Improbable the Likely Favorite in Pennsylvania Derby

What promised to be one of most intriguing rematches of the year has turned into another disappointing example of how quickly a situation can change in Thoroughbred racing.

A bizarre year for 3-year-old males took another unexpected turn Sept. 17 when it announced that Maximum Security, who will always be remembered as the first Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) winner to be disqualified for a racetrack foul, will not run Sept. 21 in the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby (G1) at Parx Racing due to a large colon nephrosplenic entrapment.

That medical issue scrapped plans for the first meeting of Gary and Mary's West's Maximum Security and Gary Barber's Preakness Stakes (G1) winner War of Will, the two horses at the center of the bumping incident in the Run for the Roses, and left a field of six for the 1 1/8-mile test in the Keystone State.

"That's disappointing for horse racing," said Mark Casse, who trains War of Will, the 4-1 third-choice on the revised morning line. "It makes our job easier, but you don't like to see those things happen to anyone. It looks like he'll be OK and they seemed to have dodged a bullet and I'm happy to hear that for the Wests and (trainer Jason Servis)."

The news also left two-time Triple Crown-winning trainer Bob Baffert with an empty feeling. Baffert trains the Wests' 2-year-old champion Game Winner, who missed the Runhappy Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratoga Race Course due to an illness, and felt badly after hearing that Maximum Security would be sidelined.

"Poor Gary West. That's a big blow. He can't catch a break," said Baffert, who trains WinStar Farm, China Horse Club International and Starlight Racing's Improbable, who may now go off as the favorite in the Pennsylvania Derby. "We were coming anyway, but I don't like hearing that. I cringe when I hear it and I feel sorry for the horse and everyone involved with him. I know it can happen to me and my horses and it takes away from the race. That's why racing is so up-and-down; everything always has to work out perfectly. That why horses like (Triple Crown winners) American Pharoah  and Justify  had to be great, but tough, too."

In losing Maximum Security, a key stakes in the race for the 3-year-old championship was not only deprived of its 9-5 morning-line favorite, but the star power of a homebred son of New Year's Day who rose from a $16,000 claimer in his debut to cross the wire first in the Kentucky Derby and win the $1 million TVG.com Haskell Invitational (G1) in his last start.

"Maximum Security was the horse to beat. It's a shame because he's a really good horse and it's exciting to watch him run," said Baffert, who won three of the last five runnings of the Pennsylvania Derby, including the last two with McKinzie (2018) and the Wests' West Coast . "He has everything you want. He's tactical. He has speed. He has gears. I hate to hear about this because we need great racing. You always want to beat the best."

Without the speedy and controversial two-time grade 1 winner in the starting gate, the complexion of the Pennsylvania Derby surely changed. After the son of War Front  inexplicably raced on the lead while finishing fifth in his last start—the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) at Saratoga Race Course—Casse was hoping that jockey Tyler Gaffalione could keep the son of War Front off the pace and surge to victory in the stretch, as they did in the Preakness.

"It changes the race a lot," Casse said. "I was looking forward to him being in there because I thought there would be some heavy concentration on Maximum Security and a quicker pace. Now with him out of there, where's the focus? This will change the complexity of the race. I wanted our horse to have a nice target. Does this make it easier? Sure. Maximum Security was the horse to beat. But it also changes how the race sets up and I'm not sure if that's an advantage to us."

The Pennsylvania Derby shapes up as a major test for War of Will, who is out of the Sadler's Wells mare Visions of Clarity and was bred by Flaxman Holdings Limited. After winning the Preakness, he faded to ninth in the Belmont Stakes (G1), though Casse blamed that on the 3-year-old not handling the track. The trainer had no excuses for the Jim Dandy, however, where War of Will showed an unusual turn of early speed and faded to finish fifth, five lengths behind the victorious Tax.

"In the Jim Dandy, I don't have a big excuse for what happened," said Casse, whose horse was moved up to seventh in the Run for the Roses and will break from post four Saturday. "The only thing was that he was put in a different situation than he ever was before by being on the lead. But I don't know. All we can do was regroup. We gave him some time and he responded well, as you can see in his works tab (most recently a bullet, four-furlong breeze in :47.40 seconds Sept. 14 at Belmont Park). They don't get better than that. He's ready to go and we'll find out where he stands with the best 3-year-olds."

A winner of four of 12 starts with earnings of $1,515,569, War of Will was a $298,550 purchase from the Oak Tree Farm consignment at the 2018 Arqana May 2-Year-Old Breeze Up Sale after being RNA'd for $175,000 from the Lane's End consignment at the 2017 Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

If Improbable, the new 8-5 choice on the morning-line, winds up as the betting favorite over multiple graded stakes winner Mr. Money, it should come as no surprise. After all, the Baffert trainee was the beaten favorite in both the Kentucky Derby (moved up to fourth) and the Preakness (sixth) when he was unruly prior to the start of both classics. After a three-month break, Baffert added blinkers and the son of City Zip behaved better in the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar, pressing the pace and then drawing off to a 2 3/4-length triumph for his first win in five starts at 3.

"The freshening really helped and now this is last chance against 3-year-olds and there's a million dollars on the line, so it's a big race," Baffert said of his grade 1 winner at 2. "He needs to be ridden aggressively and (jockey Mike Smith) will have get rolling at the start from post two."

Bred by St. George Farm and G. Watts Humphrey Jr. out of the A.P. Indy mare Rare Event, Improbable was purchased for $200,000 by Maverick Racing and China Horse Club for $200,000 at the 2017 Keeneland September Yearling Sale from the Taylor Made Sales Agency consignment. Taylor Made acquired him for $110,000 from the Lane's End consignment at the 2016 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale.

For Allied Racing Stable's Mr. Money, the Pennsylvania Derby offers a chance to make up for a lost opportunity in the Triple Crown. Fourth in the Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) a year ago, Mr. Money was expected to follow the Louisiana route to Louisville for the Kentucky Derby. But a mix of setbacks led to unplaced finishes in two stakes at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots and left him off the Triple Crown trail in favor of stablemate By My Standards, who beat him while winning the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (G2).

The son of Goldencents  returned in the Pat Day Mile Presented by LG and E and KU (G3) on Kentucky Derby Day and rolled to a 5 1/4-length win that was followed by wins in the Matt Winn Stakes (G3), Indiana Derby (G3) and West Virginia Derby (G3) by a combined 15 lengths that have him primed for a clash with proven grade 1 winners.

"This is what we have been looking forward to," said trainer Bret Calhoun, whose colt, the 2-1 second choice in the new morning line, will break from the outside post in the field of six. "The way we've managed him, we've made a quite a bit of money with him and there's been pretty good spacing that has kept him fresh. We've been pointing to this race for a while and looking forward to taking on the big horses. Hopefully we get lucky enough to come out on top and that will position us among the top horses in the division."

A winner of five of 10 starts, Mr. Money has earned $1,074,220 and was bought by J. Stevens Bloodstock for $130,000 from the Woods Edge Farm consignment at the 2017 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Out of the Tiznow mare Plenty O'Toole, he was bred by Mike McMahon's Spruce Lane Farm, who had a half sister by Awesome Again  sell for $350,000 to Tracy Farmer from the Denali Stud consignment as Hip 587 last week at the Keeneland sale.

"We're lucky to watch these guys do well with Mr. Money," McMahon said.

The field of six also includes Spun to Run, who has the advantage of race over the track by virtue of winning the Smarty Jones Stakes on Sept. 2 and was third behind Maximum Security in the Haskell; Art Wizard, a $25,000 claim who was third in the Indiana Derby, four lengths behind Mr. Money; and the seemingly overmatched maiden Shanghai Superfly, who was second, beaten eighth lengths, in a $50,000 maiden claimer Sept. 7 at Monmouth Park.

The Pennsylvania Derby will be the 11th race on a 13-race card that also features the $1 million Cotillion Stakes (G1) for 3-year-old fillies and the $300,000 Gallant Bob Stakes (G2) for 3-year-olds at six furlongs.

Post time is scheduled for 5:48 p.m.

Entries: Pennsylvania Derby (G1)

Parx Racing, Saturday, September 21, 2019, Race 11

• Grade I
• 1 1/8m
• Dirt
• $1,000,000
• 3 yo
• 5:48 PM (local)

PP	Horse	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1Math Wizard (KY)	Edgard J. Zayas	117	Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.	8/1
2	2Improbable (KY)	Mike E. Smith	119	Bob Baffert	3/1
3	3Shanghai Superfly (KY)	Frankie Pennington	117	Marcos Zulueta	30/1
4	4War of Will (KY)	Tyler Gaffalione	124	Mark E. Casse	5/1
5	5Spun to Run (KY)	Paco Lopez	122	Juan Carlos Guerrero	8/1
6	6Mr. Money (KY)	Gabriel Saez	122	W. Bret Calhoun	4/1
7	7Maximum Security (KY)	Luis Saez	124	Jason Servis	9/5