Older Horses May Provide Value in Bold Ruler Handicap

The Breeders' Cup pre-entries are out and many horseplayers will be squirreled away with their advance past performances this weekend, but there is noteworthy stakes action on the final Saturday of October headed by the return of Maximum Security in the Bold Ruler Handicap (G3) at Belmont Park, which also cards a pair of $100,000 one-mile stakes for turf runners, the English Channel for 3-year-olds and the Awad for 2-year-olds.

The Bold Ruler (leg B) and Awad (leg D) are packaged with the Hagyard Fayette Stakes (G2, leg E) from Keeneland as part of the 36th and final Cross Country Pick Five of the season. The wager has a 50-cent minimum and 15% takeout, and payoffs in 2019 have ranged from $159 to $43,158, with returns of at least four figures reached 21 times. 

Out at Santa Anita Park, which hosts Breeders' Cup next Friday and Saturday, a competitive edition of the Autumn Miss Stakes (G3T) attracted an overflow field of 13 sophomore grass fillies headed by Hidden Message, a rallying second in the Del Mar Oaks Presented by the Jockey Club (G1T) in her first stateside start.

Last but by no means least up at Woodbine Racetrack, the $225,000 Princess Elizabeth for Canadian-bred juvenile fillies is the richest race of the weekend in North America. Josie Carroll sends out three of the seven entrants including even-money favorite Curlin's Voyage and second choice Avie's Samurai.

Bold Ruler (Bel, race 8, 4:40 ET): After being scratched from the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) because of a severe bout of colic, Maximum Security looks to get back on track in this seven-furlong event designed to move him forward to either the Clark Handicap (G1) at Churchill Downs Nov. 29 or the Cigar Mile Handicap (G1) at Aqueduct Racetrack Dec. 7. The dual grade 1 winner is tabbed at even money as he cuts back to a sprint for the first time since February and meets older horses for the first time. What's more, he must give weight to seven older opponents while making his first appearance since taking the TVG Haskell Invitational (G1) under hot conditions July 20. If that's not enough, he is under the gun from the inside post and likely to be hard pressed early by Wonderful Light and Knicks Go; that's assuming he breaks sharply, something he doesn't always do.

Circumstances seem to be conspiring against the favorite, so we'll use Maximum Security (1) defensively in backup mode along with Tale of Silence (2) and Killybegs Captain (6), who should be in line for a favorable pace setup at square prices, particularly the former, who has posted three bullet workouts since rallying mildly for fourth in the Kelso Handicap (G2) five weeks ago.

The keys are True Timber (4) and Prince Lucky (8), who come out of the Kelso Handicap (G2) as well. Prince Lucky is a three-time stakes winner this year and has all tactical options at his disposal breaking from outside. True Timber was three lengths behind Prince Lucky at the finish of the Kelso after dueling between horses early, but I expect last year's Bold Ruler runner-up will be ridden less aggressively in this situation.

A - 4, 8

B - 1, 2, 6

Awad (Bel, race 9, 5:13 ET): In a big upset, none of the 11 entered are trained by Chad Brown, although Jonathan Thomas and Bill Mott are each represented by two runners.

Tiesto (3) outran expectations winning his debut for Mott at 11-1 last month, and won decisively at that. Whenever a Mott-trained juvenile wins at first asking it's news, and his horses routinely improve with a race under their belt.

Irish Miss (2) could slip through the cracks here for Graham Motion, even though his maiden win came in the $200,000 Laurel Futurity over capable foes such as Doc Boy, who had won a $100,000 stake at Colonial Downs in his prior start, and Field Pass, who had run second in the With Anticipation (G3T). Considering it was his first time going long and first time on turf, Irish Miss appears to have found his calling.

The backups are Get Smokin (8), Buy Land and See (9) and Don Juan Kitten (10), who were all forwardly placed early in last-out maiden victories.

A - 2, 3

B - 8, 9, 10

Fayette (Kee, race 9, 5:30 ET): Even though they are winless from a dozen combined attempts in graded stakes, Tom's d'Etat (0 for 4) and Bal Harbour (0 for 8) look like the ones to beat.

Bal Harbour (8) was edged by a half-length in the Woodward Presented by NYRA Bets (G1) most recently, with Tom's d'Etat just over a length farther back in fourth after a wide trip from the far outside post.

They're not entirely trustworthy at this level, though, so we're also keying Mr Freeze (2), a two-time grade 3 winner who may be able to control the pace.

The B-team includes Mocito Rojo (5), who has won his last five starts at five tracks while upping his dirt record to 16 wins from 20 starts; and Big Dollar Bill (10), who is perfect from three starts over the local track and set for a peak effort third time back from a layoff. He flattened out to fifth behind Mocito Rojo in the recent Lukas Classic (G3), but his second and third quarter-mile segments were the fastest in the race and his last eighth of a mile was second-fastest, so the effort was better than it looks at first glance.

A - 2, 3, 8

B - 5, 10

Autumn Miss (SA, race 7, 3:45 PT): No fewer than nine of these fillies have produced top figures within a few points of each other. The classiest-looking among them are Hidden Message (3) and Mucho Unusual (9), who were respectively second and seventh in the Del Mar Oaks Aug. 17.

Hidden Message was making her first start in the United States and first beyond one mile that day, and fell into a good trip despite breaking from post 13 as she rallied for second behind Cambier Parc, who then won the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup presented by Lane's End (G1T).

Mucho Unusual had won her first three turf starts before coming up empty in the Oaks, perhaps feeling the effects of hard races back to back to win photo finishes in an optional claimer and the San Clemente (G2T). She has been freshened up and is 3 for 3 at a mile, with two of those races coming over the local course.

The regally bred Solent (6), a Juddmonte Farms homebred out of 10-time stakes winner Sightseek, steps up after winning maiden and allowance events in her first two starts for Brad Cox.

Great Sister Diane (7) has won two of three since haltered from her $35,000 maiden-claiming graduation, capped by a good-figure win over older mares in the $75,000 Monroe Stakes at Gulfstream Park, where she defeated 13 rivals including Lady Prancealot, a dual grade 3 winner who was a close third in the Del Mar Oaks.

Giza Goddess (10) is poorly posted for her 3-year-old bow, but showed high promise winning two of three turf starts late in her juvenile campaign including the Blue Northern on this layout.

A - 3, 9

B - 6, 7, 10