Handicapping Turf Races at Keeneland, Woodbine, Belmont

All of the significant stakes action in North America is on turf Oct. 11.

Chad Brown sends out three of the nine sophomore fillies in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Presented By Lane's End (G1T), but the sleeper could be Magnetic Charm, who is campaigned by none other than Queen Elizabeth II.

At Woodbine Racetrack, scattered showers and cool temperatures should make the European invaders feel right at home in the Pattison Canadian International (G1T), E.P. Taylor (G1T) and Nearctic (G2T).

Down on Long Island, Belmont Park carded two grass stakes for distaffers, the Sands Point (G2T) for 3-year-old fillies and the $100,000 Floral Park, which features the 5-year-old mare Goldwood shooting for her sixth straight sprint victory.

There's a pick three on the Nearctic, E.P. Taylor and Canadian International. The QE II and Sands Point are in the middle of a cross-country pick five linking races from Keeneland and Belmont.

Here are some thoughts and opinions on the five graded events.

QE II (Kee, race 9, 5:30 ET): Chad's triumvirate looks formidable, which is par for the course. Cambier Parc (3) and Cafe Americano (6) are each 2 for 2 at nine furlongs and put in solid closing kicks to respectively win the Del Mar Oaks (G1T) and Pucker Up (G3T) going away last out, while Regal Glory (9) is no slouch with a 5-2-0 slate from seven career starts capped by a dead-heat win in the Lake Placid (G2T) with Varenka (8). They both overcame a dawdling pace that day, and could face the same scenario in this field lacking a clear-cut early leader.

Magnetic Charm (7) has yet to win a stakes but she finished second of 27 in the Sandringham Stakes at Royal Ascot while giving the winner 21 pounds, and her initial try on this side of the pond was a rallying second in the Canadian (G2T) behind the older repeat winner Starship Jubilee, a six-time stakes winner who slowed the pace to a crawl and sprinted home the last three furlongs in just over 34 seconds. Given the connections, I've got to believe this has been the main objective all along, and anything near the 12-1 morning line would be irresistible. 

I could see Castle Lady (5) trying to steal this on the front-end. The Godolphin homered has never been beyond a mile but her dam is a half sister to Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Raven's Pass.

A - 6, 7

B - 3, 5

C - 8, 9

Sands Point (Bel, race 9, 5:13 ET): Brown has two solid threats in Oldendon(FR) (2) and New and Improved (5), but it's not like they have a huge edge over Dyna Passer (1) or Romantic Pursuit (6).

New and Improved began her career with a couple of mile races over the inner turf at Saratoga Race Course, each time breaking tardily and running through progressively faster quarter-mile segments. Obviously, she has tons of upside.

The French-bred Olendon failed to fire making her stateside debut in the Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1T) for Pascal Bary on sun-baked turf, and was then rank early with blinkers on in the Saratoga Oaks chasing 1-5 Concrete Rose and pushed in and bumped through midstretch. She has been back to the drawing board in the 10 weeks that have ensued and removes the hood going second-time Lasix.

Dyna Passer and Romantic Pursuit have been closely matched in two recent meetings, finishing heads or necks apart. The latter should be part of the early pace along with Souper Escape (7), a versatile sort who has won on turf, dirt and synthetic this year.

A - 2, 5

B - 1, 6

C - 7

Nearctic (WO, race 7, 4:30 ET): The play here is for a pace meltdown, as Boreal Spirit (3), Reconfigure (4), Richiesinthehouse (8) and Yorkton (9) have all shown early speed lately. Reconfigure is tractable enough to take back, though, and could fall through the cracks at 12-1 on the line.

The pace setup may bode well for Admiralty Pier (1), Lookin to Strike (2) and/or Blind Ambition (6). Admiralty Pier lands in an easier spot after dueling through fast fractions in the Ricoh Woodbine Mile (G1T, and prior to that ran a respectable fifth in the seven-furlong Play The King (G2T), which went in course-record time of 1:19.22 seconds. Blind Ambition appeared to have something left after running down Reconfigure first time out since last November.

We're also throwing in the 3-year-old filly Woody Creek (7), a first-Lasix import who was sharp against older males when second by a neck in the Phoenix Sprint Stakes (G3T) at The Curragh two back.

A - 1, 6

B - 2, 4

C - 7

E.P. Taylor (WO, race 8, 5:05 ET): Red Tea (2) arrives in the best form of her life at age 6, and looks clearly superior to the three other Euros, Durance (6), Imperial Charm (7) and Platane (9) based on their Timeform ratings.

Si Que Es Buena (4) came up from South America and adapted nicely to U.S. racing, taking two stakes at Gulfstream Park at the turn of the year while beating the accomplished Holy Helena (5) twice. Si Que Es Buena returns for Graham Motion off a serious-looking work tab totaling 37 furlongs over the last six weeks. Holy Helena stretches back out to her preferred 10 furlongs after getting stuck behind Starship Jubilee in that slow-paced Canadian.

A - 2, 4

B - 5, 6

C - 7, 9

Canadian International (WO, race 9, 5:42 ET): Europeans have won nine of the past 10 runnings and are a formidable presence again, with Ziyad (1) pegged at even money and Desert Encounter (4) the 2-1 second choice as he seeks to become the first repeat winner since Joshua Tree in 2012-13.

Ziyad comes off the three best races of his career, and while he has never before raced outside France, any give in the ground will be to his benefit.

Desert Encounter handled "good" going coming from next-to-last to win last year's renewal and has also been sharp recently through three consecutive group 3 triumphs in Great Britain.

Pivoine (2) and Alounak (5) look a cut below based on their form overseas, but note the latter won twice earlier in his career on yielding turf and he has been running on "good" turf through seven starts this year.

A - 1, 4

B - 2, 5