Handicapping: Litfin Tackles Fair Grounds Action

The first 85-point qualifying races (50-20-10-5) for the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1) and the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) will be run at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots Feb. 15.

In the Rachel Alexandra Presented By Fasig-Tipton (G2), British Idiom makes her first start since winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) and cementing an Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old filly. 

Meanwhile, the Risen Star Presented By Lamarque Ford (G2) was split into two divisions, with the most notable name among the 23 entrants being Anneau d'Or, who makes his seasonal bow after being narrowly beaten in the TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) and Los Alamitos Futurity (G2).

Those races highlight a six-stakes card, and they are the last three legs of a graded stakes pick five that begins with the Mineshaft (G3) and Fair Grounds (G3T) stakes.

Mineshaft (FG, race 9, 4:01 CT): Silver Dust (4) was a decisive winner of this race a year ago and arrives for this in top form, having won or placed in all five subsequent starts on fast tracks, capped by a handy score in the Louisiana Stakes (G3) over this surface. He typically puts himself in easy striking range, and there's no reason to think he won't fire again.

One of the few horses who managed to beat Silver Dust over the last 12 months is Mocito Rojo (1), who prevailed by a neck when they clashed in the Lukas Classic (G3). 

We'll also back up with Sleepy Eyes Todd (2) and Pirate's Punch (11). The former was a game second in the 2019 Oklahoma Derby (G3) while beating the likes of Mucho Gusto. That was the only defeat for Sleepy Eyes Todd in four dirt starts wearing blinkers, and his latest outing in the 12-furlong John B. Connally Turf Cup (G3T) is an easy toss. Pirate's Punch could bounce as he moves from the rail to the far outside off a big-figure win first time back from a freshening, but obviously took to the local surface nicely and might be this good now.

Hofburg (6) has a big reputation but has run just once in the past 16 months. He is included defensively.

A — 4

B — 1, 2, 11

C — 6

Fair Grounds (FG, race 10, 4:32 CT): Another legitimate favorite kicks off a $400,000 guaranteed pick four, as Synchrony (2) looks for his third consecutive victory in this event. He got the job done last year despite some traffic and a wide trip and has run exclusively in grade 1 and grade 2 spots since then, most recently he was off the board when in traffic at the five-sixteenths pole and boxed in late behind leaders in the City Of Hope Mile (G2T) back in October. Not to worry, though, because he won the 2018 Fair Grounds first time out since May of the previous year.

The lone backup is Dontblametherocket (5), who has won all three of his starts since claimed by Norm Casse and beat five of these by open lengths in the Jan. 18 Colonel E.R. Bradley to run his record over the local course to 5-2-0 from eight starts.

A — 2

B — 5

Rachel Alexandra (FG, race 11, 5:05 CT): British Idiom (6) didn't bust any stopwatches in the Juvenile Fillies but gamely persevered over a demanding surface to wear down Donna Veloce, with four-time graded winner Bast checking in third.

British Idiom's trainer, Brad Cox, used the 2018 Rachel Alexandra as a launching pad for Monomoy Girl's championship sophomore campaign, and the favorite is expected to fire first time back.

I'm forsaking second choice Finite, who was fully stretched to beat the unheralded fillies Ursula and Tempers Rising in the Silverbulletday.

The B-team consists of the Ken McPeek-trained duo of Swiss Skydiver (3) and Impeccable Style (4), who have been training in tandem for their initial two-turn attempts. The former put in an eye-catching move five wide around the turn and was floated out in deep stretch of the seven-furlong Gasparilla most recently, while the latter showed promise in a second-out maiden win when last seen in early fall.

A — 6

B — 3, 4

Risen Star first division (FG, race 12, 5:38 CT): The lengthening of this race to nine furlongs figures as a plus for lukewarm morning-line choice Enforceable (8), who was a maiden winner at the trip last summer and comes off a win against four of these in the Lecomte (G3).

Enforceable benefited from a demanding early tempo in the Lecomte, receiving a Closer Favorability Rating (CFR) of 96 out of a possible 100 from The Plod Boys at RacingFlow.com, as did runner-up Silver State (2), who is the more lightly raced of the two and eligible to improve.

Mr. Monomoy (3) was close to the leaders throughout in the Lecomte, and the half brother to the aforementioned Monomoy Girl held on gamely late inside.

The B-team consists of Scabbard (11), who was bottled up turning for home as the favorite in the Lecomte off an 11-week layoff; and Blackberry Wine (7) and Digital (1), who were one-two in an allowance on the Lecomte undercard that actually went two ticks faster than the stake. 

A — 2, 8, 9

B — 1, 7, 11

Risen Star second division (FG, race 13, 6:12 CT): Anneau d'Or (8) had three lengths on the third finisher in the Juvenile, and he was five lengths clear for second in the Los Al Futurity to the unbeaten Thousand Words, losing both those races in tight finishes. He returns off a sharp slate of workouts with blinkers added, and the fact that trainer Blaine Wright didn't keep him home at Golden Gate Fields for the El Camino Real Derby—a win-and-you're-in for the Preakness Stakes (G1)—speaks to the confidence he has in this $480,000 colt by Medaglia d'Oro .

The backups are Major Fed (7), Lynn's Map (9) and Mailman Money (11).

Major Fed and Mailman Money improved significantly when stretched out for their second starts, while Lynn's Map is given a chance to rebound from a disappointing try in the Smarty Jones over a sealed muddy track at Oaklawn Park, having won nicely on this track before that.

A — 8

B — 7, 9, 11