Sizing Up Graded Stakes, State-Breds, Steeplechasers
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Dave Litfin - Litfin At Large
This Saturday is the calm before the Breeders' Cup storm, and the only flat race in the United States carrying graded status is the Lexus Raven Run (G2) at Keeneland Race Course, taken last year by Shamrock Rose, who then lit up the toteboard winning the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1).
The only other graded stakes, as graded by the National Steeplechase Association, in the nation Oct. 19 is also the longest and richest, the $450,000 Grand National Hurdle (NSA-1) that covers 21 furlongs at the Far Hills Race Meeting in New Jersey and climaxes the biggest day of racing on the National Steeplechase Association circuit.
It's also Maryland Million Day at Laurel Park, featuring a dozen races collectively worth just north of $1 million, as well as Empire Showcase Day at Belmont Park, where New York-breds run for $1.94 million through 11 events.
Three jump races from Far Hills, including the Grand National, comprise the first three legs of a cross-country pick five that concludes with the $200,000 Ticonderoga and the $250,000 Empire Distaff Handicap from Belmont.
Lexus Raven Run (Kee, race 9, 5:30 ET): Wouldn't you know it, Chad Brown takes double-barreled aim at this salty seven-furlong sprint for 3-year-old fillies with morning-line favorite Royal Charlotte (1) and second choice Indian Pride (3). Royal Charlotte moved through progressively tougher company winning her first four starts, and after finishing off the board in the Longines Test (G1), rebounded smartly to win the Prioress (G2) Aug. 31.
Three days earlier, Indian Pride, bred and owned by former Kentucky governor Brereton C. Jones, was unveiled at 3-5 and simply toyed with maidens in a front-running romp at six furlongs. She concedes experience to 10 foes but appears to be the controlling speed once again, and recall Brown wheeled back Guarana off a flashy debut win to take the Acorn (G1) by six lengths earlier this year.
We're going to use Brown's duo, but we will shoot for a little value with up-and-coming First Star (8) and stakes-seasoned Horologist (9).
First Star rallied determinedly on the rail to win her sprint bow at Del Mar, and came back later at the meet to win a two-turn allowance mile despite breaking from the far outside and being hung out four wide the entire way, which makes for a very strong sheet-style figure.
Horologist also turns back in distance after running a solid third in Cotillion (G1), which snapped a four-race winning streak. She has since been transferred to Richard Baltas and gets a switch back to Joe Bravo, who is 3 for 3 with the daughter of Gemologist .
Restless Rider (6) has excelled over this track in top-level company, taking the Darley Alcibiades (G1) last fall and finishing a close second in the Central Bank Ashland (G1). She hasn't sprinted since a runner-up finish in the Spinaway at 2, though, and has been sidelined since a mystifyingly subpar performance in the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1).
A - 8, 9 Grand National (FH, race 6, 4:20 ET):
B - 1, 3, 6
Jury Duty follows the same schedule after a 13-length defeat in the P W C Champion, and will be back on Lasix to defend his title.
Indeed, things worked out so well last year that Elliott also brought over The Storyteller (3), who beat Jury Duty by six lengths over soft ground in 2018. The Storyteller is one of four European invaders getting first-Lasix along with The Holy One (1), Rashaan (7) and Brain Power (11). We'll cover them all, because you just never know when one of them will jump up big-time (see what I did there?).
Wicklow Brave (6) is the lone Euro not getting Lasix, but the 10-year-old gelding doesn't seem to need it judging from three straight wins in Ireland.
A - 4
B - 6
C - 1, 3, 7, 11
Ticonderoga (Bel, race 9, 4:48 ET): Fifty Five (4) has won her last five non-graded stakes starts including the 2018 renewal of this race at 4-5. The reliable Chad Brown-trained mare has finished in the money in all but two of 21 career starts, and one of those was a close fourth in a very strong edition of the Ballston Spa (G2T) when nosed for third by Starship Jubilee, who has since won the Canadian (G2T) and E.P. Taylor (G1T).
Fifty Five has beaten a handful of her opponents repeatedly, but one she hasn't yet faced is Dream Passage (5), who makes her stakes debut in the best form of her life for Brad Cox. She battled up front through a sharp early pace before drawing off from stablemate and next-out winner Out of Trouble last out, but she is also tractable enough to sit off the speed if need be.
A - 4
B - 5
Empire Distaff (Bel, race 10, 5:20 ET): This time it's Linda Rice who sends out two of the logical choices, Newly Minted (1) and Midnight Disguise (9).
On the one hand, Newly Minted could be vulnerable from the rail in this one-turn mile, as she faces older for the first time since a debut maiden win in April. On the other hand, she is 4 for 4 on dirt—whether it be fast, harrowed mud or sealed slop—and followed a nine-length win in the Fleet Indian with two sharp five-furlong workouts.
Midnight Disguise won stakes at 2 and 3 but is winless from five starts against older opponents through her 4-year-old season. That said, she figures close off a good-figure second in the Critical Eye over the track and trip in May, and she has run well fresh.
The late-starting Ratajkowski (10) didn't get to the races until this, her 5-year-old season, but the Drosselmeyer mare has gone through her conditions winning three of her past four starts. What's more, she has yet to take a backward step by the numbers and drew favorably toward the outside.
Held Accountable (8) looms a potential sleeper at 12-1 on the line as she returns to dirt following a disastrous start in the grassy Yaddo. Prior to that, she was second to Out of Orbit (6) in the Saratoga Dew second time back from a December-to-July layoff, and the race came just 13 days after a useful third against open company in her return. The spacing to this is better, and she has picked up the pace noticeably in her last two works for Phil Serpe, who boasts very good turf-to-dirt stats.
A - 1, 10
B - 8, 9
C - 6