BackTrack: Silverbulletday Powers to Kentucky Oaks Win

The biggest question mark in the weeks, days, and hours before the 1999 Kentucky Oaks (G1) was not whether trainer Bob Baffert was going to win the race, but with whom. He had said throughout his now annual pilgrimage to the Bluegrass that his 1998 2-year-old champion filly Silverbulletday was Oaks-bound, but was non-committal in regards to Excellent Meeting, who had finished second to the champion in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) last November. Following an unbeaten string in '99 of the Las Virgenes Stakes (G1), Santa Anita Oaks (G1), and Fantasy Stakes (G2), Baffert was strongly considering sending her against the colts in the next day's Kentucky Derby (G1).

Baffert cross-entered John and Betty Mabee's Excellent Meeting in the Oaks and Derby and straddled the fence for as long as he could. But the question was answered in the early morning hours of Oaks Day when Excellent Meeting was sent to the track to stretch her legs. He made it official a few hours later by scratching her, leaving Mike Pegram's brilliant Silverbulletday to carry the Baffert banner in the Oaks.

Silverbulletday's 1999 campaign had been equally as flawless, rattling off back-to-back wins in New Orleans in the Davona Dale Stakes (G3) and Fair Grounds Oaks (G3) and a tour de force in Keeneland's Ashland Stakes (G1). She had also been under strong consideration, at least from the general public, for the Derby as well. In future book betting taken at Churchill Downs at three different intervals during the spring, Silverbulletday had drawn solid support, closing at prices of 17-1, 25-1, and 15-1 in 24-horse betting pools.

However, Pegram had the proper antidote for what could have been a bad case of Derby fever, and that was having won last year's Derby with Real Quiet. While there had to be plenty of temptation to go for back-to-back wins, he remained calm and collected and allowed Baffert to aim his filly for the Oaks.

Silverbulletday aimed herself for the winner's circle immediately after the Oaks with an easier-than-it-looked two-length victory.

"Mike is the guy who helps me manage the filly," Baffert said. "Since early April, he's been saying we should go for the Oaks and not the Derby.

"I always go with my gut feeling," he said. "Every time I've veered from that, I've wound up doing the wrong thing."

There was no doing the wrong thing by sending Silverbulletday to the Oaks. She had looked spectacular winning the Ashland by seven lengths, and if it was possible, had looked even better in the days leading up to the Oaks. A pair of bullet workouts over the Churchill Downs strip earlier in the month had her set up for something big, and the $500,000 Oaks was a big enough target.

Pressure cooker

With the scratch of Excellent Meeting, who had been pegged as the clear second choice, Silverbulletday figured 2-5 or less. By the time the Baffert entourage had made the walk from the backside to the paddock, the odds board read 1-9. It would drift to as high as 1-5 before dropping back to 1-9 by post time.

Pre-race, it seemed Team Baffert was up to their old tricks. The toyed with the ESPN2 television crew, and Baffert signed autographs and played to the crowd. However, there was some serious underlying pressure and the heat was on.

"I felt like we had to win this race," Baffert said. "She's got a lot of fans and the people here in Kentucky seem to really love her. If we didn't win this race, I was going to have to hide in the president's box until the last cab had left this place."

"I felt tremendous pressure to win this race—the most pressure I've felt in 20 years of riding," said jockey Gary Stevens, who had his game face on from the get-go. "I knew the only way this filly was going to get beat was if I messed something up. I've never ridden as big a lock as this."

Six other trainers were brave enough to send a 3-year-old filly to challenge Silverbulletday. Perhaps they were tempting fate, or seeking some grade 1 black type. All had tried her before without success save Sweeping Story, winner of the Bourbonette Breeders' Cup Stakes at Turfway Park in March, and Positive Gal, an allowance winner from the D. Wayne Lukas stable. Linda and Kerry Ozment's The Happy Hopper, having finishing 2 1/2 lengths behind Excellent Meeting in the Fantasy, was the most likely candidate to anchor the exacta and was sent off at 5-1. Next in the wagering at 14-1 and 15-1 respectively were Eugene Melnyk's Marley Vale, who had set the pace in the Ashland, and Gary Tanaka's Dreams Gallore, fourth behind Silverbulletday in the Davona Dale, and a closing third in the Fantasy.

Confident handling

Before a record Oaks Day crowd of 101,034, Silverbulletday, with Stevens back aboard after missing the Ashland, took her place in the No. 5 post and broke alertly when the gate opened. Taken back slightly, Stevens was more than confident enough to let Marley Vale go for the early advantage. She was followed to the turn by Positive Gal and The Happy Hopper through an easy opening quarter in :23.44, with Silverbulletday kept wide and clear while in sixth, but just 6 1/2 lengths off the pace.

There was no change in the order after a half in :47.69, and there was just that second—that one second—where Silverbulletday's chances might have appeared to be compromised. The track—a tight, dried-out fast one after soaking rains earlier in the week—had played toward frontrunners on the rail earlier on the card, and Stevens kept his champion wide down the early backstretch run. However, that was one fleeting second, as Stevens let out just a notch on Silverbulletday and she inched her way up against the competition in a few strides. After six furlongs in a modest 1:12.29, Silverbulletday was sweeping toward the lead with Stevens still riding high up in the air on the Silver Deputy filly, to just a head off of Marley Vale. From there, Silverbulletday had left the others to fight for the scraps.

As has been her style, her turn move was lethal, and by the time she turned for home, she was 2 1/2 lengths clear and cruising. Marley Vale beat a hasty retreat and fellow closer Dreams Gallore had taken over second, but the outcome was never in doubt. After getting the mile in a leisurely 1:37.27, Silverbulletday cruised past the wire in 1:49.92. Dreams Gallore got the place, Sweeping Story the show after putting in an even run.

Steve Asmussen, trainer of Dreams Gallore, knew what he was getting into before the Oaks but was pleased to get second money.

"I wasn't under the illusion that Silverbulletday wasn't a champion," Asmussen said, "but as well as she (Dreams Gallore) was training, I wanted to run. She ran great—and we have no excuse. She put in her run and I was encouraged that she continued on to the wire. She's a nice filly, but next time we'll take her somewhere where she's (Silverbulletday) not.

The winner's circle had a certain kind of bravado, the kind a 1-9 shot winning can, and it had a reunion-like quality with the Pegram crew in tow. Perched on his shoulders was Pegram's grandson Gator, a year older and wiser from last year's Derby celebration.

Baffert still had the following day to look forward to and prepare for, but Pegram was ready to go. When asked if Baffert would get a good night's sleep, Pegram butted in, "Who said anything about sleep?" It was apparent he didn't have three Derby horses to saddle the next afternoon.

Above and beyond

Exiting the winner's circle, a fan yelled, "Hey, Baffert: You rock." This filly's on a serious roll and it's only April of her 3-year-old year. Now is the time to raise some serious questions about the filly who has won 10 of 11 starts and has little 3-year-old competition in sight. Where might she stack up against the great ones and will she face the boys somewhere down the line?

"I haven't been in the business long enough to be making those kind of comparisons," Baffert said. "I only have a small window to be judging things, and she's only been around for a short while. I have to commend Mike—he could have run this filly in the Kentucky Derby, but he stayed firm."

As for the strategy for the remainder of the year, Baffert had to wait until Derby Day, when Excellent Meeting ran a solid fifth after being next to last in the early going. The following day, Baffert said he would send Silverbulletday to Baltimore on May 12 and enter her in both the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2) against fillies on May 14 and in the Preakness (G1) the next day. That will leave some more guesswork for the Triple Crown's middle jewel.

BULLETINS: Baffert had another shot at history on Derby Day to become the first trainer since 1952 to saddle both the Oaks and Derby winner in the same weekend. Ben Jones turned the trick for Calumet Farm with Real Delight and Hill Gail 47 years ago...Despite the record crowd, the day's on-track handle of $10,339,112 fell just shy of last year's record handle of $10,359,724...Of the total mutuel pool of $2,359,391 for the Oaks, $1,715,697 was wagered on Silverbulletday, which help create a minus show pool of $52,535.