Handicapping Saturday's Stakes: The Weather is a Humbug

The first official day of winter is also the last Saturday before Hanukkah and Christmas, and horseplayers can be forgiven for feeling Scrooged in terms of the stakes schedule. The only graded event is the Mr. Prospector Stakes (G3) for older sprinters at Gulfstream Park, where it's been windy and rainy the past several days, with a forecast for more of the same.

The richest race in the land is the $125,000 Queens County at frosty Aqueduct Racetrack, where racing was canceled Thursday because of dangerously low wind chill temperatures and it's not expected to get much above freezing again.

The weather will also be a factor at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, where heavy rainfall is likely for a sextet of $75,000 stakes that include the Sugar Bowl and Tenacious stakes.

Mr. Prospector (GP, race 10, 4:30 EST): The big names are X Y Jet (3) and Imperial Hint (2), who are using this race as a springboard to another clash in the $2.5 million Dubai Golden Shaheen Sponsored By Gulf News (G1), in which they ran first and third respectively a year ago.

Contrarians will look to beat both of them. X Y Jet hasn't been out since that race, and while he captured the Mr. Prospector in 2015 and 2017, those editions were at six furlongs and it has since been lengthened to its present seven-eighths. The injury-plagued gelding will turn 8 soon and has never been able to carry his speed this far.

Imperial Hint (soon to be 7) won at seven-eighths in the first two starts of his career, and while he also took the General George Stakes (G3) at that trip in 2017, his true brilliance has been at six furlongs. He has run just once since taking the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (G1) in track-record time at Saratoga Race Course, and was life and death to eke out a nose decision in the Vosburgh Invitational Stakes (G1). After that he was vet-scratched from the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) with a minor foot issue, and now he ventures past six panels for the first time since finishing off the board as the favorite in the 2018 Churchill Downs Stakes.

Lasting Legacy (5) and Diamond Ops (6) appear well positioned to capitalize if the two favorites wear themselves out up front. 

Lasting Legacy has won five of six starts with Jason Servis, and while he hasn't been out since winning Monmouth Park's version of the Mr. Prospector in late September, he has won off workouts several times beginning with an allowance race at seven furlongs.

Diamond Ops was second to Imperial Hint in the Vanderbilt, and has had seven weeks off since the Big Ass Fans Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1), in which he lunged at the break and never recovered. He should relish getting back to Gulfstream, where he has won four of five starts.

A — 5, 6

B — 2, 3

Queens County (Aqu, race 8, 3:46 EST): Stan the Man (2) has compiled a 4-4-1 record from 11 starts at Aqueduct, but I can only use him defensively first time back from a layoff of more than six months. He was entered in the twice-postponed Fall Highweight Handicap (G3) at six furlongs and must negotiate nine furlongs now. He was able to get the trip with an easy early lead last winter, but it's unlikely he will beat Major Cabbie (4) to the top in this matchup.

Major Cabbie has won three of five dirt races since being transferred to Peter Miller, and comes off a credible fifth in the Clark Presented by Northern Healthcare (G1) in which he pressed the pace between horses to the stretch. The strategy with this Into Mischief  colt seems simple enough, because he is 4 for 4 when on the lead at the pre-stretch call and winless in 11 other attempts; he is going for the lead here.

Backsideofthemoon (5) was claimed for $100,000 out of a win in the slop last month, and won the 2018 Jazil Stakes at 1 1/8 miles. He could wind up in the garden spot if Stan the Man takes it to Major Cabbie from the outset.

A — 4

B — 2, 5

Sugar Bowl (FG, race 10, 4:21 CST): Among the quartet of 2-year-olds exiting wins at Churchill Downs, the most promising are Shashashakemeup (1) and Gold Street (2). The former showed good speed from the rail to get clear early in his debut, and fought back gamely when headed for the lead at the top of the stretch to win going away. Gold Street, meanwhile, was a wrapped-up winner in the slop and may get similar conditions again.

The backups are Ryan's Cat (3), who ran away and hid from allowance sprinters at Hollywood Gaming at Mahoning Valley Race Course last out; and Amongst (4), a Godolphin homebred who was placed first over Ryan's Cat when last seen at Indiana Grand Racing & Casino in mid-October. The latter is bred to relish off going.

A — 1, 2

B — 3, 4

Tenacious (FG, race 12, 5:19 CST): Pioneer Spirit (4) and C Z Rocket (6) were first and second after a stretch-long dispute last month, and they are fastest among this group provided they can avoid a regression.

Pioneer Spirit, a five-time winner at the distance, was claimed out of that race for a pricey $150,000 by Robertino Diodoro, and will be running on the main track at Fair Grounds for the first time since finishing third in the 2018 Tenacious behind Tom's d'Etat, who took the Clark three weeks ago.

It's often wise to be leery about one-turn horses who put in a big effort stretching out and then come back for a second route try, and that is what C Z Rocket is attempting here.

If neither holds form, we fall back on Lone Sailor (1) and Blended Citizen (2).

Lone Sailor has been freshened since a fruitless trip to the Korea Cup in early September. He was good enough to run third in the New Orleans Handicap (G2) last March, and was beaten just a neck in a sloppy running of the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) after that.

Blended Citizen spent the first 10 months of 2019 on turf, and was then transferred to Brad Cox for a win on dirt at Churchill Downs last out. He won the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) and Peter Pan Stakes (G3) in 2018, so there is ample back class in play.

A — 4

B — 6

C — 1, 2