Focused on Santa Anita on a Saturday Rich in Stakes

There are nearly two dozen stakes races for handicappers to choose from on the last Saturday of the decade.

There are three stakes at Fair Grounds Racing & Slots highlighted by the return of Sir Winston, the winner of the Belmont Stakes Presented By NYRA Bets (G1), in the $75,000 Woodchopper scheduled for one mile on turf. 

Laurel Park has five $100,000 stakes, notably the Gin Talking, in which Cofactor shoots for her fourth straight victory.

Gulfstream Park has six stakes scheduled for grass. A torrential downpour overnight and into Monday morning wreaked havoc with the facility, and more showers are in the forecast, so the course is likely to be something other than firm.

Inclement weather has also been a factor at Santa Anita Park, which postponed its traditional Dec. 26 opening day for 48 hours due to major storms. As a result, the opening-day program is stacked with seven stakes—six of them graded, including the Runhappy Malibu (G1), La Brea (G1) and American Oaks (G1T). Interspersed with the grade 1 events are the San Antonio (G2), Robert J. Frankel (G3T) and Mathis Brothers Mile (G2T). 

Here's the rundown at The Great Race Place.

San Antonio (SA, race 5, 1:08 PT): Gift Box (2) is pegged as a slight favorite over the up-and-coming Midcourt (6), who steps up seeking his fifth straight score after dominating on the front end in the Native Diver (G3) and getting a big figure. I'm always a bit leery of loose-on-the-lead numbers, but he has won from well off the pace, too. 

Gift Box hasn't been out since a flat fourth in the Stephen Foster (G2) under the lights, but won this race off an eight-month absence a year ago and followed with two more very good races over the track, taking the Santa Anita Handicap Presented By San Manuel Indian Bingo and Casino (G1), and running a close second in the Gold Cup At Santa Anita (G1) to eventual Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Vino Rosso . Gift Box has enough tactical speed to pressure Midcourt early. 

The backups are Gray Magician (1), who has won or placed in four starts through the second half of his 3-year-old campaign, notably missing in a photo to Big Ass Fans Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Spun to Run in the Smarty Jones (G3); and Draft Pick (4), who has been consistently faster at age 4 than he was last year, even though he has only an allowance win to show for it.

A - 2, 6

B - 1, 4

American Oaks (SA, race 6, 1:44 PT): I'm keying Mucho Unusual (3) and Lady Prancealot (5), and will take the position of letting Vibrance (8) beat me.

Vibrance is 3-1 on the morning line and getting some buzz after running third in the Red Carpet (G3) at 11 furlongs, so unlike the others she is considered a known quantity at Saturday's mile and a quarter. The Red Carpet is her only turf race beyond a mile, though, and the winner, Zuzanna, was running in $8,000 claimers earlier this year.

Mucho Unusual is third back from a late-summer freshening and gets a big rider switch back to Joel Rosario, who is 2 for 2 with her on grass.

Lady Prancealot packs the best closing punch and is the only other graded turf stakes winner in the lineup besides Mucho Unusual.

The backup is Giza Goddess (7), who closed out 2018 winning the Blue Norther Stakes over the local course, and is third off the layoff now. She figures to be prompting the pace behind So Much Happy and may get first run turning for home.

A - 3, 5

B - 7

La Brea (SA, race 7, 2:18 PT): Bellafina (5) is 9-5 on the line but really figures to be odds-on, and deservedly so.

As Bellafina reaffirmed with a fast-closing second in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), which followed four graded stakes wins from four previous starts at Santa Anita, she is lengths better on this track than anywhere else.

The backups are Bell's the One (6) and First Star (1), the one-two finishers from the Lexus Raven Run (G2). Bell's the One is the only graded stakes winner in the field other than Bellafina, but First Star ran huge in the Raven Run considering it was just her third career start.

A - 5

B - 1, 6

Robert J. Frankel (SA, race 8, 2:51 PT): Mirth (7) is a stand-alone on class, as she captured the Rodeo Drive (G1T) before setting the pace to deep stretch in the Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1T) and none of her rivals have won a graded stakes of any kind. Moving on...

Malibu (SA, race 9, 3:26 PT): Omaha Beach  (5) certainly needs no introduction as the 4-5 morning-line choice against four opponents, three of which are trained by Bob Baffert.

Omaha Beach is an exceptionally talented and versatile colt and will likely become an Eclipse Award finalist in the 3-year-old and Sprint categories if he gets it done here. But the reality is that those division titles—at least to my mind—are already spoken for, and his sluggishness through the first six furlongs of the Dirt Mile was at least somewhat discouraging. This race is a prep for his career finale in the Runhappy Pegasus World Cup Invitationa (G1) four weeks from Saturday. 

Complexity (2) won the Champagne Stakes (G1) in a romp last year for Chad Brown, and after two perplexingly dismal follow-up performances, he returned from a layoff and looked like his old self winning an optional claimer at Aqueduct Racetrack. This race looks like his main objective, and he is more than fast enough when he fires.

A - 2

B - 5

Mathis Brothers Mile (SA, race 10, 4:00 PT): The three graded stakes winners in the field are Mo Forza (5), Neptune's Storm (6) and Kingly (7).

Kingly has led through the early going in his last five starts against graded company, and has managed to hang on just once.

Mo Forza was still a maiden at the end of the summer but has since won three straight, capped by triumphs in the Twilight Derby (G2T) and Hollywood Derby (G1T) from just off the pace.

Neptune's Storm was third in the Twilight Derby and second in the Hollywood Derby. Those races were at nine furlongs, and he should relish the cutback to a mile, a distance at which he has won three of four starts.

A - 5, 6

B - 7