Travers Looks Like Tacitus, Code of Honor Showdown
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Code of Honor
Other than a pair of seven-furlong events—the Pat O'Brien (G2) at Del Mar and the Play the King (G2) at Woodbine Racetrack—all the graded stakes in North America Aug. 24 take place at Saratoga Race Course, climaxed by the $1.25 million Runhappy Travers (G1) for 3-year-olds.
The "Midsummer Derby" airs on FOX from 5-6 p.m. EDT, and is the last of seven straight graded stakes on the card, six of which carry grade 1 status including a trio of Breeders' Cup Challenge races: The Ketel One Ballerina, the Personal Ensign Presented by Lia Infiniti and the Sword Dancer.
The stakes action kicks off with Mitole the odds-on choice in the Forego Presented by Encore Boston Harbor (G1). Following the Forego and the Ballerina, an all-seven furlong grade 1 pick three concludes with the H. Allen Jerkens Presented by Runhappy (G1), which showcases the sensational Shancelot.
The only non-grade 1 of the stakes septet is a competitive renewal of the Woodford Reserve Ballston Spa (G2T) for older fillies and mares on turf.
Although the Ballerina begins the recently introduced Empire 6 jackpot-style wager, the more realistic and sensible horseplayers among us will opt instead for the pick five with a bettor-friendly 15% rake. Let's go through the sequence spanning races 7-11.
H. Allen Jerkens (race 7, 2:59 ET): Shancelot (1) turned in a performance of historic proportions winning the 6 1/2-furlong Amsterdam (G2) by better than a dozen lengths in 1:14.01 seconds, just missing Quality Road 's track record and running a six-furlong split of 1:07.63 faster than Imperial Hint's track mark for the distance (1:07.92) set the previous day in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt (G1).
Unless he is the second coming, Shancelot probably won't replicate that race, but he can "bounce" substantially and still win. The doomsday scenario would be a tardy break from the inside post and/or getting caught in a suicidal pace duel with Call Paul (2) right to his outside. In that case, Borracho (4) is a closer in career-best form after beating older rivals over the track and distance, and our potential bust-out backup.
A - 1
B - 4
Ballston Spa (race 8, 3:35 ET): Chad Brown has three contenders but for a change they are not the most well-fancied members of the field. In fact, his triumvirate of Fifty Five (2), Significant Form (4) and Mascha (9) are third, fourth and fifth choice behind Secret Message (3) and Starship Jubilee (8), the one-two finishers in the Nassau (G2T) earlier this season at Woodbine.
Fifty Five was scratched from Friday's Yaddo against New York-breds to await this, which is taken as a sign of confidence from the connections. Significant Form could be peaking third time back. Mascha unleashed a solid late kick first time on these shores, but this may be a touch short for her.
Secret Message drops from a troubled fourth in the Diana (G1T), and this will be the first time the erstwhile claimer Starship Jubilee has run outside of either South Florida or Ontario.
Indian Blessing (5) returns from Europe and fits off any of her three races in the United States last year, including a third in this event, when she finished in front of two-time grade 1 winner A Raving Beauty while compromised by a slow pace. I doubt you'll get the 8-1 quote, but we'll see.
Scottish Jig (7) cuts back after starting her stateside career setting the pace at 10 and 12 furlongs, and the Juddmonte Farms homebred ran well at a flat mile overseas.
A - 2, 3, 5 Personal Ensign (race 9, 4:12 ET):
B - 7, 8, 9
Elate is following the same schedule as last summer when she was edged in the Personal Ensign by arch nemesis Abel Tasman and earned a career-best Equibase Speed Figure of 119 in defeat. Elate should be able to overpower Midnight Bisou, who has never won beyond 1 1/16 miles from four tries.
She's a Julie (3) could be a bit of a sleeper at 12-1 on the line. She ran huge forcing a breakneck pace and holding for second in the 2018 Alabama, and was a close third to Elate in the Fleur De Lis two back.
A - 1, 4
B - 3
Sword Dancer (race 10, 4:49 ET): Four of the five principal contenders emerge from the Bowling Green (G2T), an oddly run race won on the front end—rather surprisingly—by Channel Cat (4), who looked beaten turning for home but battled back to edge Chad Brown's Ya Primo (6), an import from Chile who managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Another neck behind in fourth was Channel Maker (8), the runner-up in last year's Sword Dancer. It was another neck and head to a buried-in-traffic Sadler's Joy (9), the 2017 Sword Dancer winner and beaten favorite in the race a year ago.
Put that quartet together 100 times and each probably wins 25, that's how evenly matched they look on paper.
The outlier is Brown's other contender, Annals of Time (7), who has not run in a stakes race since beating Beach Patrol in the 2016 Hollywood Derby (G1T) and has never been this far, but who is pegged as the 5-2 choice nevertheless. After being sidelined by myriad issues for most of 2017 and all of last year, he recently returned with two promising efforts in high-end allowance level races, running his last quarter in well under 22 seconds going a flat mile at Belmont Park, and toying with his opponents when stretched to 1 3/16 miles a month ago.
Brown is high on Ya Primo, who figures to improve second time in the Northern Hemisphere, but Annals of Time is sitting on a big one and is a major talent.
A - 6, 7
B - 8, 9
Travers (race 11, 5:44 ET): From a wagering perspective this is a terrific horse race, but let's be frank, there are no killers in this field that ballooned to 12 after the defections of Maximum Security and Game Winner.
The Dirty Dozen are collectively 0 for 18 in grade 1 company, and from 85 combined starts, they have produced exactly one triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure, the 100 awarded to Mucho Gusto (7) for running second to Maximum Security in the TVG Haskell Invitational (G1) five weeks ago.
The extra week between the Haskell and Travers this year makes things more feasible as Bob Baffert shoots for a fourth Travers win with Mucho Gusto, but I have reservations about a colt who has been out-finished twice at nine furlongs and now tries to get a classic distance after running in a lot of short fields.
In terms of ability, Owendale (1) and Tax (12) don't take a backseat to anyone. And yet, the former is a deep closer who will need considerable racing luck, and the latter will have to be used early to clear over for the lead.
This pretty much leaves me between Code of Honor (2) and Tacitus (6), which is similar to the way I felt prior to the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1). Tacitus didn't have the smoothest of trips that day, but that minor trouble turned out to be nothing compared with his extremely wide tour of Big Sandy in the Belmont Stakes (G1) and his disastruous stumble at the start of the Jim Dandy (G2). The addition of blinkers for the Travers may get Tacitus over the hump at long last, but Bill Mott is just 1-for-39 with that equipment addition since the start of last year.
Code of Honor, meanwhile, slipped through on the rail to get a brief lead turning for home in the Derby, but as it turned out he made the lead too soon and flattened out. He started the second half of the season with a solid prep winning the Dwyer (G3). Now, as with Tacitus, it is put-up-or-shut-up time. Shug McGaughey, who goes in search of his fourth Travers win, opted to bypass the Jim Dandy so as to arrive with a fresh horse. Like Owendale, who hasn't been out since winning the Ohio Derby (G3) with a perfect trip over two months ago, Code of Honor will need racing luck and a well-timed ride from Hall Of Famer John Velazquez.
A - 2, 6
B - 1, 7, 12