Handicapping: Santa Anita, Gulfstream Offer Key Stakes

Newly turned 3-year-olds comprise the bulk of the stakes action on the first Saturday of the season. There are five sophomore stakes at Gulfstream Park, and among them are a trio of hundred-granders: the Mucho Macho Man Stakes on dirt; and the Kitten's Joy Stakes (G3T) and Ginger Brew Stakes on turf. 

A stakes doubleheader at Santa Anita Park begins with the Sham Stakes (G3), which offers qualifying points (10-4-2-1) for the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1), and concludes with the San Gabriel Stakes (G2T) for older grass males.

Other than that, Pauseforthecause looks every bit of 3-5 odds to lead six rival New York-bred sprinters a merry chase in the $100,000 La Verdad Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack.

Sham (SA, race 5, 1:40 PT): This two-turn mile is essentially a first-level allowance, as the field is made up of five last-out maiden graduates and Zimba Warrior, who has run third in a couple stakes since his maiden win.

Bob Baffert's pair of Authentic (1) and Azul Coast (4) scored at first asking in very different manner. Authentic dueled early and drew clear in a 5 1/2-furlong dash at Del Mar, while Azul Coast rallied from dead last in a two-turn mile at Los Alamitos Race Course on a wet track rated good.

Authentic breaks from the rail, and he will likely set the pace under pressure from Uncaptured Hero, who is one of two Richard Baltas-trained runners along with Taishan (6). Authentic and Uncaptured Hero recorded comparable fractions in their respective Nov. 9 maiden sprint wins at Del Mar.

Taishan, like Azul Coast, beat maidens going two turns most recently, and was flattered when the runner-up, Tizamagician, won impressively earlier this week.

Ragozin and Thoro-graph "sheet-style" figures account for ground loss, so Azul Coast probably comes up huge, as he was six wide throughout (albeit on a day when outside paths seemed the place to be).

A — 1

B — 4, 6

San Gabriel (SA, race 8, 3:24 PT): Cleopatra's Strike (3) was second by a nose in the 2019 San Gabriel, and was then sidelined for eight months before returning in September to take the John Henry Turf Cup Stakes (G2T) second time back. He subsequently flattened out late in the Hollywood Turf Cup (G2T) at 1 ½ miles, and should appreciate the cutback to 1 1/8 miles.

So too should Overdue (4), who was right with Cleopatra's Strike to the stretch of the Hollywood Turf Cup before giving way in his first marathon. He is still relatively lightly raced with three wins from eight starts, and is a viable candidate to bounce back at a square price (6-1 on the morning line).

The others who fit in this spot are Desert Stone (1), who has been in the money three times at the grade 1/grade 2 level; and Majestic Eagle (6), who captured the American Stakes (G3T) last summer.

A — 3, 4

B — 1, 6

Kitten's Joy (GP, race 7, 3:00 ET): We're focusing on Irish Mias (2) and Summer to Remember (9), who emerge from good performances over the local course.

On opening weekend, Irish Mias ran second in the Pulpit Stakes behind the unbeaten Sole Volante, who will try the main track in the Mucho Macho Man later on the card. Irish Mias took the $200,000 Laurel Futurity Stakes in early fall, and that makes him the only stakes winner in the lineup other than Yesterdayoncemore, who took the Juvenile Fillies Turf Stakes at Del Mar in her stateside debut.

Summer to Remember was second in his first try at Saratoga Race Course behind Decorated Invader, who returned to win the Summer Stakes (G1T) at Woodbine. Summer to Remember returned here Dec. 11 going a mile, and dueled to the top of the stretch before edging clear through a sharp final quarter in under 23 seconds.

Bless the Kitten (4)—a Kitten's Joy colt homebred for Ken and Sarah Ramsey—finished fourth in his unveiling at Keeneland, and became one of five next-out winners from that race when he got up in time at Churchill Downs a few weeks later.

Island Commish (8) toyed with starter-optional company twice when Paco Lopez and blinkers came on at Gulfstream Park West. He is tractable and should be positioned up close from the outset.

A — 2, 9

B — 4, 8

Ginger Brew (GP, race 9, 4:00 ET): The prospect of a hot pace looms owing to the presence of Cheermeister (1), the front-running winner of the Wait a While Stakes opening weekend; and Abscond (4), the 9-5 morning-line choice after surviving a long duel to win the Natalma Stakes (G1T) and battling for command through the first six furlongs of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1T).

This pace scenario could set the table for Moral Reasoning (3) and/or Sunset Promise (6).

Moral Reasoning, who has Eclipse Award-winning connections all around, stretches out for trainer Chad Brown after a maiden win that was more impressive than indicated by the half-length margin. She rushed up from the rail only to get shuffled back, went around four wide on the far turn, and got up under confident handling to best Stunting, who returned to run big here Dec. 29.

Sunset Promise rallied up the rail for second behind Cheermeister last out, and gets a better setup for the rematch. Three back, she was good enough to run second in the Selima Stakes behind Sharing, who came back to post a 13-1 upset in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1T).

A — 3, 6

B — 1, 4

Mucho Macho Man (GP, race 10, 4:30 ET): Chance It (2) is the big name and likely chalk after winning the $400,000 In Reality division of the Florida Sire Stakes in late September. However, he then missed a scheduled start in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) due to a minor issue, and then missed another in the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes due to quarantine restrictions. He returns in a field packed with rival early speed, notably As Seen On Tv (4), who stretches out after two big-figure sprints.

We're going to play for a meltdown and key a couple of closers, South Bend (1) and the aforementioned Sole Volante (6).

Whether it was the slop, or two turns, or perhaps being positioned too close to the early pace, South Bend caved in through the stretch in the Kentucky Jockey Club. He will look to rebound in this mile race out of the chute, and is perfect from three starts in one-turn races.

Sole Volante came from next-to-last to win at first asking, then rallied from a dozen lengths behind to win the Pulpit. His sire Karakontie  is all turf, but his dam produced a six-time dirt winner.

A — 1, 6

B — 2, 4

Happy New Year, and best of luck in 2020.