Into Mischief Tops the Charts

For the year-end tables of leading sires in various categories of APEX ratings, which measure the frequency that stallions sire runners who meet certain earnings percentage thresholds, sires have to have had 200 or more year-starters going back as far as seven seasons (a horse is counted as one 'year-starter' each year it races, as with the average earnings index). The top category is 'A Runners', which measures the top 2% of earners in each jurisdiction each year. 

On Jan. 14, 2016, we published the leading sires by A Runner Index for the years 2009-15 (Thoroughbred Daily News, Jan. 14, 2016). The top three sires were Galileo (4.09 A Runner Index), Into Mischief  (4.07), and War Front  (3.89).

Galileo, whose first foals were born in 2003 and raced in 2005, had 1,945 year-starters 2009-15; War Front, whose first foals were born in 2008 and raced in 2010 (so the statistics were covering six years in his case, not seven), had 655 year-starters.

Into Mischief's first crop foaled in 2010 and raced in 2012; he only had a total of 140 foals in his first four crops (his fourth crop were 2-year-olds of 2015), so he made the list with just 209 year-starters in the four seasons from 2012-15. But his second ranking on that list was the first time we had statistical confirmation that this sire was the real deal; there was a case for saying Into Mischief was on his way to being one of the top three sires in America, along with Tapit  and War Front.

Into Mischief's 2014 crop—his fifth—numbered 161 foals, and he averaged around 160 foals for each of his next three crops. His eighth crop are 2-year-olds of 2019, so he has made up for lost time, with now around 780 foals of racing age. But this is what Into Mischief has done since his four big crops started racing: in 2016, he was North America's leading sire of 2-year-olds. In 2017, he was North America's No. 3 sire of 2-year-olds, behind Scat Daddy and fellow F2010 sire, Curlin .

In 2018 he was leading sire of 2-year-olds, and in 2019 he is not only North America's leading sire of 2-year-olds for the third time in four years, he is also No. 1 on the North American general sire list, including 53 black-type horses in 2019, of which 23 are black-type winners. He has six graded stakes winners (two grade 1) in 2019, and five grade 1-placed 2-year-olds through Dec. 27. 

How good is this sire? Since he started having big crops, he has been the leading 2-year-old sire three times and ranked third the other time, and is now the leader on the general sire list. 'Remarkable' is a word that maybe gets over-used, but in my view, Into Mischief really is a remarkable sire. His relentless march to the top is breathtaking.

As an aside, we're entitled to ask if the tables would look the same if he had been forced to operate under a 140-mare cap? It's entirely possible under those circumstances he wouldn't be the Into Mischief we know today.

Diary of an Eclipse Voter

In a year where there is quite a bit of room for discussion, a few of the Eclipse Awards are cut and dried, but most are not.

One prediction I'm prepared to make, as an Eclipse voter myself, is that the three finalists for Horse of the Year will be Bricks and Mortar, Mitole , and Maximum Security. All three will win their respective divisions in a canter.

Bricks and Mortar, a 5-year-old by Giant's Causeway, is a certainty for champion male turf horse after going 6-for-6, including five grade 1s and a grade 2, in a season stretching from January's Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (G1T) through the Nov. 2 Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (G1T), at distances from nine to 12 furlongs.

Mitole, by Giant's Causeway's son, Eskendereya, is sure to be named champion sprinter. He went 6-for-7 in 2019, with his grade 1 wins coming in the six-furlong Breeders' Cup Sprint, the seven-furlong Churchill Downs Handicap presented by Twinspires.com and the Forego Stakes Presented by Encore Boston Harbor, and the one-mile Runhappy Metropolitan Mile. He also has a chance to be named older dirt male, though I suspect Vino Rosso  will win that category over McKinzie.

And Maximum Security's win over fellow 3-year-old Spun to Run, himself fresh from a victory in the Big Ass Fans Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1), clinched his title as champion 3-year-old colt.

But which will be Horse of the Year? Not so clear. Personally, I give Mitole the edge over Bricks and Mortar, basically off his Met Mile win over McKinzie and Thunder Snow.

The big winner, from this list of three candidates, is Japan's breeding industry. Bricks And Mortar is going to Japan's top stallion operation, Shadai, which stood Sunday Silence and Deep Impact and is always on the lookout for top-class outcrosses to that blood.

Eskendereya, now sire of two Met Mile winners in three years (the other was Spendthrift stallion and 2017 winner Mor Spirit , meaning with Mitole standing there as well, Spendthrift has a total monopoly on Met Mile winners by Eskendereya), already stands in Japan. And also already in Japan for 2020, again at Shadai, is New Year's Day, the son of Street Cry and sire of Maximum Security.

New Year's Day was actually sold to Brazil, but was then snapped up for Japan in a hurry after Maximum Security won and then was disqualified from the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1). Maximum Security remains in training for 2020, and seemingly will target the new $20 million Saudi Cup and the Dubai World Cup Sponsored By Emirates Airline (G1).

Another interesting angle from the breeding point of view is this unlikely legacy of Street Cry. How many people (answer: none) would have predicted the most prominent horse from the Street Cry line might be a son of New Year's Day whose claim to fame was that he won the 2013 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) in his third and final career start for the Gary and Mary West and trainer Bob Baffert.

By the sire of two of the all-time great racemares in Zenyatta and Winx, Street Cry's best sire son is Street Sense , the first horse to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and following year's Kentucky Derby (Nyquist  is the second, and only other horse to do it), and who will be represented in 2020 by the rising 5-year-old McKinzie, himself a top sire prospect who could easily clash with Maximum Security in the Middle East, and by the rising 3-year-old Maxfield. McKinzie and Maximum Security, at least, in 2021 would represent a serious opportunity for Street Cry's male line to be extended.

Other Eclipse Awards

A few of the other categories are straightforward, most are not. We're required to select a 1-2-3 in all categories (to break ties). So here goes—the thought processes of an Eclipse voter. Feel free to tweet your comments to @billoppenheim; the voting doesn't close until Jan. 2, so you still have time to influence at least one voter.

Champion 2-year-old colt: This is the most difficult category, and the temptation is to pick No Body.

With American 2-year-olds so lightly raced now, virtually all of the serious contenders had four or less starts. I still think the Breeders' Cup Juvenile turns out to be the key race, even though after Maxfield (by Street Sense) had to be scratched and Dennis' Moment (by Tiznow ) went to his knees the race became a lot more winnable for the 45-1 shot Storm the Court (by Court Vision ).

You can make a case for at least eight horses, including Hopeful Stakes (G1) winner Basin (from the first crop of Liam's Map ); Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1T) winner Structor (first crop of Palace Malice ); Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G2T) winner Four Wheel Drive (first crop of American Pharoah ); Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) winner Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile); and 12-length Nashua Stakes (G3) winner Independence Hall (first crop of Constitution ).

Myself, I think the champion should be a grade 1 winner, so my picks are: 1. Maxfield (won the grade 1 Claiborne Breeders' Futurity), 2. Storm the Court, 3. Dennis' Moment (off at 4-5 in the Juvenile after scoring an impressive bloodless win in the grade 3 Iroquois).

You'd like to have seen them all have run once more, really.

Champion 2-year-old filly: Pretty straightforward: British Idiom, by a son of Tapit called Flashback  who, like New Year's Day, was raced by the Wests and stood at Hill 'n' Dale. He was discarded because of lack of support from outside breeders.

She is the champion—she won the Darley Alcibiades (G1), then won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), over Donna Veloce and Bast, both from Uncle Mo 's fifth crop. Bast won three other grade 1s and gets my vote for second, over Sharing (Speightstown ), winner of a very competitive Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1T).

Still listed as being owned by the Wests, Flashback now stands at Glenn Brok's Diamond B Farm in Pennsylvania; Brok, incidentally, also owns the horse transport company Brook Ledge.

Champion 3-year-old colt: Again straightforward: Maximum Security won three other grade 1 tests besides crossing the wire first in the Kentucky Derby—the Xpressbet Florida Derby, TVG.com Haskell Invitational, and, decisively, the Cigar Mile, in which he defeated Spun to Run who was fresh from beating a good field, including Omaha Beach , in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1).

Spun to Run (Hard Spun ) is my second choice, and for third I go for Code of Honor (first crop of Frankel's brother, Noble Mission ), though others might prefer Omaha Beach (War Front) or Country House (Lookin At Lucky ), who inherited the Derby. But I think the winner is decisive: Maximum Security.

Champion 3-year-old filly: The middle-distance dirt fillies rather divided up the top races: Serengeti Empress (Alternation ) won the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1); Dunbar Road (Quality Road ) won the Mother Goose (G2) and Alabama (G1); and Street Band (Istan) won the Cotillion (G1), defeating the only two-time grade 1 winner among these, Guarana (Ghostzapper ), who won the Acorn (G1) and Coaching Club American Oaks (G1).

I thought the most impressive performances were by the sprinting filly Covfefe (Into Mischief), who went 5-for-6 this year, including the wins in the Test (G1) and the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), both at seven furlongs; and the turf filly, Concrete Rose (Twirling Candy ), who went 4-for-4 for the year, including scores in the Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1T) and the new (therefore ungraded) Saratoga Oaks Invitational. I will go for Covfefe, with Concrete Rose second, and Guarana third.

Champion older dirt male: Vino Rosso (Curlin) gets the call here, winning three grade 1s at 10 furlongs (though controversially disqualified in favor of the 3-year-old Code of Honor in the grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup), finishing up with a convincing win over McKinzie in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1).

McKinzie is undoubtedly the better horse at the more conventional American dirt distance of nine furlongs, at which he won the Whitney (G1), rather handily, over Yoshida  and Vino Rosso. McKinzie made seven starts on the year for two wins and five seconds. 

Champion older dirt female: Though she was defeated by Blue Prize (Pure Prize) in the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1), Midnight Bisou (Midnight Lute ) won her other seven starts this year, including three top-level scores, and deserves the championship. Blue Prize is a clear second choice, and I thought Elate (Medaglia d'Oro ), who won two grade 2s this year, then ran second to both Midnight Bisou and Blue Prize in grade 1s before a courageous fourth against the boys in the Breeders' Cup Classic, earns the bronze medal.

Champion sprinter: Mitole, as noted, wins this category for me, but a very honorable second is World of Trouble  (Kantharos ), who went 4-for-4 on the year, starting odds-on in all four races, before injury stopped him after Belmont Stakes weekend. He won the Carter Handicap (G1) at seven furlongs on dirt, the Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. presented by MassMutual (G2T) going 5 1/2 furlongs at Churchill Downs, and Jaipur Invitational (G1T) going six furlongs at  Belmont Park on grass in 2019.

I was tempted to pick the 3-year-old speedball Shancelot (Shanghai Bobby) for third, but he was beaten by Omaha Beach in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship before running second to Mitole in the Breeders' Cup, so I'll go for Omaha Beach for third in this category.

Champion female sprinter: Covfefe gets the nod here for me, but again there's a very strong second choice in Belvoir Bay, a 6-year-old Equiano mare who led all the way and beat the boys in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1T) at five furlongs at Santa Anita Park. She had also run second to Blue Point in the six-furlong Al Quoz Sprint Sponsored By Azizi Developments (G1) in Dubai. Third is up for debate, but I'd go for Marley's Freedom, a 5-year-old Blame  mare who won two grade 2s and ran second in two grade 1s in her four 2019 starts through July.

Champion turf male: Bricks and Mortar in his easiest win of the year. World of Trouble  runs second for here as well, with maybe Arklow, a 5-year-old by Arch who won the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1T), third.

Champion turf female: This was a really salty division, but the winner for me is Uni (More Than Ready ), who won the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1T). Sistercharlie (Myboycharlie), also from the Chad Brown stable, won three grade 1s and ran third in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1T), is my runner-up, and the show horse is Got Stormy, by Get Stormy , who beat the boys (and Uni) in the Fourstardave (G1) at Saratoga Race Course and ran second to Uni in the Breeders' Cup Mile

I'll pass on the people categories for the moment, as well as the jumpers (although Winston C, by Rip Van Winkle, looks a lock to win this), so, for the moment anyway, here is what my Eclipse ballot will look like. As I say, feel free to tweet us your comments, thanks for listening, and best wishes to all for a healthy and safe 2020.

2yo Male: 1. Maxfield, 2. Storm the Court, 3. Dennis' Moment

2yo Filly: 1. British Idiom, 2. Bast, 3. Sharing

3yo Male: 1. Maximum Security, 2. Spun to Run, 3. Code of Honor

3yo Filly: 1. Covfefe, 2. Concrete Rose, 3. Guarana

Older Dirt Male: 1. Vino Rosso, 2. McKinzie, 3. Mitole

Older Dirt Female: 1. Midnight Bisou, 2. Blue Prize, 3. Elate

Male Sprinter: 1. Mitole, 2. World of Trouble, 3. Omaha Beach

Female Sprinter: 1. Covfefe, 2. Belvoir Bay, 3. Marley's Freedom

Male Turf: 1. Bricks and Mortar, 2. World of Trouble, 3. Arklow

Female Turf: 1. Uni, 2. Sistercharlie, 3. Got Stormy

Horse of the Year: 1. Mitole, 2. Bricks and Mortar, 3. Maximum Security