Potential for Value in River City Handicap

The Nov. 16 stakes fare is about what you'd expect for a late fall Saturday. The graded stakes menu consists of only the River City Handicap (G3T) scheduled for 1 1/8 miles on turf at Churchill Downs and the Bob Hope (G3) for 2-year-olds at seven furlongs out at Del Mar.

There's a handful of hundred-granders too, including the James F. Lewis III and Warrior's Reward Smart Halo for juvenile sprinters at Laurel Park; Delta Mile for 3 and up at Delta Downs; and the Key Cents for 2-year-old New York-bred fillies at Aqueduct Racetrack.

River City Handicap (CD, race 10, 5:36 ET): After canceling because of frigid temperatures Wednesday, the outlook is for more seasonable Saturday with highs near 50—the grass course should be good to go. Mr. Misunderstood (4) has won four of five starts on the local layout including last year's River City 'Cap at odds-on. That is also the last time he visited the winner's circle, though, and while his close second to Space Mountain (6) a few weeks ago was an improvment, he has clearly lost a couple lengths from his 2018 form. It should be pointed out that Space Mountain is a multiple winner at Churchill as well, and figures to be the better price.

They both have to beat Admission Office (9), who took the summer off after a fast-closing third in the Wise Dan (G2T), and returned in the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1T) to be last of 14 for six furlongs and buried in traffic along the inside late.

Get Western (8) looms the one to catch. He has won at 6-1 or better three times (four overall) in his past 10 outings (twice on this course), but ventures past 1 1/16 miles for the first time.

Emmaus (2) enters in good form on the heels of a good-trip allowance win, and handles some give in the ground, but he too has never been nine furlongs.

Cullum Road (1) had some trouble behind Emmaus last out when coming off paired top figures, and could rebound at a price with a ground-saving trip.

A - 6, 9

B - 2, 4

C - 1, 8

Bob Hope (Dmr, race 8, 4:00 PT): With the news Bob Baffert will scratch morning-line favorite Thousand Words, the obvious two-speed number links his other entrant, High Velocity (5), with the Doug O'Neill-trained Strongconstitution (6).

High Velocity gets a sterner test here after stalking a 16-1 shot and wearing him down to win first out, and must stretch out from 5 1/2 furlongs.

Strongconstitution won his turf sprint debut going five-eighths, then gained useful seasoning in the Sunny Slope at 6 1/2 furlongs on the main track at Santa Anita Park when in tight along the rail and edged by his more experienced stablemate Fore Left, who won the Tremont early in the season. 

Feeling adventurous, I'm trying to beat them both (or at least one) with turf-to-dirt Rager (1). Watching his debut, you would've felt like ripping up your tickets when he lost position on the turn, but he settled suddenly in midstretch and unleashed a big kick to win under mild urging. He is bred both sides for the surface switch and at 6-1 or better he is a win wager and exacta key.

A - 1

B - 5, 6

Delta Mile (DeD, race 8, 8:11 CT): Here's a fun little race where I'm happy to work around morning-line choice Forevamo (10), who won a sloppy Jean Lafitte over the track as a 2-year-old in 2015, but whose career slate of 3-8-3 from 27 starts includes a 1-for-18 run since mid-2016.

I'm keying McFeely (4) and Late Nite Mischief (7), with Double Star (1) and Trevilion (6) in supporting roles and Forevamo used defensively along with pacesetter Stephen's Answer (2).

McFeely was beaten by some of these in May but added blinkers and turned the tables for back-to-back wins in early summer, and he has been freshened since failing to fire in early September.

The steady-going Late Nite Mischief has enough tactical speed to keep the pressure on Stephen's Answer. His most recent try at a mile on dirt was against Mocito Rojo, who was in the midst of a five-stakes win streak that culminated with the Lukas Classic (G3).

Trevilion is lightly raced and improving, but the 3-year-old takes the worst of the weights spotting older rivals five pounds.

Double Star returned from a two-month break and suffered through a ridiculously bad trip in the Gold Cup Stakes. Any racing luck from the rail post can land him on the board at boxcars.

A - 4, 7

B - 1, 6

C - 2, 10

J. F. Lewis (Lrl, race 6, 2:51 ET): Raging Whiskey (4) and Tuggle (5) go turf to dirt and figure to hook up early, so I'm wondering whether Newstone (1) and/or Bernie's On Fire (6) can take advantage of a hot pace.

Newstone has already had a taste of everything three starts in, beginning with a good-figure debut win on dirt, after which he was outdueled on grass by subsequent Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G2) winner Four Wheel Drive, and then rebounded to win a $100K stake on the synthetic surface at Presque Isle Downs. That last effort showed he can sit just off the pace, and he may wind up with a pocket-rocket sort of trip.

Bernie's On Fire remains unclassified after a big win over 11 off-the-turf maidens first out for Claudio Gonzalez, who is winning at a 30% clip at the current meet.

A - 1, 6

B - 4, 5

Smart Halo (Lrl, race 7, 3:20 ET): Letsstaypositive (1) and Cofactor (2) exit good performances at Keeneland. The former was haltered from a runner-up finish against $75,000 optional claimers, and will have to hustle from the rail to maintain position over Summer Fortune (6), who was clear throughout a debut win at Belmont Park last month.

Cofactor looks like a fighter in the wake of two photo-finish victories at this distance, and rated nicely before kicking in to run down a loose leader most recently.

Lucky Trinity (3), another debut winner stepping up for Claudio Gonzalez, seems destined for a beneficial pace setup.

A - 1, 2

B - 3, 6