If someone offered the opinion back in February that one of Juddmonte Farms' 3-year-old homebreds would be favored in the Runhappy Travers Stakes (G1), they technically would have been correct.
Yet, for the most part, they would have been focusing on the wrong horse.
Six months ago, Juddmonte had the 3-year-old on the tip of the tongue of a multitude of Triple Crown observers in the dazzling maiden winner Hidden Scroll.
On no less of a stage than Pegasus World Cup Series Day at Gulfstream Park, Hidden Scroll glided like a speedboat over a soaked, sloppy track and recorded an electrifying 14-length victory in his Jan. 26 debut, covering the one-mile distance in a stunning 1:34.82 for trainer Bill Mott.
After mesmerizing the racing world, the son of Hard Spun returned a little more than a month later and was installed as the heavy 6-5 favorite in the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2).
Today, there's an empty stall at Mott's Saratoga barn with Hidden Scroll's name on it. For now, anyway, Hidden Scroll has been a one-hit wonder like the Starland Vocal Band. He finished fourth in the Fountain of Youth and sixth in the Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1). He missed the Triple Crown races but did race on Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs.
Yet he could only finish third in an allowance optional claiming race and was later sent to the farm to regroup for a fall campaign with Mott.
"He's due to be back with Bill next week," said Juddmonte general manager Garrett O'Rourke, "and hopefully he'll still have a chance to prove the tremendous talent that he obviously has."
All the while, as Hidden Scroll passed from the scene and Mott won the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) via disqualification with Country House, a horse owned by different connections, it was Juddmonte's Tacitus who emerged as the runner with the potential to give Mott his initial 3-year-old male champion.
Tacitus has gone from Juddmonte's top Kentucky Derby hopeful to the second string behind Hidden Scroll to having the torch back in his hands as the 5-2 morning-line favorite among a field of 12 in the 150th edition of the $1.25 million Travers Aug. 24 at Saratoga Race Course.
"It's funny to reflect on all of that. At one point early on, we wouldn't have been surprised to hear that Tacitus could develop into the favorite for the Travers. When he ran last year and first-time out ran a bang-up race, showing some speed, Bill was very encouraged," O'Rourke said. "What he did at 2, coupled with the prospect of where a little bit of improvement at 3 would take him, through the early winter and new year, Tacitus was our No. 1 hope. Then, all of a sudden, this beast (Hidden Scroll) worked like an absolute machine and would outwork Tacitus over sprint distances.
"Even though Hidden Scroll outworked Tacitus, Bill always had the feeling the works were over a half-mile and when they go three-quarters of a mile and then a mile and get into the classic distances, that was when Tacitus would start doing his best work, and that proved correct. The two working together like that had us in a giddy position in February. Then, unfortunately, Hidden Scroll didn't work out."
The Travers offers an opportunity for Tacitus, a son of Tapit out of the champion mare Close Hatches, to deliver a powerful statement about his stature within the 3-year-old division and brush aside some of the poor racing luck that has plagued him in recent starts.
"If you win the Travers, you do make a statement—a big statement," Mott said. "Every race he runs in is an opportunity to make a statement."
Tacitus showed promise at 2, finishing fourth in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight Oct. 4 at Belmont Park, the only time in his seven starts he failed to hit the board, and then winning by a neck in a one-mile maiden race Nov. 10 at Aqueduct Racetrack.
At 3, he elevated his game, beginning his campaign with a win March 9 in the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in his debut around two turns.
"Bill had enough confidence to believe Tacitus could win the Tampa Bay Derby in just his third start, and he thought he had a better one in the barn in Hidden Scroll, but it takes more than raw talent to win these big ones. There's durability and desire, which is needed in any sport. You better have the whole package," O'Rourke said.
Tacitus followed up that graded stakes win with an even more impressive victory in the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G2) at Aqueduct, where he overcame clipping heels and stumbling early to defeat Tax, one of his main rivals Saturday, by 1 1/4 lengths.
He was sent off at 5-1 odds in the Kentucky Derby, making him the third choice, but little has gone right for him since the starting gates opened in the Run for the Roses.
In the Kentucky Derby, he was steadied during the run to the first turn, then brushed with Game Winner while trying to rally wide as the mayhem involving the disqualified winner, Maximum Security, unfolded in front of him and jockey Jose Ortiz.
Tacitus crossed the wire fourth but was moved up to third after Maximum Security was dropped to 17th and the now-sidelined Country House was declared the winner, giving Mott his first Kentucky Derby victory in a Hall of Fame career.
Rested until the Belmont Stakes, Tacitus once again had a problematic trip as the 9-5 favorite in the June 8 Triple Crown finale. While rallying five wide on the final turn, he brushed with tiring Preakness Stakes (G1) winner War of Will at the top of the stretch, then drifted in a bit for a few strides. In the final furlong, Ortiz moved him outside a path, and he closed with gusto but fell a length shy of catching Sir Winston, settling for the place spot in the 1 1/2-mile race.
"In the Belmont, he went a little wide," Ortiz said. "But, to be honest, the plan was to follow War of Will, and I stuck to the plan. I had bad luck because War of Will came out (at the top of the stretch). We brushed a little, but if War of Will had a little more horse, (Sir Winston) never would have gotten through, and I would have won."
Tacitus returned July 27 at the Spa for the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2), and his poor racing luck reached epic proportions. Coming out of the gate, he stumbled and nearly fell, dropping back to last in a field of six. The colt made a determined run to challenge for the lead, but the stumble and racing along the slower inner part of the track caught up with him late and he finished second, three-quarters of a length behind Tax, who is listed at 6-1 odds in the Travers.
"The Jim Dandy was just filthy, but what was encouraging about it is that nine out of 10 horses who stumble like that at the start seem to run to the head of the stretch and fade, but he didn't. He ran hard to the line, and that was impressive," O'Rourke said. "If bad luck comes in threes, then hopefully he can put it all behind him."
To help his colt's cause, Mott will put blinkers on Tacitus in the Travers, and Ortiz noticed a difference in the Juddmonte color-bearer when he wore them in an Aug. 17 workout (five furlongs in 1:00.48) at Saratoga.
"He was more focused," Ortiz said. "That was what we were looking for. (Mott) didn't do it to get speed out of him. It was more to keep him focused. If he shows more speed with them, that's great, but I don't want to change his style."
The way Tacitus has trained since the Jim Dandy and the colt's solid efforts at 10 and 12 furlongs has filled Mott with hope he can win the 1 1/4-mile Travers for the first time and Tacitus can finally grab an elusive victory in a classic setting.
"I'm hoping we haven't seen the best of him yet. I'm hoping there's a really big one in him somewhere down the line. He's basically run good every time, and you hope you see one of those real good breakthrough races. For me, if it comes in the Travers, that would be great, for sure," the 66-year-old said. "He's been easy enough to train. It's been a pleasure training him. With a lot of horses, you go through some questionable times with issues and physical problems or behavioral problems, but he's been pretty straightforward about everything as far as training goes."
In some ways, Tacitus reminds O'Rourke of his dam. Close Hatches, a Juddmonte-bred and -raced daughter of First Defence out of the Storm Cat mare Rising Tornado, disappointed while finishing seventh in the 2013 Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) but managed to rebound and finish second in the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) at 3 and become the champion older mare at 4.
"She had a few hiccups as well and then became a champion as a 4-year-old," O'Rourke said.
Among the competition Saturday will be Kentucky Derby runner-up Code of Honor and Mucho Gusto, who was second to Maximum Security in the TVG.com Haskell Invitational Stakes (G1). But as important as a victory may be Saturday, without Maximum Security and Game Winner in the field, Mott believes the ultimate test of the 3-year-old champion will come down the road in the next 2 1/2 months.
"The thing is, it doesn't end at the Travers," he said about the race for an Eclipse Award. "It will go on to a couple of races where they have to meet with the older horses."
Yet on any level, nothing can diminish the value of a Travers victory, especially for a colt whose pedigree includes one of the industry's premier stallions and a dam who was a five-time grade 1 winner.
"Absolutely, a Travers win would be tremendous for him as a stallion," O'Rourke said. "I think he can go on and do more, but you have to take each step as it comes. This will be enough to make him a tremendously desirable stallion prospect. I think all breeders are looking at him at the moment as the horse of this year's crop who has the best credentials to be a lovely stallion prospect. It's up to us to get one big result now to put him into that position.
"He's a lovely blend of his sire and his dam, and he has the classic distance aptitude of Tapit and he definitely has the desire and toughness of his mother. She had a very competitive nature, and I am delighted that he seemed to inherit that from her."
While plans for next year have not been discussed at great length, for now the spotlights falls on the Midsummer Derby and a chance for Tacitus to become the grade 1 winner people expected from Juddmonte this year.
"It's something you always hear trainers say, the ability to handle the toughness and the rigors of the Triple Crown trail and then the preparation for the Travers. So, if you're still standing at this time of the year, that's part of what earns you a championship," O'Rourke said. "There are not a lot left standing, and I'm proud to say, touching wood as I do it, that he's one who is still standing and still performing at the very top end. There's a lot of credit due him, and I hope he'll get rewarded."