Handicapping: Stakes Doubles at Gulfstream, Santa Anita

The four graded events to be run Saturday, Jan. 11 are predictably at warm-weather tracks, as Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita Park each offer stakes doubleheaders.

If you don't like the weather in South Florida these past few days just wait a minute, because it has been quite windy and there will be a chance for fast-moving rainstorms that could factor into the Tropical Turf Stakes (G3T) and the Marshua's River Stakes (G3T), both for older grass runners.

The forecast is for fast and firm conditions and temperatures in the mid-60s at Santa Anita, "The Great Race Place," where older fillies and mares are spotlighted in the Las Cienegas Stakes (G3T) and La Canada Stakes (G3).

The only other six-figure stake in the nation is at Aqueduct Racetrack, where New York-bred sprinter My Boy Tate will try to win the $100,000 Say Florida Sandy for the second time in three years. Remarkably, it will be about as warm in South Ozone Park, N.Y. as it will be in Arcadia, Calif., with temperatures in the low 60s expected.

Marshua's River (GP, race 8, 3:34 ET): It's difficult to see past the three logical contenders—Sweet Bye and Bye (4), Andina Del Sur (5) and Munchkin Money (7)—in a relatively short field that includes an ambitiously spotted pacesetter in Piece by Peace and an aggressively spotted Magic Star, who has run just twice for Chad Brown.

Taking a position against a Chad Brown turf horse is obviously fraught with danger, but while Magic Star has shown some ability, she is a deep closer going on one of the more speed-favoring turf courses around, and taking on some seasoned stakes mares to boot.

Sweet Bye and Bye raced wide when third behind Andina Del Sur in the Forever Together at the Big A last out, but could turn the tables with a potential lone-stalker trip just off the early pace. However, as a three-time stakes winner, Andina Del Sur is the most accomplished member of the field and she is handy enough to get into position at the pre-stretch call.

Munchkin Money (7) comes off a rallying third in the My Charmer behind 2-5 shot Mitchell Road, which was her first loss over the local course from three starts.

A—4, 5

B—7

Tropical Turf (GP, race 10, 4:38 ET): I initially wanted to go against A Thread of Blue (8) because he meets older horses for the first time, and drew outside Gidu (4) and Gemonteer (7), two rivals who are capable of outsprinting him early.

But the cutback to a mile figures to help A Thread of Blue, whose last start was a solid second in the Hill Prince Stakes (G2T) in early fall when he was worn down by Neptune's Song, a solid horse who has since been chasing Mo Forza around out west. Moreover, A Thread of Blue is 3 for 3 on the local layout and was able to win the 2019 Palm Beach Stakes (G3T) here with a stalking trip.

The 2018 Palm Beach winner, Maraud (2), also likes this course, and could fall through the cracks a bit as he returns for new trainer Joe Orseno, with the likelihood of a pocket trip just off the pace.

Tusk (6) gets a class check two starts after being claimed for $32,000 by the red-hot Saffie Joseph Jr., after being bottled up turning for home in the Claiming Crown Emerald early at the meet.

I want to include Mike Maker's duo of Empire of War (1) and Exulting (9) as well. Empire of War has been on turf rated something other than firm in five of six attempts, so it's still tough to say exactly what his ceiling might be. Exulting fits numbers-wise off any of his last four starts, and picks up leading rider Irad Ortiz Jr. after running behind horses through the stretch in the Fort Lauderdale Stakes (G2T).

A—8

B—2, 6, 9

C—1

Las Cienegas (SA, race 3, 1:32 PT): Five-horse fields generally offer little in the way of value, but that might not be the case here with Jolie Olimpica pegged at 6-5 and Storm the Hill at 9-5.

Jolie Olimpica was purchased after winning three starts in her native Brazil during the first half of 2019, but has no experience in 5 1/2-furlong dashes like this. For the most part, neither does Storm the Hill, whose only try at the distance was an off-the-board finish in the 2018 Giant's Causeway.

While the distance may be too short for those two, it might actually be a bit too far for Kentan Road (2), but she ought to be able to set up shop on a clear early lead and is worth a win bet if allowed to go off at something near her 4-1 ML quote.

La Canada (SA, race 8, 4:07 PT): This day could be a potential bloodbath since we are not only taking a shot against Chad Brown on the other coast, but also forsaking Bob Baffert's pair of Der Lu and Message, who closed out their sophomore campaigns beating first-level allowance/optional claimers.

The three graded stakes winners in the lineup are Queen Bee to You (3), Horologist (6) and Spiced Perfection (7), and we'll focus on them.

Horologist won four in a row through the middle of last year, climaxed by the Monmouth Oaks (G3), and received a well deserved freshening after coming up empty sprinting in the Lexus Raven Run Stakes (G2) when last seen in mid-October. She relocated to Santa Anita right after that and figures to relish getting back to two turns.

Spiced Perfection is a 50% winner (nine for 18) on dirt, but is pushing the envelope at 1 1/16 miles after having everything her own way wiring the Go for Wand Handicap (G3) through easy fractions.

Queen Bee to You normally likes to mix it up early, but showed a change of pace rallying from last to win the Bayakoa (G3) last month at Los Alamitos Race Course. On this track, though, she has won just once from nine attempts.

A—6

B—3, 7

Say Florida Sandy (Aqu, race 8, 3:55 ET): As mentioned at the top, My Boy Tate (3) won this race in 2018, leading all the way on a sealed muddy track. He is the slight 5-2 favorite over The Caretaker (7) and the hard-knocking T Loves a Fight (5).

It's worth noting that My Boy Tate's last four wins over the past two-plus years were all on wet tracks, the most recent when he overcame a wide trip to win a division of the New York Stallion Series first time back from a 13-month layoff.

T Loves a Fight, a five-time winner in 2019, ran a credible second behind My Boy Tate that day, and gets a five-pound swing in the weights for the rematch.

Arthur's Hope (6) may be a square price and has some positive factors as he goes third off the layoff with several back figures that put him right there, including a win this course and trip (seven furlongs) last winter.

The Caretaker could "bounce" after back-to-back peak efforts to end his 5-year-old season, but those were his first two starts for Rudy Rodriguez, so perhaps he has found the "hole card."

A—3, 7

B—5, 6