Handicapping: Buena Vista Tops Stakes Offerings

There's a palpable lull in stakes offerings Feb. 22 with no major 3-year-old races on the schedule. The marquee event is the $200,000 Buena Vista Stakes (G2T) for older fillies and mares at Santa Anita Park. Weather could affect that race, as there is an 80% chance of rain Saturday in Arcadia, Calif., according to the National Weather Service.

The second-richest event on the calendar is the Downthedustyroad Breeders' at Oaklawn Park, a $125,000 sprint for Arkansas-bred fillies and mares.

Some showers are also in the forecast at Gulfstream Park, which cards a couple of six-furlong stakes: the World of Trouble Stakes (G3) for older males, formerly run as the Gulfstream Park Sprint; and the Any Limit Stakes for sophomore fillies.

Let's go spanning three time zones for some action.

Buena Vista (SA, race 5, 2:29 PT): This one-mile race is the first leg of a late pick five, and many will be tempted to stand alone with Jolie Olimpica (1), a Brazilian import who impressed in her United States debut six weeks ago taking the 5 1/2-furlong Las Cienegas Stakes (G3T) to remain unbeaten through four starts. There's always the possibility of a regression second time back, though, especially when stretching out, and she faced only four opponents in the Las Cienegas and breaks inside of 11 rivals this time.

Lady Prancealot (8) got through inside and outkicked Mucho Unusual (4) to win the 1 1/4-mile American Oaks (G1T) in their final starts at age 3. The latter had some early trouble that day and appears better suited to the cutback in distance.

Carressa (2) and Super Patriot (9), the one-two finishers in the Megahertz  Stakes (G3T) last month, are backups, with the caveat that neither has experience with turf rated anything other than firm.

A — 1, 4

B — 2, 8, 9

Downthedustyroad (OP, race 9, 5:09 CT): No major knocks on the first two morning-line choices, Bye Bye J (9) and Georgia's Reward (3).

Bye Bye J has compiled a solid 4-1-0 record from six starts on fast tracks, the lone misfire chasing champion Covfefe's six-furlong track record (1:07.70) when last seen in the Adena Springs Ms. Preakness Stakes (G3) nine months ago. She returns with a trainer change to Steve Asmussen and took the Rainbow Miss over this surface last winter.

Georgia's Reward won the 2018 Rainbow Miss and also ran third last winter in the Downthedustyroad off a layoff of better than four months. This time around, she was given a prep against open company four weeks ago behind What a Fox, a hard knocker who has won five of her last six.

Also giving futile chase to What a Fox that day was Dutch Treat (4), who steadied at the start and raced wide in her seasonal debut. She has a slew of better races on her page, notably a second in the 2018 Rainbow Miss.

Blushing Delta (2) races first time after an $8,000 claim by leading trainer Robertino Diodoro, when she steadied approaching the stretch and settled for second as the 6-5 favorite. The 8-year-old mare is not outgunned on figures.

A — 3, 9

B — 2, 4

World of Trouble (GP, race 9, 4:04 ET): Jason Servis sends out clear favorite Lasting Legacy (2) as well as new acquisition Admiral Lynch (4), who was purchased at Fasig-Tipton after a good-figure win over optional claimers at Hollywood Casino at Penn National Race Course in his final start of 2019.

Lasting Legacy won three in a row at Monmouth Park last June through September and returned from a freshening with a rallying runner-up finish in a fast-paced edition of the Mr. Prospector Stakes (G3) here two months ago, notching his third straight triple-digit figure in the process. The cutback from seven furlongs should only help, and he looms a stand-alone for budget-minded plays in horizontal exotics.

Epic Dreamer (1) and Yorkton (8) bookend the field and offer some intrigue as potential alternatives at a price.

Epic Dreamer toyed with optional claimers off a distance turnback to six furlongs early at the meet and cuts back again after battling through a blazing early pace in the one-mile Fred Hooper Stakes (G3). Besides that big win two back, his only other sprint was a second to subsequent dual graded stakes winner Vekoma in his debut as a 2-year-old.

Yorktown tops the lineup with over $500,000 in the bank, most of it earned on Woodbine's synthetic surface where he has won multiple stakes including the last two runnings of the Bold Venture Stakes (G3) in front-running fashion. He's been off the board in two prior dirt races, but it's noteworthy he never made the lead in either one and that's where he does his best work.

A —  2

B — 1, 4, 8

Any Limit (GP, race 11, 5:04 ET): Sound Machine (2) and Frank's Rockette (5), two daughters of Into Mischief , will vie for favoritism.

Sound Machine, a $500,000 yearling buy, has turned in three sharp workouts since demolishing her rivals in the Glitter Woman seven weeks ago for red-hot trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.

Frank's Rockette won her debut at Churchill Downs last summer by almost nine lengths and then ran second as the favorite in the Adirondack Stakes (G2), Spinaway Stakes (G1) and Frizette Stakes (G1) before being put away. She returns for Bill Mott off an encouraging series of workouts at Payson Park.

My one idea for a potential upsetter is Belladonnia (8), who ran well in three short sprints last summer at Gulfstream, climaxed by a blowout maiden win. She had run second twice prior to that, finishing in front of the good runner Ceci Valentina, who has since won two stakes including the $200,000 Susan's Girl Division of the Florida Stallion Series. 

Belladonnia broke sharply in all three of her starts and is entitled to improve off the figures she recorded as an early-season juvenile.

A — 2, 5

B — 8