Handicapping Keeneland, Part II

Betting turf races at Keeneland is a much different challenge than betting grass races at tracks during the summer months. What are some things to look for? (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)

The hallmarks of fall are cooler weather, leaves turning from green to yellow, and, of course, a spectacular month of racing at Keeneland.

The picturesque Lexington, Ky., track opened Sept. 4 for a 17-day meet, and its first three days were reflective of why so many fans focus their wagering dollars on each day’s card.

Large, competitive fields are the norm at Keeneland, not the exception, and not even some miserable weather on Saturday and Sunday could spoil that.

Having a synthetic Polytrack racing surface gives Keeneland a decided edge over a dirt track like Saratoga when Mother Nature decides to interfere with a card. A storm at the Spa forces grass horses to run – and often flounder – in mud and usually leads to a long list of scratches. But at Keeneland, the switch from grass to an all-weather surface is not as dramatic.

The handicapping premise that racing on Polytrack is akin to racing on turf was vividly illustrated when a downpour forced a switch to the main track.

A combined four races were moved from the turf to the main track on Saturday and Sunday – including the Shadwell Turf Mile with reigning Horse of the Year Wise Dan – and in three of them, the horses that were the top two morning-line choices on turf ran 1-2 on Polytrack. In the other race, the morning-line favorite finished second.

So even when raindrops are falling on everyone’s heads, at Keeneland there’s no real need to revise your handicapping.

That tip about what to do when umbrellas come out is just one of a few angles to watch and keep in mind at Keeneland. We covered some of them in an America’s Best Racing blog last year, and now here’s Chapter II:

FIRM IS NOT ALWAYS FIRM: Given the rain and time of year, handicappers would be wise in turf races to find horses who have demonstrated sharp form in early spring or fall turf races at circuits where the weather is cooler. A horse that has thrived on summer-baked, rock-hard turf courses in July and August might be vulnerable in the fall on a course with more give in the ground.
Both surfaces might officially be labeled as “firm” but there’s surely a difference in them and the firm, yet softer, turf in the fall might be a blessing to closers who had been banging their head against the wall trying to close on summer turf courses that felt like asphalt.

WHAT’S THE HURRY: The synthetic main track at Keeneland plays no favorites, though if there’s an edge anywhere, the outer paths might be a slightly better path to the winner’s circle than the rail.
That, of course, is bad news for front-runners, who usually thrive at the average racetrack where their ability to cut over to the inside and save ground gives them an edge. At Keeneland, they have their work cut out for them.

The early results from the fall meet reflect the inherent difficulty in trying to go gate-to-wire at Keeneland. It is not impossible, but having early speed is certainly not a valuable asset.
Of the 29 races through Sunday, a horse has led throughout only four times for a winning percentage of slightly less than 14-percent.

The breakdown is that the front-runner won 2 of 14 sprint races on the main track and 2 of 12 route races. In three turf races, two of them routes and one sprint, the eventual winners were fourth, seventh and 10th after the opening quarter-mile.

Speed rules? Not at Keeneland.

RAMSEY’S RUN: Perhaps the safest bet this meet is that Ken and Sarah Ramsey will be the leading owners. They topped the standings at Gulfstream Park, Keeneland in the spring, Churchill Downs in the spring, Saratoga Race Course and Churchill Downs in the fall.

They already have four winners through three racing days and should widen their lead as the meet goes on.

Hopping on board with the Ramsey Express will not be hard as plenty of their runners should be rather easy to spot on the toteboard. Three of their four winners at the meet were favorites.

The Ramseys’ other winner was We Miss Artie who took the Breeders’ Futurity at 9-to-1 odds.

All in all, backing a Ramsey longshot in a stakes might be more rewarding than betting on one of their odds-on favorites in a claiming race as they closed out the 2013 Keeneland spring meet by winning the Elkhorn Stakes with Dark Cove, also at 9-to-1 odds.

Apparently whoever said you can’t win ’em all forgot to tell the Ramseys. If there’s a 2013 owners’ title they don’t win, that just might be the sport’s most stunning news of the year.

Bob Ehalt, aside from writing for America’s Best Racing and ESPN.com, founded the Hot List handicapping service which turned a flat-bet profit at the 2013 Keeneland spring meet for Keenelandselect.com.