Expectations for Solid, Broad-Based Market at Keeneland

There are no champions such as last year's record-tying $5 million broodmare prospect Abel Tasman in this year's Keeneland January Horses of All Ages Sale, but a broad-based, solid market is expected when the sale kicks off Jan. 13 and runs through Jan. 17.

Purchased by M.V. Magnier on behalf of Coolmore Stud interests, champion and six-time grade 1 winner Abel Tasman led a strong 2019 edition of the auction that is the first sale of the year. At the end of four days last year, 951 horses had grossed $48.28 million, with a record cumulative average price of $50,768 and a record-equaling $20,000 median.

Extended to five sessions, beginning at 10 a.m. ET daily, this year's catalog totals 1,856 entries, up 17.9% over the 1,574 entered in 2019. Through Jan. 11, there have been 384 horses withdrawn from the sale.

Among the top prospects are grade 2 winner Stormy Embrace (Hip 398J), cataloged as a broodmare prospect; Meets Expectations (Hip 398L), the dam of World of Trouble , a grade 1 winner on dirt and turf and an Eclipse Award finalist in the male sprinter and male turf horse categories; grade 1-placed Enaya Alrabb (Hip 795D), cataloged as a broodmare prospect; Inflamed (Hip 795E), the dam of grade 1 winner Mo Forza, an Eclipse Award finalist for male turf horse; and Pomeroys Pistol (Hip 795K), the dam of 2019 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) winner Thousand Words.

"While it lacks that blockbuster—you would love to have one of those every year—it's a nice group of horses," said Mark Taylor of Taylor Made Sales Agency, which sold Abel Tasman on behalf of China Horse Club and Clearsky Farms. "There are nice graded stakes-winning mares, maiden mares off the track, some graded stakes-producing mares that are still relatively young, and as always a good group of yearlings.

"There is a lot of quality here, and you never know where an opportunity is going to pop up."

Taylor said rare January horses like Abel Tasman rock the house when they go through the ring but have minimal impact on attracting a larger group of buyers. According to Taylor, a greater attraction for buyers would be a major dispersal, which this year's sale is also lacking.

"The people who were going to buy Abel Tasman are at every sale," Taylor said, "so I don't think it has a big effect on who shows up. Where you might get an extra draw is if you have a big dispersal that has a lot of horses at different levels."

Taylor said the January sale at one time was considered an auction where breeders entered horses they were unable to sell in November, but it has gained traction in recent years as a viable market on its own merits.

"It's not a second-class sale anymore," Taylor said. "A lot of people could have sold these horses in November, but they would just as soon sell in January where they will be a bigger fish. Times have changed. A long time ago, they would say, 'I'm not going to get the buyers,' and it was a second-tier auction."

Bob Elliston, Keeneland's vice president of racing and sales, said the January sale has benefited from breeders sending better-quality horses through the ring that have achieved success on the track or in the breeding shed. That has attracted more buyers and is a factor in the greater number of entries this year, he said.

"This is a different sale than it was seven or eight years ago," Elliston said. "It's now a standalone sale, with quality short yearlings, quality broodmare prospects, quality racing prospects, and quality mares that are getting ready to foal. Folks realize that, and that's why we're seeing the inventory growing.

"It is a self-fulfilling prophecy when success is resonant with the sale, and people expect it will repeat itself. Breeders and consignors know they can put a quality horse in here and get a good price for it, and it's going to be an outcome that's good for the buyer."

Consignor Mike Recio of South Point Sales said the January sale provides opportunities for breeders at all levels to improve their programs.

"I think you will see a lot of people being realistic (in setting reserves) with some of these mares with later cover dates, trying to find new homes at reasonable prices, which is exciting for regional breeders," he said. "They can buy better quality than normal and have better foals for their regional programs. I think it's a great shopping platform. I'm trying to convince some of my clients to take a shot on some of these mares in foal to $15,000-$20,000 studs and try to hit home runs that way."

Consignor Stuart Morris said the January sale should continue the solid market seen during November sales.

"Coming off what I feel was a positive year last year, I don't anticipate anything less than we saw in November," he said, adding that markets can sometimes be impacted by uncertainty in a presidential election year. "Election years make some people a little leery sometimes."