Los Ponies DerbyJackpot Plays for Oct. 12-13

America’s Best Racing brand ambassador Jose Contreras – who puts his picks out for the public regularly on his own blog www.losponies.com - will help DerbyJackpot players with his insight in a regular blog feature for ABR.
Each week, Jose will give out his “Best Bet” of the weekend, ideal for a “Monkey Bet” (a win bet) on DerbyJackpot, as well as his Lonshot Play of the weekend, a nice opportunity to swing for the fences on a Monkey Bet or to take a shot with “The Granny” (a show bet, or top-three finish).
Jose also will lay out either a quick-hitting Granny Parlay or a Gonzo Bet. The Granny Parlay essentialy is a bet in which players will have an opportunity to place one Granny bet after another on a sequence of four or five races within an hour or so of each other, essentially letting it ride as they go "all in" search of a nice return on investment. The idea of the parlay is to steadily grow your bankroll until you have a sizeable stash of cash to let it ride on the final leg for a nice payout. The Gonzo Bet requires players to select the first two finishers in a given race in order, the same as a traditional exacta bet.
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Recap of Last Week
Saturday: A total of seven win bets, only one winner. The rain at Keeneland changed the strategy of many of the races over the weekend.
Sunday: A total of three win bets, none scored. Tough trips for many of our picks led to an overall tough weekend.
Saturday
Best Best (Monkey Bet/Win Bet)
Santa Anita, Race 6, 6:40 p.m. ET
#10 Change of Plan: In his most recent effort, he finished second at this same claiming level at Barretts at Fairplex and it was at the same seven-furlong distance as today’s race. He pressed a fast pace that day and finished a clear second. That was his best race yet and he showed that he liked the dirt. He returns in a good spot, and I have a good feeling he will love the dirt at Santa Anita. His outside post should allow him to get a good trip. His odds are 9-to-2 on the morning line.
Longshot Bet (Granny Bet/Show Bet)
Keeneland, Race 6, 3:45 p.m. ET
#5 Soul Winner’s Fire: If you ignore his two starts on the dirt, his turf record shows a third-place finish and a big win by more than four lengths under this jockey. With the way he was moving late in both of those turf starts, he should be able to give a good effort today. This is a much tougher group but his odds of 15-to-1 seem like a great price to play.
Exacta Box (Gonzo Bet)
Keeneland, Race 10, 5:53 p.m. ET
#1 Pentathlon: She showed some early speed in her debut and should improve in her second start. She drops in class and has worked well on this track in the mornings. Her trainer is winning at a 20% clip with horses that make their second starts.
#10 Medium of Exchange: She was claimed by a trainer that does well first off the claim and she has two nice-looking workouts on the Keeneland surface. She will be tough to beat.
#12 Vice Dancer: She has not been seen since July when running a one-mile race and finishing last. Her record before that race was a decent one, she had two thirds and two fourths from four starts. Looks to me like they gave her a break and now she returns back in a sprint race. She has a good local workout and drops in class.

Sunday 
Best Bet (Monkey Bet/Win Bet)
Santa Anita, Race 6, 6:30 p.m. ET
#1 Divine Tale: She was fourth in her debut back in February at this same distance on this same track under this same rider. She looks to have gotten plenty of time to mature and looks to be coming into this race with a steady set of workouts. I like her upside and I like her morning line odds of 8-to-1.
Longshot Bet (Granny Bet/Show Bet)
Santa Anita, Race 8, 7:30 p.m. ET
#9 Chimi Dee: What I like about this filly is that she always seems to try hard. She was given a break since her last start in May and arrives here with a couple of good-looking workouts. The last time she was given a break, she came back with a win at this same distance and surface at this track. She’s 10-to-1 on the morning line.
Exacta Box (Gonzo Bet)
Keeneland, Race 4, 2:41 p.m. ET
#1 Silver Frame: She was third as the favorite in her most recent start at Delaware Park when closing ground late. That looks to be her best effort yet and she has a good workout on this surface. She has shown speed before, so I expect her to be much closer with a good start.
#8 Crab Key: She is only making her second career start today after finishing fourth in her debut back in June at Arlington Park. She should have no problem with today’s surface given that Arlington is also a synthetic Polytrack surface and she has also been working on this Keeneland track since August.
#9 Coefficient: She ran once in 2012 and has not been seen since then. Today, she makes her second start and goes for a new trainer, Wayne Catalano. In that 2012 start, she went off at odds of 2-to-1 when running fourth at Delaware Park on the dirt. She did show early speed and based on the wagering, she should have some talent. This jockey-trainer combination tends to do well, and I expect this filly to run a good race.