Handicapping Saturday's Graded Stakes at Gulfstream

Restricted stakes are all over the map Saturday, Dec. 14. It's Louisiana Champions Day in New Orleans; Been Studying Her looks like a solid favorite against nine rival California-bred sprinters in the Soviet Problem Stakes at Los Alamitos Race Course; and the $500,000 Great White Way division of the New York Stallion Series at Aqueduct Racetrack, which along with Sunday's Fifth Avenue division for fillies, is the richest sire stakes in the nation.

All four of Saturday's graded stakes, however, will be contested at Gulfstream Park as its winter meet really gets into full swing. The Sugar Swirl (G3) kicks off the Rainbow 6, followed by the listed My Charmer, the Rampart (G3), the Fort Lauderdale (G2T) and the Harlan's Holiday (G3). The latter two races are potential steppingstones to the Pegasus World Cup Turf and the Pegasus World Cup (both G1) Jan. 25.

Sugar Swirl (GP, race 6, 2:30 ET): Two-time Princess Rooney (G2) winner Stormy Embrace is the big name in this six-furlong dash, but while she ran a close second in a sloppy renewal of this event last year, she is questionable on form after two recent subpar performances in state-bred company.

There are no questions about the current form of either A Bit of Both (3) or Lady's Island (4), who are respectively 6-for-8 and 7-for-8 this year. They project to be part of a hotly contested pace along with Bronx Beauty (2), who is no slouch herself with three stakes wins from her last four starts.

Of that threesome A Bit of Both is the most tractable, and she may look to tuck in just off the lead for hot-riding Paco Lopez. Her trainer Jason Servis is en fuego as well, having sent out nine stakes winners in the past three weeks—five of them last weekend including Maximum Security in the Cigar Mile (G1) and three Claiming Crown winners.

Heavenhasmynikki (9) is drawn favorably for a stalking trip, after being cooked in a duel for the lead in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1).

A - 3, 4

B - 9

My Charmer (GP, race 7, 3:00 ET): Mitchell Road (1) won four in a row climaxed by the Gallorette (G3T), and has had excuses in three subsequent starts. She was up against detrimental pace scenarios in both the Diana (G1T) and First Lady presented by UK Healthcare (G1T), and in between she was a boxed-in second to Ms Bad Behavior in the Three Chimneys Ladies Turf (G3T) on a speed-friendly turf course at Kentucky Downs. She can control things from the rail.

In backup mode are Altea (6), Munchkin Money (7) and--for a bomb—Hogans Holiday (10).

Altea needed five tries to get through preliminary allowance conditions, and is included purely on the Chad Brown Factor.

Munchkin Money tops the lineup in wins and earnings, and was 2 for 2 over the course last winter with Javier Castellano, who returns for this.

Hogans Holiday, a fat 20-1 on the morning line, occasionally fires a big race, as she did rallying to be a close fourth in the Honey Fox (G3T) on this course last March.

A - 1

B - 6, 7, 10

Rampart (GP, race 8, 3:30 ET): Unless the track seems exceptionally speedy I may play for a pace meltdown in this matchup, which contains serious gas in the form of Tweeting (8), Baccarat Fashion (9) and Cookie Dough (10). 

Baccarat Fashion went to the sidelines after bolting in late June, and has been vastly improved, winning two comeback starts for Peter Walder, who saddled two Claiming Crown victors last Saturday including the boxcar exacta of Yes I See (66-1) and Sensational Ride (12-1) in the Iron Horse. She comes off a pair of sizzling bullet workouts, but stretches out to a mile for the first time.

The three-headed keys are Pink Sands (4), Molto Bella (6) and Cairenn (10).

Pink Sands was a ship-down winner at Gulfstream last December, and has won three of five starts with Jose Ortiz compared with a 1-for-11 record for anyone else.

Molto Bella is 3-2-0 from five one-turn races on Lasix, and takes on older rivals for the first time after an encouraging win off the bench at Churchill Downs.

Cairenn likes to rally from off the pace, but was taken out of her best game when inexplicably put on the lead in the Chilukki (G3) first time back from a freshening.

A - 4, 6, 10

B - 9

Fort Lauderdale (GP, race 9, 4:00 ET): The one to beat on class is obviously Channel Cat (5), who has a win in the Bowling Green (G2T) surrounded by five respectable efforts in grade 1 company through the second half of 2019.

But for me this race has two notable subplots: Up the Ante (6) potentially getting an easy lead, and Marzo (9) looking to rebound from an off-the-board finish in the Red Smith (G3T).

Up the Ante is 3-2-0 from five starts when he gets to the top, and has been freshened since rallying from off the pace and galloping out strongly in a renewal of the Baltimore Washington Turf Cup (G3T) that was just off the course record.

Marzo upset the Sycamore (G3T) two starts after being claimed by Mike Maker, then was stymied behind horses into the stretch of the Red Smith and never got fully set down.

A - 6, 9

B - 5

Harlan's Holiday (GP, race 10, 4:30 ET): Prince Lucky (1) won the Hal's Hope (G3) and Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) here last winter and may go favored from the rail, as his connections look to see whether he can improve off three previous two-turn races that resulted in defeats by better than 37 lengths. The momentum factor is in his favor because trainer Todd Plethcer got off to a 6-for-11 start at the meet.

War Story (5) is now with Elizabeth Dobles—the durable gelding's ninth different trainer—and capable on one of his better efforts.

Realm (8) has been in the money five of six starts over the track including the Fred Hooper (G3) and Hal's Hope in 2017, and may get the right setup to hit the board if Flowers for Lisa (4) and Bodexpress (6) go out winging. I belive Julien Leparoux will fit him quite well with a sit-chilly trip.

In terms of momentum, Flowers for Lisa has to be downgraded due to Jorge Navarro's ice cold 2-for-34 start in defense of last winter's training title, along with the likelihood Bodexpress will be breathing down his neck from the outset.

Bodexpress got a much-needed break after unseating John Velazquez at the start of the Preakness (G1), and returned with two wins at Gulfstream Park West, notably a one-mile allowance win in track-record time under wraps. He seems to be getting along famously with Emisael Jaramillo, who is among the best front-end riders in the game. Moreover, Bodexpress ran well without the lead twice at Gulfstream last winter, when second to Shancealot in a ridiculously tough maiden sprint and second again (as a maiden) in the Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1).

A - 1, 6

B - 5, 8