Derby Trail: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down

Khozan made quite an impression in his career debut at Gulfstream Park. (Photo by Leslie Martin/Gulfstream Park)
A capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose Derby chances are not quite as strong as they were a week or two ago. 
Heating Up

1. Ocean Knight

Eclipse Sportswire

I loved seeing Ocean Knight need to fight to win the Sam F. Davis Stakes. He showed a flash of elite talent in his debut — a 4 ¼-length runaway on Dec. 13 at Aqueduct at six furlongs — and passed another test on a sometimes-tricky Tampa Bay Downs main track when stretching out to 1 1/16 miles. A colt by two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, who won the Preakness Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2007 and could run all day, Ocean Knight should continue to improve as the races get longer. With only two races under his saddle, both of which earned triple-digit Equibase Speed Figures, the sky is the limit for Ocean Knight. Purchased for $320,000 as a two-year-old in training by Stonestreet Stables, which raced Curlin, Ocean Knight is in the capable hands of Kiaran McLaughlin, who won the 2006 Belmont Stakes with Jazil and also trained that year’s Horse of the Year Invasor. Ocean Knight needs points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, so expect to see him back in action in an upcoming key points race.

2. Khozan

Leslie Martin/Gulfstream Park

There was much anticipation for the debut of this Distorted Humor colt, who sold for $1-million at the 2014 Fasig-Tipton Florida sale of selected two-year-olds in training. A half-brother (same dam [mother], different sire [father]) to three-time champion Royal Delta and Grade 1 winner Crown Queen, Khozan did not disappoint in his first career start. Khozan, who bears a strong physical resemblance to Royal Delta while he is galloping, stalked the pace and blew away the competition on Jan. 24 at Gulfstream Park in a seven-furlong maiden special weight race. Normally, I try to keep this list to stakes-tested horses, but this colt posted a 112 Equibase Speed Figure for his victory, which puts him a tick better than the highest figure recorded by a three-year-old in a stakes race in 2015, which was a 111 posted by Upstart when winning the Holy Bull. With elite talent and a pedigree to match, Khozan surged onto many a Kentucky Derby Top 10 list with that debut performance.

3. Upstart

Eclipse Sportswire

Upstart would be higher here if not for the fact that I already held him in high regard. He was firmly entrenched in my Derby Top 10 to begin with, so while his Holy Bull Stakes was the most impressive performance of the last two weeks in my eyes, he did not have as far to rise. The fact that he earned a new career-best Equibase Speed Figure of 111 for the Holy Bull in his season debut was especially promising. Upstart is right there with the elite of the 3-year-old division and has every right to continue to progress as he makes his way down the Derby path.

Honorable Mentions:  The Great War

Coady Photography
and Lord Nelson 

Ordinarily, both of these horses would have made the cut but there were so many breakout performances that they just missed. I thought they both were worthy of a mention. The Great War was incredibly impressive in a 7 ¼-length romp in the 96Rock Stakes at Turfway Park and looks like a probable favorite for the Grade 2 Spiral Stakes later this year. I do worry with Keeneland’s return to dirt if the Spiral won’t be flooded with synthetic specialists with only one prep race to target. Could be a tough field.
Lord Nelson is a very nice colt, and he proved it Sunday when he defeated my top Derby horse Texas Red fair and square in the San Vicente. He earned a new career-top Equibase Speed Figure of 102 for the win, but all three of his victories have come in sprints and he’s winless in two starts in two-turn races.

Cooling Off

1. Calculator

BENOIT Photo

Multiple Grade 1-placed at two, Calculator’s season debut in the Sham Stakes was a thing of beauty … a powerhouse performance worthy of every accolade laid upon it. That’s what makes the undisclosed injury reported this week by trainer Peter Miller so disappointing. Calculator will be sideline for six weeks and obviously miss the Triple Crown races. Hopefully, we will see the same freakish ability when he returns in the fall or next winter.

2. Leave the Light On

Eclipse Sportswire

News came this week that an ankle injury sustained during a routine workout will require surgery and force Leave the Light On to miss a couple of months of action, including the Triple Crown races. The injury reportedly is not career-threatening, so hopefully we will see the 2014 Remsen Stakes victor back in action this summer with a shot at some of the big, post-Triple Crown 3-year-old races.

3. Barbados 

Eclipse Sportswire

The Grade 3 Hutcheson Stakes winner had put together an impressive three-race winning streak since switching from turf to dirt, and it would have been interesting to see how far he could have carried his blazing speed on the Kentucky Derby trail. Unfortunately, a left knee injury sent Barbados to the sidelines. The injury is not expected to be career-threatening and Barbados reportedly should be able to return to training in about three months. We look forward to seeing this fantastic athlete back in action.

CURRY'S DERBY TOP 10

1. Texas Red 2. American Pharoah 3. Upstart 4. Ocho Ocho Ocho 5. El Kabeir 6. Ocean Knight 7. Dortmund 8. Khozan 9. The Great War 10. Far Right

Racing Terms
Allowance race – A race for which the racing secretary drafts certain conditions to determine weights to be carried based on the horse’s age, sex and/or past performance.
Also-eligible – A horse officially entered for a race, but not permitted to start unless the field is reduced by scratches below a specified number.
Apprentice – A rider who has not ridden a certain number of winners within a specified period of time. Also known as a “bug,” from the asterisk used to denote the weight allowance such riders receive.
Blinkers – A cup-shaped device that limits a horse’s vision. Blinkers, often used to try to improve a horse’s focus, come in a variety of sizes and shapes to allow as little or as much vision as the trainer feels is necessary.
Bullet – The fastest workout of the day at a track at a particular distance.
Claiming race – A race in which each horse entered is eligible to be purchased at a set price.
Closer – A horse that runs best in the latter part of the race, coming from off the pace.
Connections – Persons identified with a horse, such as owner, trainer, jockey and stable employees.
Disqualification – Change in order of finish by stewards for an infraction of the rules.
Dam – The mother of a horse.
Entry – Two or more horses with common ownership that are paired as a single betting unit in one race.
Front-runner – A horse whose running style is to attempt to get on or near the lead at the start of the race and to continue there as long as possible.
Furlong – An eighth of a mile.
Graded race – A non-restricted race with added money or guaranteed purse value of $100,000 or more which has been run at least twice under similar conditions and on the same surface and has been assigned graded status for the year contested by the American Graded Stakes Committee.
Handicap – This race type refers to a race where the weights are assigned by the track’s racing secretary or handicapper based upon past performances.
Length – A measurement approximating the length of a horse, used to denote distance between horses in a race.
Off track – A track that has a wet surface and isn’t labeled as “fast”.
Pacesetter – The horse that is running in front (on the lead).
Past performances – A horse’s racing record, earnings, bloodlines and other data, presented in composite form.
Prep – A workout (or race) used to prepare a horse for a future engagement.
Post Parade – Horses going from paddock to starting gate past the stands. The post parade provides spectators with a chance to get a final look at the horse before the race.
Post Position – Position of stall in starting gate from which a horse begins a race.
Rabbit – A speed horse running as an entry with another, usually a come-from-behind horse. The rabbit is expected to set a fast pace to help the chances of its stablemate.
Rank – A horse that refuses to settle under a jockey’s handling in a race, running in a headstrong manner without respect to pace.
Scratch – To be taken out of a race before it starts.
Silks – Jacket and cap worn by jockeys.
Sire – Father of a foal.
Stakes – A race for which the owner usually must pay a fee to run a horse. The fees can be for nominating, maintaining eligibility, entering and starting, to which the track adds more money to make up the total purse. Some stakes races are by invitation and require no payment or fee.