Handicapping: Weather, Track Conditions Key on Saturday

If it sounds like we're hemming and hawing our way through this week's stakes rundown, blame it on Mother Nature because Jan.18 will be a good day to await race-day track conditions and late scratches before finalizing wagering strategies and ticket structures.

In terms of the region-by-region forecast, this is what we're up against: There's a strong likelihood of snow and/or mixed precipitation in the Northeast, which will affect Aqueduct Racetrack, where the Toboggan Stakes (G3) for older sprinters is the first graded stakes of the season in New York; and Laurel Park, which has four stakes on tap. At Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, where six stakes are on the program including the Silverbulletday Stakes, Louisiana Stakes (G3) and Lecomte Stakes (G3), there's a 50-50 chance of scattered thunderstorms. Finally, to a lesser extent, some showers in South Florida Jan. 17 may render the turf something other than firm for the four Sunshine Millions races at Gulfstream Park. 

You're pretty much good to go weather-wise at Santa Anita Park, which puts on three California Cup events as well as the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf Sprint.

Toboggan (Aqu, race 8, 3:55 ET): In addition to wintry conditions handicappers must deal with layoffs as the two strongest contenders—American Anthem (2) and Mind Control (8)—return from absences of several months. Both are three-time graded stakes winners at the Tobbogan's seven furlongs.

Mind Control has been away since getting up to win the H. Allen Jerkens (G1) in a blanket finish, and won the Jerome Stakes and Bay Shore Stakes (G3) over this track earlier in 2019. 

American Anthem was bought by owner Don Tiger for $145,000 at the November Breeding Stock Sale at Keeneland and turned over to trainer Danny Gargan, who has done exceptionally well (34 percent wins over the past year) with new acquisitions. The way the conditions are written he gets a break in the weights at 118 pounds while Mind Control, Sunny Ridge (1) and Nicodemus (4) tote 124.

American Anthem is also in position to control the early pace and may be decent value as the second choice behind Mind Control.

Sunny Ridge won the two-turn Richard W. Small Stakes pretty handily first time back from a freshening and has some appeal on the cutback for Jason Servis.

A wet track would be a plus for Nicodemus, who was overmatched in the Cigar Mile Handicap (G1) when ninth in his first out in five months, but won a sloppy renewal of the Westchester Stakes (G3) in May.

A — 2

B — 1, 4, 8

Louisiana Stakes (FG, race 10, 4:21 CT): You can probably get by this leg of pick-whatevers with the two favorites, Silver Dust (2) and Blended Citizen (3), but off-going brings Captivating Moon (5) into the picture as well.

Silver Dust was in the exacta six of seven starts last year capped by a win in the West Virginia Governor's Stakes (G3) and a close second in the Lukas Classic Stakes (G3) in early fall. He fires fresh, and has been working bullets for his return to the Fair Grounds, where he took the 2019 Mineshaft Handicap (G3).

Blended Citizen has been sharp in both starts since turned over to trainer Brad Cox. The horse won the 2018 Peter Pan Stakes (G3) for prior trainer Doug O'Neill on a track containing moisture.

Captivating Moon's two dirt wins have both come in the slop including the Diliberto Memorial Stakes locally four weeks ago.

A — 2, 3

B — 5

Silverbulletday Stakes (FG, race 12, 5:23 CT): I've got check marks on five of the eight fillies in this qualifying-points race (10-4-2-1) for the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) May 1.

Finite (6) will be a deserving favorite off three straight wins in six-figure races, having annexed her maiden win in a $135,000 turf sprint at Kentucky Downs followed by wins in the Rags to Riches Stakes and Golden Rod Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs, the latter race on a sloppy track.

Portrait (7) is returning from a break since ducking in at the start and settling for third in the Pocahontas Stakes (G2) as the favorite, which took place less than three weeks after a 12-length maiden romp in a "wow" performance at Ellis Park.

Ursula (3), His Glory (4) and She Can't Sing (8) all caught slop most recently, but won big on fast footing right before that. As mentioned at the top, wait and see about the weather!

A — 6, 7

B — 3, 4, 8

Lecomte (FG, race 13, 5:55 CT): On a fast track I would be pretty confident with Scabbard (4), who was clearly second best in the Iroquois (G3) behind Dennis' Moment, but then spun his wheels finishing fourth in the TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) over a track that many horses struggled over—particularly 2-year-olds. 

Scabbard (formerly Noose for his first two starts) has never encountered a wet track, though, while a handful of others emerge from encouraging efforts in the slop, notably Finnick the Fierce (1), Mr. Monomoy (2), Excession (5), New Eagle (6), Silver State (9), Sycamore Run (13) and Lynn's Map (14). Owing to his poor draw, the latter may be scratched to await the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park.

Sycamore Run looks loose on the lead, after splashing to a front-running debut victory at six furlongs, and coming back with two snazzy works; the son of Street Sense is bred to stretch out.

This race offers qualifying points (10-4-2-1) to the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1) May 2.

A — 4, 13

B — 1, 2, 9

C — 5, 6

California Cup Oaks (SA, race 8, 4:07 PT): Almost a Factor (1), Wise Rachel (2), Warren's Showtime (5) and Warrior's Moon (12) have already won on turf at a mile, but in every case those wins came either in the second or third race back so perhaps one or more of them will fall through the cracks in this full field of sophomore fillies.

Been Studying Her (4) won a couple state-bred stakes on dirt at 2, and may handle the surface switch since her dam was a turf router.

A — 1, 5

B — 2, 4

C — 12