Handicapping: All Eyes on Pegasus, Gulfstream Park

With the exception of a six-horse renewal of the Palos Verdes Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park, all of the graded stakes action Jan. 25 takes place at Gulfstream Park, where a 12-race program includes nine stakes—six graded—capped by the $1 million Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Presented By Runhappy (G1T) and the $3 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational Presented By Runhappy (G1).

The six graded stakes comprise a Rainbow 6 that had a $3.2 million carryover going into Jan. 24, and offers a $5 million guarantee if there is a single winner Saturday. However, it makes good sense to save some bullets for Sunday's force-out sequence, and focus instead on Saturday's late pick five and/or pick four with respective guaranteed pools of $750,000 and $1 million. The Rainbow 6 starts in race 7 with the Fred W. Hooper Stakes (G3) and continues through the La Prevoyante Stakes (G3T), Inside Information Presented By Runhappy Matchmaker Series Stakes (G2), William L. McKnight Stakes (G3T) and the two Pegasus events.

Whether you fancy horizontal wagers or vertical wagers like exactas, trifectas and dime supers, here are some thoughts on the graded events. The forecast is for mostly clear skies and seasonal temperatures in the upper 70s, but be advised the turf received a good soaking Thursday so there should be considerable give in the ground.

Fred W. Hooper (GP, race 7, 2:31 ET): This daunting first leg of the Rainbow 6 is up for grabs and features several notable contenders that could be regarded as "bounce" candidates coming off peak performances. Among them are Rare Form (4), Seven Trumpets (6) and Epic Dreamer (11), who all figure to be out winging early in this one-turn mile out of the chute, although Seven Trumpets has shown the ability to sit just off the pace.

The best of the off-the-pace runners - Phat Man (5), Free Enterprise (8) and Gray Magician (10)—form our A team, while Zenden (2), Seven Trumpets and Tale of Silence (7) are the backups.

Gray Magician's terrific 2019 campaign encompassed six exacta finishes from 10 starts at eight tracks for earnings of nearly $800,000, but that may fall through the cracks to some extent after a flat fifth in the San Antonio Stakes (G2) first time back from a short break.

A — 5, 8, 10

B — 2, 6, 7

La Prevoyante (GP, race 8, 3:03 ET): The 10 fillies and mares in this three-turn race are a collective 0 for 11 at 1 1/2 miles, and Lady Paname (6) is the only one to have notched a graded stakes win in the United States.

Lady Paname has been sidelined since taking her first two U.S. starts in the the fall of 2018 for newly-minted four-time Eclipse Award winner Chad Brown, including the Long Island Stakes (G3T), but she has trained steadily for this and has handled rain-softened turf. Betting she's ready.

Get Explicit (10) is 0 for 11 in graded company but two of her best efforts have come at this distance, notably a close second in the Waya Stakes (G3T).

On a day when both Pegasus races will be run under Lasix-free conditions, it would be rather ironic if European invader Simply Beautiful (2) were to win this race with first-time Lasix; she is just 1 for 15 but classes up off a pair of group 3 placings under Ryan Moore, after which she concluded 2019 with off-the-board finishes on heavy going and on an all-weather surface.

The lightly-raced Mean Mary (4) spots experience making her stakes debut, but will have an easy time controlling the early tempo.

A — 6, 10

B — 2, 4

Inside Information (GP, race 9, 3:36 ET): A contested pace seems assured, and we're going to bet that Eclipse Award-winning riders Irad Ortiz Jr. and Javier Castellano can respectively secure good trips aboard multiple graded stakes winners Blamed (5) and Spiced Perfection (7). The former has been away nearly a year but is otherwise hard to knock with a 7-2-0 record from nine starts, while the latter has won four graded races from her last seven trips and was scratched from the La Canada Stakes (G3) January 11 to await this.

Nonna Madeline (6), A Bit of Both (10) and deep-closing Pink Sands (11) are the B-team for those inclined to spread. Longshot players may want to throw in Wildwood's Beauty (2), who has won or placed in all 10 of her dirt starts including two good-figure efforts at seven furlongs.

A — 5, 7

B — 6, 10, 11

C — 2

William L. McKnight (GP, race 10, 4:12 ET): Mike Maker has won this 12-furlong race for three straight years since it was positioned on the Pegasus Day undercard, and takes four shots at this edition with Apreciado (3), Carom (4), Cross Border (7) and Temple (10). Note that Cross Border is cross-entered for Sunday's John B. Connally Stakes (G3T) at Sam Houston Race Park, where is he the morning-line favorite.

Cross Border would be a big part of the early pace here, but in his absence the role of pacesetter could perhaps fall to American Tattoo (12), although he has never run on grass and has the look of an "unofficial" dirt-only entrant after taking an off-the-turf H. Allen Jerkens Stakes four weeks ago.

Despite his come-from-the-clouds style, Red Knight (1) will take some beating after closing out 2019 in fine form winning the 1 1/2-mile Point of Entry Stakes and finishing second in the Red Smith Stakes (G3T) to Pegasus Turf contender Sadler's Joy, a four-time graded stakes winner of $2.4 million.

Red Knight meets no such rival here and it's noteworthy he just missed off a freshening in the Dixiana Elkhorn Stakes (G2T) on yielding turf to begin his 2019 campaign.

Cross Border (if he goes), Pumpkin Rumble (8) and Temple are the backups, but budget-minded tickets may opt to stand alone with Red Knight.

A — 1

B — 7, 8, 10

Pegasus World Cup Turf (GP, race 11, 4:49 ET): This may be the place to cast a wide net since cases can be made for or against almost anyone.

We're keying on Sacred Life (11) and Magic Wand (12), and not worrying about their outside draws due to an ample run to the first turn, because of their past success overseas without Lasix on non-firm turf.

Sacred Life was bottled up turning for home and closed like a bullet when clear in the Seabiscuit Handicap (G2T) most recently, while the world-traveling mare Magic Wand banked nearly $3.5 million racing in six countries last year, beginning with a second in the inaugural running of this event.

The main backups are the hard-knocker Zulu Alpha (1), the aforementioned Sadler's Joy (4) and Mo Forza (10), who may get the early lead by default in his first try against older stakes horses.

Without Parole (3), a late-rallying third in the TVG Breeders' Cup Mile (G1T) first time over from Europe, is a group 1 winner without Lasix but is winless since June 2018 and wants firmer footing than he will get here.

The stone-cold closer Admission Office (7) is a potential price play who, although winless from five tries in graded stakes, wound up beaten just a half-length in four of them last year.

A — 11, 12

B — 1, 4, 10

C — 3, 7

Pegasus World Cup (GP, race 12, 5:34 ET): While the fourth running of the Pegasus obviously lost its star power with the scratches of Omaha Beach  and Spun to Run it is still a pretty decent betting race.

At the risk of over-simplifying things, it's hard to see past Tax (2), Higher Power (6) and Mucho Gusto (10) as bona fide contenders. 

Some knocks: Diamond Oops (3) received a perfect setup winning the six-furlong Mr. Prospector Stakes (G3) five weeks ago and has never ventured past one mile; Seeking the Soul (4) was second in a sloppy Pegasus last year but has been off form since taking the Stephen Foster Stakes (G2) on his favorite surface at Churchill Downs; War Story (7) was beaten a combined 44 lengths in this race's first two runnings; and potential pacesetter Bodexpress (12) is too much of a head case to trust, not to mention being in over his head.

Tax meets older for the first time but has won without Lasix and has notched both of his graded stakes wins at 1 1/8 miles; throw out his two races at 10 furlongs and he was admirably consistent through his sophomore season.

The break is key for Higher Power, and he will be tough to handle if he manages a clean getaway under Flavien Prat, who was aboard for a win in the $1 Million TVG Pacific Classic Stakes (G1), a performance with enough quality to potentially bury these.

Mucho Gusto has won three times at the grade 3 level from seven furlongs to 1 1/16 miles, but he has been tried and found wanting in four races at nine furlongs and beyond, twice at odds-on.

A — 6

B — 2, 10

Best of luck, and if you're Runhappy  and you know it, clap your hands.