European Yearling Markets: Plus or Minus 2018

There were some impressive increases in various sectors of the 2018 yearling sales: Last year's Keeneland September Yearling Sale posted a $70 million (23%) increase in gross over the 2017 edition, and was up $105 million (38%) over the 2016 Keeneland September gross of $272 million.

In 2018, The Saratoga Sale, Fasig-Tipton's New York selected yearling auction, had produced a nearly $10 million increase (18%) over their 2017 gross; and the Goffs Orby Sale in Ireland had increased by 21% in average last year from €109,122 (US$129,021) in 2017 to €132,613 ($153,368)—although, in retrospect, that may have had to do more with a drop in numbers of those cataloged and sold than had been the case in America.

Sure enough, there has been what is essentially a single-digit retreat from 2018 peaks in all three cases.

The Saratoga Sale cataloged 13% fewer yearlings this year; their gross dropped by $7 million, though their average actually went up due to 21% fewer yearlings selling (and a 6% drop in the clearance rate from the catalog). In what was still described as a really strong sale (at least, as everyone agrees, in the top rungs of the market), Keeneland September's gross still declined by 5%, from $377 million to $360 million.

Goffs flagship two-day Orby sale, held at their Kildare Paddocks Oct 1-2, also declined some in what was still a strong market: the gross was down just 2%, from just under €43.5 million ($50.3 million) to just under €42.8 million ($46.7 million), but as the number cataloged and sold was up 12% and 10% respectively from 2018, the average dipped by 11%, from €132,613 ($153,368) to €117,899 ($128,686).

It is possible, however, the Goffs Orby 21% average increase in 2018 may have been as much about a reduction in numbers for that year's sale as it could be to ascribe it to a jump in market prices. Consider: the numbers cataloged in 2016, 2017, and 2019 were 474, 468, and 472; in 2018 there were 419 cataloged, 11% fewer than the average for the other three years. The numbers sold in those three years were 363, 373, and 363; in 2018 there were 328 sold, 10% fewer than the three-year average. So it looks like half of the 2018 increase might have simply been due to a reduction in numbers.

Figures compiled by Brianne Stanley of The Bill Oppenheim Group tell us the European yearling sales thus far in 2019 have grossed €137 million, up €7 million or 5% from 2018, and compared to €133 million at the corresponding point in 2017.

North American yearling sales, through Keeneland September, had grossed $450 million, a 6% decline from 2018 but still 30% higher than the corresponding figure of $347 million in 2016. The big test comes Oct. 8-10 with Europe's top yearling sale, Tattersalls' October Book 1, which grossed 88 million guineas in 2016; 102 million guineas in 2017; and 106 million guineas last year. In 2018 there were 392 yearlings sold, from 519 cataloged (75.5%), for an average of 271,691 guineas—roughly $360,000 by current exchange rates. By comparison, in 2019 the Keeneland September Book 1 saw 340 yearlings sold, from 569 cataloged (a much lower 59.8%), for an average of $471,950.

With fillies selling for €3 million and €2.2 million at Goffs, Galileo now leads all North American and European sires going into Tattersalls Book 1, with 16 yearlings averaging US$882,498. Dubawi, with just six sold so far, is second with an average of $698,530.

Through the Keeneland September sale, four North American sires had averaged more than $500,000: Curlin  (51/$607,000); Medaglia d'Oro  (31/$596,225); War Front  (15/$574,333); and Tapit  (29, $545,689). Frankel, currently third by average in Europe, has had 12 yearlings so far average $489,123; and American Pharoah  has also averaged more than $400,000, with 63 yearlings averaging $436,434.

Among European first-crop yearling sires, France's Haras de Bouquetot's Shalaa, a son of Invincible Spirit (sire of I Am Invincible, Kingman, and Cable Bay) who won two group 2 races and the Darley Prix Morny (G1) and Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (G1) as a 2-year-old is the leader in the clubhouse with 38 yearlings so far averaging the equivalent of US$128,740. Coolmore's The Gurkha (by Galileo) is second with 27 yearlings so far averaging US$82,165.

These are well below the averages for the top North American first-crop yearling sires: Nyquist , Frosted , and Runhappy .