Big Saturday, With an Eye Toward Breeders' Cup

With the Breeders' Cup just four weeks away, there are six Challenge races this Saturday—four at Keeneland and one each at Belmont Park and Santa Anita Park, which also offer multi-stakes programs.

Let's take a look at the win-and-you're-in races.

Champagne (Bel, race 10, 5:22 ET): Green Light Go (3) was scratched from the Hopeful (G1) when the Saratoga Race Course surface became a sea of slop closing day, meaning the 8-5 favorite on the morning line will be running for the first time since taking the Saratoga Special Stakes (G2) eight weeks ago. The additional time off could wind up a blessing in disguise, and the stretch to one mile should be right in his wheelhouse based on the versatility on display in his first two victories. He will have to run down Gozilla (5), who set the pace in the Hopeful, and hold off late challenges from Alpha Sixty Six (1), Three Technique (4) and Tiz the Law (7).

Alpha Sixty Six was a game debut winner for Todd Pletcher opening weekend, and his two most recent workouts match up with stablemate Gouverneur Morris, who is the ML favorite in the Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland approximately 17 minutes later.

Three Technique has been favored in all three of his starts, finishing second twice, including a traffic-troubled trip behind subsequent Hopeful winner Basin, and rallying from next-to-last to graduate by five widening lengths last out.

Tiz the Law, a New York-bred by second-leading freshman sire Constitution , won powerfully from just off the pace first out for the connections of Funny Cide—Sackatoga Stable and Barclay Tagg.

A - 3, 7

B - 1, 4

Thoroughbred Club Of America (Kee, race 7, 4:29 ET): There are competitive filly-and-mare sprinters top to bottom in this grade 2 dash, with Chalon (8) rated a tepid choice over 12-time winner Ours to Run (1) and Spiced Perfection (3).

Chalon was second best in the 2017 TCA, which started a streak of seven consecutive runner-up finishes in graded stakes including last year's edition of the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (G1) by just a head. She's going to break through sooner or later, and should trip out nicely tracking a hotly contested pace.

The speed of the speed looks to be Danuska's My Girl (4), who has shown consistent 21-and-change octane winning three graded stakes in her past four outings. See if the track's playing to her strength.

Spiced Perfection is a dual grade 1 winner coming in fresh first out since a flat fourth in the Humana Distaff (G1) on the first Saturday in May—a race won by Mia Mischief (6). The latter is capable of beating anyone on her best efforts, but her two biggest wins have come at Churchill Downs.

A - 3, 8

B - 1, 4

C - 6

First Lady (Kee, race 8, 5:04 ET): A full gate of 14 with a short run to the first turn makes a good start key for 9-5 chalk Rushing Fall (11), a daughter of More Than Ready  who is 4 for 4 over the course and 4 for 4 at the mile distance for Chad Brown.

Brown's other contender—by the same sire—is Uni (4), who won her first five starts at a mile before rallying for third in the Fourstardave Handicap, which went in a course record 1:32 flat.

Our only backup is the European mare Indian Blessing (7), who was a gaining third in this race a year ago after getting mugged at the start. She had the lead near the wire in a salty renewal of the Ballston Spa (G2T) in her return to the States, only to get nipped by the Brown-trained Significant Form, who was one of four to come out of that race to win again.

A - 4, 11

B - 7

Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (Kee, race 9, 5:39 ET): The aformenoned Gouverneur Morris (10) is stuck on the far outside as the 5-2 choice, but the $600,000 Constitution colt ran to his backing with a handy nine-length romp on closing day at the Spa and looks like the goods.

The second choice, Tap It to Win (1) drew more favorably. The son of Tapit  comes off a rail-skimming maiden win on the Travers Day undercard when switched from turf to dirt by Mark Casse. Of particular significance is the fact that the inside was by far the worst part of the track that afternoon.

Co-second choice Ajaaweed (8) and 20-1 outsider January Won (9) share a good development pattern after recording improved figures on the stretch-out second time out.

A - 1, 10

B - 8

C - 9

Shadwell Turf Mile (Kee, race 10, 6:15 ET): The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Call me crazy, especially after Structor nipped our 10-1 shot Andesite in last week's Pilgrim (G3T), but Chad Brown can't win every turf stake, can he?

Brown has Valid Point (4) as the 5-1 favorite in this 14-horse stampede, as the lightly raced 3-year-old takes on seasoned older rivals after winning a relatively light edition of the Secretariat (G1T) over 28-1 shot Van Beethoven (2), who had been out of the money in eight straight starts overseas prior to that.

We'll use Valid Point somewhat defensively, but there are a handful of hard-knocking horses that may fall through the cracks here, among them Mark Casse's pair of First Premio (9) and March to the Arch(11), who are both 12-1. Toss the yielding race two back from First Premio and he has been pretty consistent this year, including a win over 11 opponents on the Keeneland layout. Similarly, March to the Arch ran over a bog in the Bernard Baruch (G2T) last out, but figures right there off his form on firm footing.

I'm also imcluding Next Shares (1), who won this race at 23-1 last year and lacked room in the Tourist Mile first time back from a layoff; Bowies Hero (5), a multiple graded stakes winner at the distance; and Vintager (8), a first-time Lasix import from Godolphin who has recaptured his form since cut back from longer races.

A - 3, 5, 9

B - 4, 8, 11

C - 1, 12

Santa Anita Sprint Championship (SA, race 9, 4:55 PT): With the likes of Roy H and Cistron sitting this race out, things aren't as salty as they could be for Omaha Beach (2) and Shancelot (3) as they face their elders for the first time.

The well-documented trials and tribulations of Omaha Beach and the supersonic speed of Shancelot make this must-see TV. The former makes his first start since being scratched from the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1) due to an entrapped epiglottis, and the latter makes his first start since being done in by the deadest of dead rails in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Presented By Runhappy (G1).

Shancelot's sheer speed gives him an edge, but Omaha Beach had the lead after a half-mile in 43.71 seconds in his maiden win, so it's not like he's some kind of plodder, plus this is a home game for him.

I don't know if Flagstaff (4) can beat them both, but the lightly raced 5-year-old by Speightstown  has never run a bad sprint and has trained up a storm since taking an allowance-optional claimer with second-level conditions at Del Mar. John Sadler has been well worth following with overlaid contenders in graded stakes over the years, and it might pay to key him in exactas with the two heavy-heads.