Searching for Vulnerable Favorites on Big Race Day

With Breeders' Cup five weeks away, the first Saturday of autumn is a prime window for final preps, and the "Big Three" fall tracks—Belmont Park, Churchill Downs and Santa Anita Park—have multiple stakes programs with important preps lined up. 

Belmont's four stakes Sept. 27 include two Breeders' Cup Challenge races, the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and the Vosburgh (G1).

The same goes for Santa Anita, where four stakes include two "Win-and-You're-In" races, the Awesome Again (G1) and the Rodeo Drive (G1T). 

Three stakes beneath the twin spires are highlighted by the Ack Ack (G3), which typically produces a starter or two for the Big Ass Fans Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1), and the Lukas Classic (G3).

A lot of these races have a chalky feel to them, as is often the case at this stage of the season. So instead of the usual A-B-C contender rankings it seemed the question to ask, first and foremost, is whether it's worth trying to beat the favorite, which we have answered either "yay" or "nay."

BELMONT

Vosburgh (race 4, 2:35 ET): Imperial Hint (4) was 1-5 when he came off a win in the 2018 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (G1) to win this race a year ago, and will be a similar price to do it again after lowering Saratoga Race Course's six-furlong track record to 1:07.92. 

Second choice Firenze Fire (6) was 10 lengths behind in the Vandy.

Verdict: Nay. Just going to watch the little rocket fly.

Beldame (race 8, 4:43 ET): Midnght Bisou (1) has won all six of her starts in 2019, beating the venerable Elate three times along the way, and she is tabbed at 2-5 against five opponents. The most dangerous of those is last year's Beldame winner, Wow Cat (6), but she was 10 lengths behind the favorite in the Personal Ensign (G1) last time.

Verdict: Nay.

Pilgrim (race 9, 5:16 ET): Structor (7) is the 5-2 choice off a slow-paced debut win on the Spa's inner turf Aug. 31, and that morning-line can largely be attributed to the Chad Brown Factor, since second choice No Word (2) won his career bow in considerably faster time later that same day on the outer course.

Three days earlier, Tuggle (1),  Andesite (3) and Our Country (6) were all compromised by a dawdling pace and difficult trips in the With Anticipation (G3T).

Verdict: Yay. Andesite is 10-1 on the line and may be overlooked, while Our Country will be a better price after a brutal trip at 6-5 last time.

Jockey Club Gold Cup (race 10, 5:49 ET): I'm not even sure who the favorite will be here, as the 3-year-olds Tacitus (1) and Code of Honor (2) take on older rivals Vino Rosso (3) and Preservationist (4). Those who are on Tacitus have the "Litfin At Large Off" angle working, because I signed the divorce papers shortly after his perplexing on-the-pace journey in the Travers with blinkers on.

Code of Honor got the setup he needed and capitalized big-time in the Mid-summer Derby under good handling from Hall of Famer John Velazquez, who was tied with Jerry Bailey for most all-time graded stakes wins (660) heading into Saturday. Shug McGaughey bypassed last week's Pennsylvania Derby (G1) to await this.

Vino Rosso flattened out to wind up third in the Whitney (G1), finishing ahead of subsequent Woodward (G1) winner Preservationist, whose trainer, Jimmy Jerkens, is on the mend and doing well following hip surgery earlier this week.

Verdict: Nay. It's not much of a betting race but we'll be watching with interest nonetheless.

SANTA ANITA

John Henry Turf Championship (race 7, 3:38 PT): For a grade 2, this 10-furlong turf race came up pretty light considering that aside from Acclimate (8), the 4-1 co-third choice after winning the San Juan Capistrano (G3T) and Del Mar Handicap (G2T) over the summer, the others are 1-for-25 in graded stakes and the lone win was Grecian Fire's (6) All American (G3) on a synthetic surface.

United (5) and Cleopatra's Strike (3) are the lukewarm choices at 3-1 and 7-2 respectively, while Grecian Fire (6) is pegged at 4-1 and Oscar Dominguez (2) is in the mix at 5-1, too.

Verdict: Yay. I'm going to fool around with Ya Gotta Wanna (1), who has posted all three of his wins on this course along with a rallying third in last year's edition of this event. We'll try to get him on the board with any of the logical contenders if he's double-digit odds.

Rodeo Drive (race 9, 4:41 PT): Beau Recall (2) is the 9-5 chalk after getting up in the Yellow Ribbon Handicap (G2T) and upping her record to 4-2-0 from six starts with Brad Cox. She has not, however, been able to finish in the money in three prior attempts at 10 furlongs that include a fourth in the 2018 Rodeo Drive.

Elysea's World (3) and Paved (6) exit the John C. Mabee (G2T) at Del Mar and may be worth a look. The former figures close off a win on this course and trip in the Santa Ana (G3T) earlier this season and picks up Flavien Prat, while the latter was a close second in last year's renewal of this race and could be peaking third time back from a layoff.

Verdict: Yay. 

Awesome Again (race 10, 5:13 PT): McKinzie (4) is 4-5 in his tune-up for the BC Classic (G1) on the heels of a dominating performance in the Whitney. 

The most formidable of his five rivals is Higher Power (1), who comes off a romping score in a soft renewal of the TVG Pacific Classic (G1) and might well bounce off that performance, which was the best of his life by a wide margin. Third choice Seeking the Soul (3) reportedly came out of his seventh in the Pacific Classic with a case of the "thumps" and has posted six of his seven wins on the Kentucky circuit.

Verdict: Nay. This has all the earmarks of a $3.60 exacta.

CHURCHILL DOWNS

Ack Ack (race 7, 9:05 ET): The linemaker installed Thirstforlife (4) and Timeline as 3-1 co-favorites, with Air Strike (2) close behind at 7-2 in a very competitive one-turn mile.

Thirstforlife has been away since stumbling and losing the rider in an ungraded stakes in mid-July, while Timeline hasn't been out since finishing next-to-last in the 2018 Cigar Mile Presented by NYRA Bets (G1).

Air Strike looks logical enough dropping from fourth-place finishes in the Forego (G1) and Bing Crosby (G1), but I wonder whether he may actually go off favored picking up Florent Geroux.

C Z Rocket (3) may fly under the radar. He was done in by a prolonged battle for the lead when fourth at 6-5 in the 2018 Ack Ack, but he'll be more like 6-1 this time around and may be ready to roll after a useful six-furlong tightener first out in seven months.

Verdict: Yay.

Lukas Classic (race 9, 10:11 ET): Quip (4) is the 5-2 choice. He has been good to us on a couple previous occasions and would be tough to beat off a gutsy runner-up effort in the Stephen Foster (G2) on this track. That was in mid-June, though, and his only appearance since then was a misfire in the Pacific Classic to wind up almost 30 lengths in arrears.

The most attractive alternatives, hard-knockers all, drew somewhat unfavorably on the outside: Pioneer Spirit (7), Kulkulkan (8), Silver Dust (9) and Mocito Rojo (10).

The one sleeper I could find is Big Dollar Bill (3), who closed out 2018 with a series of solid efforts that would play quite well here. He's only been out once this year, when a wide and troubled sixth with a seven-pound apprentice at Ellis Park seven weeks ago, but he's 15-1 with good back form and gets a switch to the very capable Chris Landeros.

Verdict: Yay. Depending, that is, on how the first 22 hours of the day have transpired.