Parx Racing Focus on Busy Day of Stakes Handicapping

While technically the last Saturday of summer, the stakes racing menu Sept. 21 sure has a fall-like feel to it, as a handful of tracks put on multi-stakes cards. Most notable among them is Parx Racing, where seven stakes will be run and 3-year-olds are spotlighted in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1), Cotillion (G1) and Gallant Bob (G2).

The Pennsylvania Derby and Cotillion, a Breeders' Cup Challenge race for the Longines Distaff (G1), will be televised on NBC from 5-6 p.m. EDT.

Laurel Park puts on eight stakes headed by the Baltimore/Washington International Turf Cup (G3T) and Xpressbet Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash (G3). 

Hollywood Casino At Charles Town Races offers seven stakes, with the Charles Town Oaks (G3) for sophomore fillies heading the list.

Belmont Park puts on a couple of one-mile events, the Noble Damsel (G3T) for older fillies and mares on turf and the Kelso Handicap (G2) on dirt for 3-year-olds and up.

At Churchill Downs, the crack sprinter Covfefe, last seen winning the Longines Test (G1), uses the $125,000 Dogwood as a stepping stone to the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1).

For those so inclinded, the Pennsylvania Derby, Cotillion and Gallant Bob are part of another cross-country pick five along with the Kelso and $100,000 Sweet Briar Too from Woodbine Racetrack. That sequence lost some star power earlier in the week when Maximum Security was scratched from the Pennsylvania Derby after suffering a bout of colic, and Catholic Boy was not entered in the Kelso due to minor soreness.

Here are some of the spots we've picked out.

Gallant Bob (Prx, race 9, 4:34 ET): This six-furlong dash kicks off a pick three that looks fairly straightforward, and becomes all the more enticing if you can knock off King Jack (7), the 2-1 morning-line favorite.

King Jack won his first two starts before running a clear second in the Shared Belief behind Improbable, who has inherited the role of favorite in the Pennsylvania Derby. The problem with King Jack is that he has yet to run against a pace (rounded off) faster than 22 1/5 and 45 3/5 seconds, and just about everyone else in the field has run against faster fractions than those. Maybe, as his figures suggest, he's simply the most talented runner in the field and can overcome. Win or lose, that's a big unknown on a short-priced horse.

Note also that "Big Money Mike" Smith is off King Jack in favor of Bulletin (9), who is virtual co-second choice along with Landeskog (6).

Bulletin's unknown is the surface because all of his races have been on grass. But the half-full view is his pedigree. His sire City Zip swept Saratoga Race Course's series of juvenile stakes in 2000 and won four more stakes at 3, and his dam was a stakes winner on dirt who has produced a $1 million dirt earner. Plus, he is a sharp breaker and drawn outside so kickback shouldn't be an issue.

Landeskog exits a fast-paced allowance win at 5 1/2 furlongs over Distinctive B, an older seven-time winner of $375K who ran second last year in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G1). His three main rivals—Bulletin, King Jack and Trophy Chaser (3)—are all cutting back from longer races, so perhaps he gets the jump on them.

A - 6, 9

B - 3, 7

Cotillion (Prx, race 10, 5:14 ET): How is the rail playing? That's the question that needs to be addressed after sizing up the day's earlier dirt races because the inside paths can be notoriously deep at Parx, and the main speed of this matchup, Serengeti Empress (1), breaks from the rail with a short run to the first turn while two accomplished opponents, Bellafina (10) and Jaywalk (11) are drawn widest.

Guarana (8) rose meteorically to the top of the division in early summer. To come out and beat Serengeti Empress—the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner—by six lengths as a second-time starter is heady stuff, to be sure. The daughter of Ghostzapper  (another total freak) returned to win the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) with a last three furlongs in a solid 36 seconds, this despite shying from a left-hand whip, and it's reasonable to think she may improve after getting two months to freshen up off that experience. 

Jaywalk is capable on her best, but her best has only been on display when she can boss her opponents around, and that does not look to be the case here.

A - 8

B - 1

Pennsylvania Derby (Prx, race 11, 5:48 ET): In addition to inheriting the role of favorite, Improbable (2) looks to have become the controlling speed. Indeed, after the son of City Zip was beaten as the chalk in both the Woodford Reserve Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness (G1) under rating tactics, a pace-pressing return win over King Jack in the Shared Belief suggests Bob Baffert—who has shipped in the past two winners of this race in West Coast  and McKinzie—has decided to let the sometimes hard-to-handle colt roll early.

Mr. Money (6) finally arrives on the big stage after racking up four impressive wins in grade 3 company, beginning with a lengthy score in the Pat Day Mile (G3) that was flattered when runner-up Hog Creek Hustle returned to win the Woody Stephens (G1) and finish a close second in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1). He has fired three bullet works since taking the West Virginia Derby (G3) by six lengths, and should work out another stalking trip.

Deeper tickets may want to use Preakness winner War of Will (4) and/or Smarty Jones (G3) winner Spun to Run (5), but we're not.

A - 2, 6

Backups - none

Kelso Handicap (Bel, race 10, 5:57 ET): This race is there for the taking with Catholic Boy out of the picture and cases can be made for just about any of the seven entrants, the most accomplished of which are Prince Lucky (5), already a three-time stakes winner this year, and Pat On the Back (3), a hard-hitting New York-bred who would surpass $1 million in earnings if able to post his sixth win over Big Sandy.

Pat On the Back was freshened after a hard-fought victory in the Commentator in late May, and returned with a useful tightener, dueling to deep stretch in the Tale Of The Cat at a distance much shorter than his best. This looks like a bridge to a defense of his Empire Classic title.

The two that appear closest to the favorites ability-wise are True Timber (2) and Plainsman (6).

True Timber beat eventual 2018 Kelso winner Patternrecognition on this track last summer and finished a close second to that rival in the Cigar Mile Handicap Presented By NYRA Bets (G1) to close out his 4-year-old season. Off-the-board finishes early this year in a sloppy edition of the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) and the Godolphin Mile Sponsored By Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum City-District One (G2) without Lasix look excusable.

Plainsman finished off 2018 with three straight wins for Brad Cox, capped by the Discovery (G3). He returned at the Spa for new trainer Shug McGaughey, and was a rallying second to Uncontested in a high-end optional claimer that went in 1:20.52 seconds, just off the track record of 1:20.40 that Darby Creek Road was credited with back in 1978. Plainsman drops six pounds off that race and should only improve stretching out second time back.

A - 3, 5

B - 2, 6

Charles Town Oaks (CT, race 11, 10:15 ET): Before you turn in for the night, just check to make sure Irish Mischief (2) is not really anything like the 8-1 quote on the morning line. That would be some kind of value on a Brad Cox-trained filly who is well drawn in this two-turn race at seven furlongs and whose last two Equibase Speed Figures (97 & 99), coinciding with the addition of blinkers, are exceeded only by the 105 recorded by 7-2 favorite Fashion Faux Pas (7) three starts back. Fashion Faux Pas returns just 19 days after taking a funny step in the Cathryn Sophia and being pulled up on the far turn. That she was able to come back and post a bullet five-furlong work last Saturday is encouraging, but I'll play against her with Irish Mischief if the latter is a square price.