Gauging the Market After Season's First Yearling Sales

The first three North American yearling sales of 2019—all conducted, as it happens, by Fasig-Tipton—are in the books. In spite of just about everyone agreeing the market remains strong "for the right horse," all three sales were down in gross. The main event, The Saratoga Sale, was up 11% in average, although 13% fewer were cataloged and 21% fewer sold (a 6% drop in the clearance rate from the catalog from 67% to 61%) than in 2018.

The three sales combined (Fasig-Tipton's The July Sale, Saratoga, and the New York-Bred Sale) had a total of 919 yearlings cataloged (2018 had 931), of which 523 sold, which was 56.9% of those catalogued. It was a 1% drop from 2018, when 57.8% of those cataloged were sold at the three sales. The combined gross was $90,368,000, a drop of 11% from last year's record sales of $101,048,500. The combined average was $172,788, a dip of 8% from last year's combined average of $187,822.

However, the 2019 gross was still more than $5 million above the 2017 combined gross of $85,316,000, and the 2019 average was over $5,000 higher than the 2017 combined average of $167,286. The North American yearling market as a whole jumped a massive $84 million in 2018, a 19% gain over 2017 revenues, so it may be that these 2019 declines are nothing more than a natural regression after a massive jump.

However, as everyone in the racing business in North America knows, we're living in a different world now than we were 12 months ago. There is certainly a possibility that new investment in American racehorses has been suppressed by the unprecedented bad publicity with which the business has been battered this year. There are plenty of U.S. industry professionals who have anecdotally reported that in their non-racing social circles politicians, lawyers, bankers, and journalists are now less unpopular than horse racing professionals. And although the industry is taking these assaults seriously, it's unlikely any industry fightback is going to encourage much new money at the yearling sales this year.

Notwithstanding all the pressures, nine sires with three or more yearlings sold at the three sales have averaged more than $350,000, with the top three averaging over $600,000: Curlin  (10 sold/avg $835,000), Medaglia d'Oro  (6/$720,833), and Tapit  (5/$620,000). Quality Road  (5/$485,000), American Pharoah  (7/$469,286), and Candy Ride  (5/$410,000) averaged over $400,000. Into Mischief  (13/$396,538), Pioneerof the Nile  (8/$387,500), and Ghostzapper  (8/$360,000) round out the top nine by yearling average at this point of the proceedings.

It does seem a deep and interesting group of first-year sires at this year's yearling sales, and thus far no fewer than 10 of them have averaged over $120,000 with three or more yearlings sold. Darley Jonabell stands the top two: Tapit's son Frosted , who won the then-grade 1 Twinspires.com Wood Memorial, ran fourth and second to American Pharoah  in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) and Belmont Stakes presented by DraftKings (G1), and won the 2016 Mohegan Sun Metropolitan Handicap (G1) by daylight; and Nyquist , from the first crop of Uncle Mo  and only the second horse, after Street Sense , to win the Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) and the following year's Kentucky Derby. Remarkably, to date, Frosted has had 15 yearlings sell for an average of $271,333. Nyquist is inches behind, with 12 yearlings to date averaging $270,417. Claiborne's Runhappy , the champion sprinter of 2015 when he won three grade 1s including the TwinSpires Breeders' Cup Sprint, is the only other first-year yearling sire with two or more sold to average in the 200's, as he has had 10 yearlings sell so far for an average of $254,200.

Other sires with first yearlings and six-figure averages so far: Coolmore's Air Force Blue  (4/$167,500); Taylor Made's Mshawish  (2/$167,500); three from WinStar—Exaggerator  (7/$151,429), Speightster  (15/$125,133), and Outwork  (18/$122,750); Airdrie Stud's Upstart  (9/$135,556); and Taylor Made's California Chrome  (4/$126,250). Hill 'n' Dale's Flintshire  has had one sell, for $210,000; for him as for most of the rest of these, the quantities will be a lot bigger at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

As we're getting ready to launch into the yearling sales season in earnest—Arqana's August Sale is next up, Aug. 17-19 in Deauville—I am also running the latest up-to-the-minute data on North American second- and third-crop sires for reference, and I'll keep up to date with these statistics, as well as the yearling sale statistics and averages, over the next few weeks. At this writing, Korean-based Take Charge Indy is the leading North American third-crop sire over Hill 'n' Dale's Violence ; Coolmore's Camelot is the leading European third-crop sire; Spendthrift's Goldencents  is the leading North American second-crop sire; and Coolmore's No Nay Never and Juddmonte's Kingman are the leading European second-crop sires.