Improbable Looms a Probable for Pennsylvania Derby

About a week ago, a great racing trivia question would have been "Who was the favorite in the 2019 Kentucky Derby?"

And, in fact, you also could add the Preakness Stakes (G1) to that question, as it was the same horse.

Some might still be stumped, but a reminder of the answer was rather vividly offered  Aug. 25, when Improbable, who was indeed the beaten betting choice in both the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) and the Preakness, returned from a three-month break and posted a sharp 2 3/4-length victory over highly regarded King Jack in the $98,000 Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar.

"That was pretty impressive," trainer Bob Baffert said. 

Impressive enough that Baffert has the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby (G1) at Parx Racing Sept. 21 on Improbable's agenda, if all goes well in the coming weeks.

"We'll look at the Pennsylvania Derby for Improbable. He deserves that after (Sunday)," Baffert said of the 3-year-old owned by WinStar Farm, China Horse Club International, and Starlight Racing.

Baffert also said Michael Lund Petersen's Mucho Gusto, third Aug. 24 in the $1.25 million Runhappy Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratoga Race Course, is a possibility for the Pennsylvania Derby.

"We'll see how Mucho Gusto comes out of the Travers. He's on the fence," said Baffert, who added that Game Winner, who missed the Travers due to a virus, would not be ready for a trip to Parx. "I don't think Mucho Gusto brought his 'A' game (in the Travers). He ran all right, but he ran hard in the Haskell (when he was second). He got a little tired at the end, but he was coming back quick (from the July 20 TVG.com Haskell Invitational Stakes, G1) and was a last-minute deal (after Game Winner's defection). He wasn't really prepped for it. I was hoping we could get an easy lead with him and maybe run second."

Other possible starters in the 1 1/8-mile Pennsylvania Derby include disqualified Kentucky Derby winner Maximum Security, who has been looking sharp lately, according to owner Gary West, Preakness winner War of Will, and Mr. Money, who has won his past four starts, all in grade 3 company.

Baffert also had some doubts about Improbable's conditioning in his first start since the May 18 Preakness, but they evaporated in the 1:37.53 the son of City Zip needed to cover the two-turn mile in the Shared Belief while racing with blinkers for the first time since a runner-up finish April 13 in the Arkansas Derby (G1).

"I was a little bit nervous because I might have had a little bit too much blinker on him and he was rank on us. He had never showed us much gate speed coming away and he's a fast horse, but he had the perfect post, wasn't in the gate long, and flew out of there and got into it early," said Baffert, whose 3-year-old broke from the outside post in a field of four. "He used himself early but then he kicked clear in the stretch. He looked good. He was a lot more ready than I thought he was. I was sort of cold-watering everyone because I was scared of (King Jack). I was reading all those stories on that horse and I started believing it. But what was I worrying about? I had the favorite in the Kentucky Derby."

Starlight Racing's managing partner and CEO Jack Wolf didn't mind the two-time Triple Crown-winning trainer making one of his rare 'mistakes.'

"Bob wasn't sure if the horse was ready, but obviously it was the once out of 100 times when Bob is wrong," Wolf said.

Aside from showing improved speed from the start—Improbable was second by a head through a half-mile in :46.63—the chestnut grade 1 winner behaved much better while being loaded into the starting gate than he did in his most recent starts, which were a sixth in the Preakness as the 5-2 favorite and being moved up to fourth as the 4-1 choice in the Kentucky Derby.

"With this horse, half the battle is to get him to relax, settle, and get away in good order," Wolf said. "He certainly did it better than the last two starts. I watched the Derby and the Preakness again yesterday and he wasted so much energy in the starting gate it was crazy. I also thought he ran a little bit straighter down the stretch Sunday."

As for the Pennsylvania Derby, Wolf said it would be "beneficial" to face 3-year-olds in the colt's second start after the layoff.

Improbable was bred by St. George Farm and G. Watts Humphrey Jr. and sold for $110,000 to Taylor Made Sales Agency, agent, at the 2016 Keeneland November Breeding Sale. He was then bought by WinStar's Maverick Racing and China Horse Club for $200,000 from the Taylor Made consignment at the 2017 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. In eight starts, he has four wins and two seconds and earnings of $829,520.

West, who along with his wife, Mary, owns both Haskell victor Maximum Security and Game Winner, said Maximum Security, a homebred son of New Year's Day, is making good progress for trainer Jason Servis and should be ready for the Pennsylvania Derby, which serves as the year's final grade 1 dirt stakes at nine furlongs or longer restricted to 3-year-olds.

"Maximum Security needed some time off after the Haskell but he's coming along really well and we expect to be 100% ready to go for the Pennsylvania Derby," West said.

West also said that 2-year-old champion Game Winner has yet to fully recover from his virus and the setting for his next start is uncertain.

"With a virus, you never know how long it will knock a horse out. It could be two days or two months," West said of the son of Candy Ride . "We're not going to rush him. We won't run against the best horses in the world until he's 100% ready to do it. That's how we do things."