Bram’s Take: Back to Cali or a Believer?

Photos of California Chrome and Shared Belief by Eclipse Sportswire
Going back to Cali … Cali … Cali … Cali … Actually, I don't think so.
I love a good headline: Rome v. Chrome. It was sexy and it sold. But in the end, it was the true art of misdirection.
If I wasn’t so technologically impaired, I'd go back and check to see if I actually picked Bayern to beat both Shared Belief and California Chrome at their showdown in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (because if memory serves, I did!) but even if I didn't, you’ll just have to trust that my gut told me that neither was the right choice.
2014 BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC

Courtesy of Breeders' Cup
I knew Bayern would represent the heartbreaker, and I cashed in on everyone’s else false hope. The end result made me feel like Apollo Robbins.
Robbins is featured in a must-see Ted Talk entitled “The Art of Misdirection.” He is the self-professed world's greatest pickpocket, and after his 8:47 segment in front of a live audience, it would be hard to argue. I don’t want to give away the major trick he pulls off - but it would make Chris Angel blush and it’s worth a viewing if you find yourself with a little less than nine minutes of spare time.
In short, the lesson learned from Robbins is that misdirection doesn’t happen behind one’s back, but often the answer is right in front of you the whole time. If you understand how the brain works, you’ll realize that it easier to fool your mark by merely directing their attention elsewhere. This was in essence the result of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Bayern wasn’t a winner of two Triple Crown races and Bayern also wasn’t the undefeated rocket from sports personality Jim Rome’s barn. Those other two horses demanded enough attention for the marketing crew of the racing industry and, of course, in turn focused on the race as a sprint to the wire between two great champions. Reality was, Bayern’s ability was right there for the world to see, only most people didn’t bother to look.
Now, the result of the race depends on your point of view. For someone like me, who is trying to win money, this was the perfect storm. Bayern figured to get good odds in this race because the public wasn’t looking in his direction, mainly out of hope that they would pick the right side in this so-called, two-horse showdown. But if you were among the throngs who hoped they’d be able to say, “I told you so,” with either Rome or Chrome, this result may have come off as a major disappointment because, in the end, no one from either camp was right. Bayern was the horse who got in the way of making a point.
So here’s the rematch, and this time Bayern isn’t anywhere to be had. Upon review of the field for the San Antonio, I’m not sure there is anyone who replaces him. So round two appears to give us the true showdown, Rome v. Chrome with no outlier ready to steal the thunder.
All that said, it is worth thanking both camps for letting this happen one more time. Truth is, the connections for California Chrome or Shared Belief could have called 2014 a career, so the fact that they didn’t is commendable.
Now to the race, and considering I've already suggested I’m going either Shared Belief or Cali Chrome here, let’s leave that decision for last. Here’s how the rest of the field shapes up.
Hoppertunity: He's lightly raced with only 8 races in his career. His speed ratings are right there, and he is 3-for-4 winning with Martin Garcia on him. He could be Bayern right? Wrong. This dates back, but check out his run at the Santa Anita Derby last April. He did not stay too far off the pace, seemingly knowing he couldn't command a big enough stretch run to win. Turns out, he didn't have enough anyway and finished a distant second. Here’s a really, really good horse who, assuming a form run by Shared Belief or California Chrome, will be left out of the winner’s circle in the end of this one, too.
HOPPERTUNITY

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Tonito M.: If the pace is really, really slow, I think he has a shot to win, but clearly his top-end times aren't good enough for the class of this field. Now, if the pace is really, really off, I'd be more inclined to think Hoppertunity steals this before he does. So, I'm guessing an exotic placement seems reasonable, but no more.
You Know I Know: You know that I know that you know that I know I won’t be betting on You Know I Know. He hasn't won since August 2013 in a $62,500 optional claiming race. His best finish in a stakes race is third. Now he has raced seven times since that 2013 win and that suggests a lot about his form, so I’m not taking a shot unless someone on the rail tells me otherwise.
Imperative: This feels like a big-time horse whose best days are behind him. If he summons up a run like he did in the Charles Town Classic back in April, he could win. Since that time though, he’s been a complete non-factor. Now, they have a jockey on him that I wouldn’t trust in a spot like this. You cannot say he has no chance, but he’d be a stunner if he found his top form here.
Clubhouse Ride: Read above blurb about Imperative. I don't feel like repeating myself.
Bronzo: I'll admit I have a complete predisposition of untrustworthiness when it comes to horses who come over from places like South America to be part of major stakes races here. Gary Stevens being on this gelding gives me hope. Stevens having ridden him in his most recent start gives me more hope. But his two races at Santa Anita haven’t exactly suggested he’s in line to make a stretch run here. I have a funny feeling he might be sneaking up for a show spot, but my predisposition is stopping me from suggesting for even a second he is going to win.
Alfa Bird: So he has only raced five times, all at maiden or low allowance levels. And so I’m to believe, based on his last two races (impressive in terms of the pull-away factor), that he upsets the best two horses of 2014. Not a chance. Onem he’s front-runner. Good luck with that when Chrome and Shared Belief are experts at picking their spots to take control of a race. This is one of those “Welcome to the real world, pal” moments. He may have a huge upside in the game, but I can’t believe that now is the time to shock everyone.
And now to the main event, we think …
California Chrome: No one is happier that Bayern isn’t in this race then Chrome, who actually lost to him twice last year in the Pennsylvania Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic. What’s more important is how Chrome has fared since falling short of history and his flop in the PA Derby. In all, it appears that Chrome has found a way to peak once again. His performance in the Breeder's Cup Classic was strong coming from the 13 post to a near-miss third-place finish. Next time out, he posted the best Equibase Speed Figure of his career, if you can believe that in a win on the grass at Del Mar. Granted, he was a heavy favorite there. Here’s my huge concern though,  why did he run that last race on turf? Was this a case of easy pickins? He also isn't blowing fields away anymore. What this suggests to me is Chrome may do well moving forward on a softer surface, that his best runs on main tracks may be behind him. That doesn’t suggest he can’t win and, being that this field feels like truly more of a two-man race than the one billed last fall, I’d say he can win. But there is a red flag.
Shared Belief: Distance is of zero issue for this horse. The fact that Mike Smith could hit the button at the exact right time to win his last race at seven furlongs tells me the horse remains as game as ever. And, I’m inclined to believe that he’s more comfortable in general at longer distances where the timing remains paramount but not nearly as critical. The split times in the last race were blazing, another sign pointing up. Shared Belief has had one bad race. Or, you might say he’s had one rough trip. The fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic included rough moments and being steadied twice. No horse wins under those conditions. These conditions don’t figure to present those challenges.
Of the two main contenders, it feels a little crazy to say this, but recent past performances say you should trust Rome over Chrome. So, I’m not going back to Cali. I’m going with Shared Belief in what I hope for the sake of living up to the hype is a great stretch duel between he and the 2014 Derby champ.
The Bet — Trifecta: Shared Belief over Hoppertunity, Tonito M., Bronzo, California Chrome and Alfa Bird.
$500,000 San Antonio Invitational Stakes
Race 8, Saturday, Santa Anita, Post Time 7:00 PM E.T.
1 1/8 miles, dirt, 4-year-olds and older

PP

Horse

Jockey

Weight

Trainer

1

Hoppertunity 

Martin Garcia

123

Bob Baffert

2

Tonito M. 

Rafael Bejarano

120

Jerry Hollendorfer

3

You Know I Know

Drayden Van Dyke

118

John Sadler

4

Imperative 

Flavien Prat

120

George Papaprodromou

5

Shared Belief 

Mike Smith

123

Jerry Hollendorfer

6

Clubhouse Ride 

Aaron Gryder

120

Craig Lewis

7

Bronzo (CHI)

Gary Stevens           

120

Neil Drysdale

8

California Chrome 

Victor Espinoza

123

Art Sherman

9

Alfa Bird 

Tyler Baze

118

Victor Garcia

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