Keeneland September: The International Supermarket

From 2013-16, about 2,800 yearlings were sold each year over two weeks during the Keeneland September Yearling Sale, the world's largest yearling supermarket that grossed around $280 million and averaged about $100,000 annually.

In 2017, there was finally some growth. Though only 2,555 were sold, they grossed $307 million and averaged $120,487. In 2018, the market really took off: From 4,518 yearlings cataloged, there were 2,916 listed sales, the gross jumped 22% to $377 million, and the average—with 14% more yearlings sold—edged up another 7% to $129,335.

Interestingly, the big gains last year were in the second week, which had one more day of selling (nine) but was up almost $50 million in gross and $10,000 in average. In a two-year period, the September gross has risen more than $100 million, and the average has gained around $30,000.

There are 4,644 yearlings cataloged to Keeneland September this year over 13 sessions, the same number as 2018. The distribution is different from last year, which had a four-day Book 1 with 989 yearlings cataloged, but it is actually more like the previous five years, with 569 cataloged in a three-day Book 1 and another 730 cataloged in the two-day Book 2. So Week 1 will be five sessions, as was the case from 2013-16, with a total of 1,299 cataloged.

The 569 yearlings in Book 1 are sired by 54 stallions, but 15 of them are responsible for 425 yearlings—75% of Book 1. The 2015 Triple Crown winner and current leading freshman sire, American Pharoah , has 42 cataloged in Book 1, followed by Curlin  (41), Medaglia d'Oro  (39), Uncle Mo  (37), and Tapit  (36). Into Michief (33), War Front  (31), Pioneerof the Nile (29), and Quality Road  (27) come next, so of the nine sires with 25 or more entered in the sale, eight have between five and 12 crops on the racetrack, American Pharoah the only exception.

Veterans Candy Ride  (21), Empire Maker  (19), Kitten's Joy  (18), Malibu Moon  (17), and Speightstown  (17) each have 15 or more in Book 1, along with Frosted  (18), the top first-year sire by Book 1 representation. So 13 of the 15 sires with the highest numbers in Book 1 all have a minimum of five crops racing; proven sires dominate.

Four sires have 30 or more each in Book 2, which actually makes them the top four sires by overall representation through the entire sale. Into Mischief has 33 in Book 2, plus another 24 in Book 3, and is the overall leader with 93 cataloged throughout the sale. American Pharoah (30 in Book 2) and Uncle Mo (33) come next, with 90 and 86 cataloged, respectively. Union Rags , who has 39 in Book 2 and 10 in Book 1, has 79 in the sale.

There are 51 sires with 40 or more yearlings; they account for 2,949 yearlings, or 63% of the total catalog.

Eleven of the 51 are first-year yearling sires. The highest representation is from WinStar Farm's Exaggerator , who has only three in Book 1 but 61 in the next three books and 78 overall. Darley's Frosted, who has 25 in Book 2 and 21 in Book 3 to go with his 18 in Book 1, has 71 cataloged.

Taylor Made Stallions' duo of Not This Time  and California Chrome  have 67 and 59, respectively, followed by Claiborne Farm's Runhappy  with 54. WinStar's Speightster  (54) and Outwork  (43) have both averaged over $120,000 at the sales so far, off stud fees of $10,000 and $15,000, respectively.

Airdrie Stud's Upstart  (53) has had nine yearlings average over $135,000 off a $10,000 fee himself. Coolmore is represented by crack 2-year-olds Air Force Blue  (in Europe, 52) and Vancouver (in Australia, 41), while Darley's Nyquist , who is battling it out with barnmate Frosted for first-year yearling sire supremacy by yearling average, has 50 cataloged.

Five sires with their first 2-year-olds have 50 or more cataloged, though American Pharoah (42 Book 1/90 overall) is the only one with significant Book 1 representation. Lane's End's Liam's Map  has just two in Book 1 but 70 overall, while Honor Code  has eight in Book 1 among 68 overall. WinStar's Carpe Diem  has just four in Book 1 but 69 overall, while the second-leading freshman sire, Constitution , has none in Book 1 but 53 overall.

After 30% gains over the past two years, and considering the 11% fall in revenues at the three Fasig-Tipton yearling sales, it wouldn't be a big shock if Keeneland September dropped back some from the $70 million gains of 2018. On the other hand, those who were there for Arqana's four-day August plus v.2 yearling sales might not be expecting falls in September at all; those sales combined set new records for gross (€47 million), average (€290,487 for the select Saturday-Sunday sessions, €138,167 for the whole four days), and median, with the gross up 17% from 2018.