Making Money Betting Texas Red in the San Vicente Stakes
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Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red makes his seasonal debut on Sunday in the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
You can get the chili started and throw some beer on ice, but before you get totally lost in Super Bowl festivities, make sure you set aside time for Sunday's Grade 2, $200,000 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita Park. Perhaps the most anticipated of the early 3-year-old races of 2015, the San Vicente features the seasonal debut of Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red.
While the road to the Kentucky Derby doesn't necessarily start with Texas Red (post position No. 4), he'd certainly have to be near the top of everyone's list of contenders. If you're betting the race, expect his odds to be low - extremely low. Since betting him to win won't allow you to scrape together enough dough to pay for that second order of pizzas on Sunday night, let's see if we can find a different way to make some real money on the race.
So, we'll start by asking ourselves whether Texas Red is beatable in this spot, and the answer to that question is yes. That's not to say that I expect him to lose, because I don't, but consider a few key factors. First off, as impressive as his 6 1/2-length victory was in the Breeders' Cup, the race was run at a 1 1/16 miles. Texas Red has all the looks of a horse who wants to run all day - after all, he is a son of Preakness and Belmont winner Afleet Alex - and that should serve him well during the Triple Crown races. But Sunday's race is an abbreviated distance of seven furlongs, which can often pose a challenge to horses who take a while to crank up and close from way off the pace.
On the plus side for Texas Red, there appears to be a healthy amount of speed signed up for the race, which should ensure a fast enough pace for him to close into. Serbian Syclone (2) might be the fastest of the bunch and he comes in riding a two-race win streak. In both races, he pretty much led all the way around and won by 8 1/2 lengths combined. I don't think he's going to get any breathers up front though, and might very well face early pressure from Jazzy Josh (3) to his outside and mid-race pressure from a more seasoned sprint stakes winner in Lord Nelson (1). Unlike Texas Red, Lord Nelson looks well suited for this sprinting distance and if he can stay out of the early fray, he might be a big factor late.
LORD NELSON WINS THE SPEAKEASY STAKES
Photo by Benoit Photo
My only hesitation in going all in on Lord Nelson is that regular jockey Martin Garcia hops off of him in favor of trainer Bob Baffert's other horse in the race, Punctuate. On paper, Punctuate (5) is a bit of a mystery. He's only run once and he's won once but he hasn't been seen since last September. A lot can happen, in terms of progression or regression, between the fall of a horse's 2-year-old season and the early part of their sophomore campaign. I'll consider Garcia's presence aboard Punctuate a sign that he has progressed since we last saw him.
Ultimately, I still think Texas Red is the best horse. However, since he may potentially be vulnerable at the distance, and without knowing his rate of maturation since November, I'll use him in a cautious way on our tickets. He'll be on top of our trifecta play, along with Punctuate, while I spread underneath and hope to land a longer price in the second spot and an even bigger price in the third spot.
Here it goes:
$1 trifecta: 4, 5/ 1, 4, 5/1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8 ($20 total)
Enjoy the race and have a great Super Bowl Sunday.
$200,000 San Vicente StakesSanta Anita Park , Sunday, Race 6, 4:30 p.m. ET7 furlongs, dirt, 3-year-olds
PP
Horse
Jockey
Weight
Trainer
1
Lord Nelson
Rafael Bejarano
118
Bob Baffert
2
Serbian Syclone
Elvis Trujillo
118
Peter Miller
3
Jazzy Josh
Flavien Prat
118
George Papaprodromou
4
Texas Red
Kent Desormeaux
123
Keith Desormeaux
5
Punctuate
Martin Garcia
118
Bob Baffert
6
Magic Taste
Omar Herrera Santos
118
Marcelo Polanco
7
Bench Warrant
Tyler Baze
118
John Sadler
8
Sir Samson
Joe Talamo
118
Brian Koriner