Handicapping: Liftin Ponders Saturday's Derby Preps

Three-year-olds come to the forefront on the first Saturday in February. Nine of 12 stakes across the country are for sophomores, topped by a trio of grade 3s offering qualifying points (10-4-2-1) to the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1) May 2: the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita Park; the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park; and the Withers Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct Racetrack.

Santa Anita also hosts Saturday's two other graded races, the San Marcos Stakes (G2T) and San Pasqual Stakes (G2) for older horses, while Gulfstream's undercard includes four other 3-year-old stakes including the Swale Stakes (G3) and Forward Gal Stakes (G3).

At Oaklawn Park, trainer Brad Cox is loaded for bear with a couple of daughters of Into Mischief , the unbeaten 3-year-old filly Taraz in the Martha Washington; and Irish Mischief in the American Beauty. The latter race is linked with Aqueduct's Withers as part of the first "Cross Country Pick Five" of the year.

Weather forecasts look favorable everywhere except South Florida, where a chance for showers and thunderstorms could force Gulfstream's Sweetest Chant and Dania Beach off the grass.

Robert. B. Lewis (SA, race 6, 3:00 PT): Bob Baffert's duo of Thousand Words (2) and High Velocity (5) ran first and third in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) in early December and figure to take the bulk of the action against four others, two of which—Encoder (1) and Royal Act (4) —try dirt for the first time.

Thousand Words, a $1 million colt by Pioneerof the Nile, fought back gamely after being headed in the stretch of the Futurity by TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up Anneau d'Or, and looms odds-on here as a potential stand-alone to begin a pick three sequence that continues with the San Marcos and San Pasqual. Thousand Words is out of the Pomeroy mare Pomeroys Pistol, which is a sprint family if there ever was one, so down the road, it will be interesting to see how he handles distances beyond Saturday's mile and a sixteenth.

The backup strategy uses the turf-to-dirt runners since they are unknown commodities on the main track at this point.

A — 2

B — 1, 4

Holy Bull (GP, race 11, 5:04 ET): I'm inclined to use 3-5 morning line favorite Tiz the Law (3) only defensively in his seasonal debut for the Funny Cide gang of Sackatoga Stable and Barclay Tagg, because while he's clearly talented he was pretty rough around the edges at age 2.

The New York-bred colt by Constitution lugged in winning his debut, overcame a stumbling start to win the Champagne Stakes (G1) as much the best over Green Light Go (the morning-line favorite in the Swale) after that, and was then a tough-trip third in a sloppy Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) when hemmed in for six furlongs and in tight between rivals late. He has never been in a race with a half-mile faster than 46 seconds, but five of his six opponents have been, including prime threats Toledo (1) and Ete Indien (4).

The Chad Brown-trained Toledo couldn't catch Ete Indien in a prep for this, but the Juddmonte Farms homebred has improved with every start and projects for a cozy ground-saving trip as Ete Indien potentially battles early with Clear Destination (5) and Relentless Dancer (6).

A — 1

B — 3, 4

Withers (Aqu, race 8, 4:25 ET): Here, too, is a situation where I'm hesitant to go all-in on the favorites, Shotski (5) and Portos (8). 

While they both gained winning experience at the Withers' nine furlongs in December, it's not like they knocked anyone's socks off. Shotski was able to dictate a slow pace and held on in the Remsen Stakes (G2), while Portos faced no challenges against four overmatched maidens. In each case, they needed more than 39 seconds to cover the last three furlongs.

Monday Morning Qb (2) stretches out for the same Parx Racing-based connections that shipped in with Maximus Mischief  to take the 2018 Remsen off a couple of sprint races and stretches out with the prospect of controlling the pace.

Max Player (3) and Prince of Pharoahs (6) are a pair of lightly-raced and improving colts for Linda Rice, who is winning at nearly a 30-percent clip at the Big A winter meet.

A — 2, 5, 8

B — 3, 6

American Beauty (OP, race 8, 4:38 CT): This is a good matchup between the aforementioned Irish Mischief, who closed out a 10-race sophomore season beating older optional claiming/allowance sprinters with her fastest figure to date; and Amy's Challenge, who makes her first start since a third in the Humana Distaff Stakes (G1) against millionaires Mia Mischief, Marley's Freedom and Spiced Perfection, all of whom won stakes next out.

Amy's Challenge is perfect from three sprint starts at Oaklawn and two of those wins came off layoffs, notably a blowout score in this race last winter.

The backup at a price is Special Relativity (5) for Robertino Diodoro, who is off to a fast start at the meet. Her second-place finish last week in the one-mile Pippin was her first outing in two months and her first on dirt since a third in the Ketel One Ballerina Stakes (G1), and she may deliver an enhanced late kick on the cutback.

A — 3, 8

B — 5