Experimental Free Handicap Still Helpful in Judging Triple Crown Hopefuls

Dual classic winer I'll Have Another (left), 2013 Preakness victor Oxbow (center) and 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags serve as examples of the Experimental Free Handicap providing a useful tool in identifying potential standout three-year-olds. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
The coupled entry between 2-year-old racing and the Kentucky Derby has grown shaky over the course of the last decade or so.
Trainers are no longer quick to bring their prized 2-year-olds to the races in the early part of the summer. The Hopeful Stakes, for example, a Saratoga springboard for champions like Secretariat and Affirmed, has not been captured by the winner of a Triple Crown race since Afleet Alex in 2004.
Less racing seems to be better in some minds as far as getting to Louisville on the first Saturday in May is concerned.
Even the Road to the Kentucky Derby point series, which determines the 20 starters in the run for the roses, places far more emphasis in the final round of preps than even the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
And yet, there’s a drought even longer than the one attached to the Triple Crown which warns that 2-year-old racing should not be ignored.
Since Apollo in 1882, every Kentucky Derby winner has raced at two, and it’s that 133-year-old piece of history that makes 2-year-old form an important barometer in judging worthy Triple Crown contenders and a tool like the Experimental Free Handicap as valuable now as it was decades ago. 
First created by the famed racing secretary Walter Vosburgh in 1933, the Experimental is in one sense no different than a race such as the Whitney Handicap. Horses are assigned weights based on their body of work, with the better horses receiving more weight and lesser runners getting a lighter impost - only the Experimental takes into account every 2-year-old race in that calendar year and assigns weights to about 100 or so runners among both male and females. 
The 2014 Experimental is scheduled to be released Thursday, and the highweights atop the male and female divisions will join a select group of horses that includes some of the sport’s greatest champions. Each of the last four Triple Crown winners (Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Secretariat and Citation) was a highweight on the Experimental.
While the last year’s Experimental failed to include California Chrome or Tonalist, who combined to win all three legs of the Triple Crown, on the distaff side a number of the top rated fillies grew into stars at three.
Untapable, who won the Breeders’ Cup Distaff and the Kentucky Oaks and was a unanimous choice as champion 3-year-old filly, was assigned 117 pounds in the 2013 Experimental, six pounds less than the highweighted filly, Ria Antonia.
Beyond that, of the 11 fillies who were assigned higher weights than Untapable, four became Grade 1 winners in 2014 and three others finished second or third in a Grade 1 stakes.
On the male side, injuries had a dramatic impact on last year’s Experimental. New Year’s Day, the 126-pound highweight, suffered a career-ending injury following his impressive win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Havana, next at 125 pounds, raced only twice at three.
In their absence from the scene, Shared Belief, who was assigned 125 pounds along with Havana, turned into one of the year’s biggest stars and was the front-runner for Horse of the Year honors until he finished a troubled fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
SHARED BELIEF WINNING THE PACIFIC CLASSIC

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Additionally, one of the best values of the Experimental comes on the first Saturday in May when a solid foundation at two often pays off with a longshot winner of the Kentucky Derby.
In 2011, I’ll Have Another received 111 pounds in the Experimental and then won the 2012 Kentucky Derby at 15.30-to-1 odds, followed by a victory in the Preakness.
Two years earlier, Super Saver was assigned 122 pounds, four less than the co-highweighted Lookin At Lucky and Vale of York, and captured the 2010 Kentucky Derby, paying $18.
The Experimental yielded a substantially better reward in 2005 when Giacomo, who was pegged at 122 pounds, finally remembered how good he was at two and prevailed in the Derby, paying $102.60 to win.
More recently, with 100 pounds the cutoff in each year’s Experimental, Oxbow checked in at 102 pounds and won the 2013 Preakness at 15.40-to-1 odds while Union Rags, the 126-pound co-highweight in 2011, took the 2012 Belmont Stakes to complete a Triple Crown sweep for Experimental horses. Lookin At Lucky, the 2009 co-highweight, captured the 2010 Preakness.
UNION RAGS (inside) WINNING THE 2012 BELMONT STAKES

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
The last highweight to win the Kentucky Derby was Street Sense, who won the 2007 run for the roses.
Giving the fillies their due, the last distaff runner to capture a Triple Crown race, Rachel Alexandra (2009 Preakness) was assigned 116 pounds on the 2008 Experimental.
This year, Gulfstream Park general manager P.J. Campo, Keeneland Racing Secretary Ben Huffman, New York Racing Association Senior Vice President of Racing Operations Martin Panza, and Del Mar Executive Vice President of Racing and Industry Relations Tom Robbins worked together on the Experimental. Their work should answer some intriguing questions.
How do they rate Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red, American Pharoah, who beat Texas Red but missed the Breeders’ Cup due to injury, and a late bloomer like Dortmund, who did not win his first stakes until Dec. 20? How much weight will they assign the 2-year-old filly champion Take Charge Brandi? How will it compare to the weight assignments for the males? Who will be the next I’ll Have Another, Super Saver or Giacomo?
Tune in Thursday for the answers.
Trends and statistics gathered from the Experimental Free Handicap over past 10 years

High weights and horses giving five pounds or less to the high weights for the male division account for 48 horses.
Thirteen of those 48 horses rated within five pounds of the high weight won a Grade 1 race as a three-year-old.
Six of those Grade 1 winners combined to win seven Triple Crown races: Union Rags, 2012 Belmont Stakes; Lookin At Lucky, 2010 Preakness; Super Saver, 2010 Kentucky Derby; Street Sense, 2007 Kentucky Derby; Afleet Alex, 2005 Preakness and Belmont Stakes; and Giacomo, 2005 Kentucky Derby.
There were 26 horses from the group of 48 rated within five pounds of the high weight that went on to win graded stakes as a three-year-old.
Thirty-one of the 48 won or placed in a graded stakes race at three.
The highest weight assignment during the 10 years was the 128 assigned to champion Uncle Mo on the 2010 Experimental Free Handicap. Only To Honor and Serve (123 pounds) was within five pounds on Uncle Mo in 2010.
Sixteen of the 25 individual classic winners were not weighted on the Experimental Free Handicap.
Three classic winners — one winner from each Triple Crown race — were assigned high weight or co-high weight on the Experimental Free Handicap: Street Sense (127 pounds on 2006 EFH) won the 2007 Kentucky Derby, Lookin At Lucky (126-pound co-high weight on 2009 EFH) won the 2010 Preakness and Union Rags (126-pound co-high weight on 2011 EFH) won the 2012 Belmont Stakes.
Two fillies have won Triple Crown races in the course of the past 10 years: Rags to Riches, the 2007 Belmont Stakes winner, was not rated among females in 2006 and Rachel Alexandra, the 2009 Preakness winner, was rated at 116 pounds in 2008.
New Year’s Day, the high-weighted two-year-old of 2013, did not race at three. He was the first high-weighted horse since champion Vindication in 2002 that did not race at three.