Saudi Cup Could Change How Sires Are Ranked

Five North American-based stallions have a chance Feb. 29 to obtain a $10 million lead by progeny earnings on the BloodHorse's general leading sires list a mere two months into the year.

This largesse comes via the inaugural $20 million Saudi Cup, the marquee event on a race card at King Abdulaziz Racetrack in Riyadh that is offering four other races with purses of $1 million or more. The Saudi Cup alone, however, will pay $10 million to the winner—more than half the total earnings acquired by the progeny of leading North American sire Into Mischief  in 2019.

If the winner of the Saudi Cup is by a U.S. sire and goes on to win the $12 million Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline (G1), then the leading sire title is clinched for the year. Even a second in the Dubai World Cup would make it difficult for trailing sires to close the earnings gap.

A similar scenario played out in 2017 when The Stronach Group introduced the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (G1) with an initial purse of $12 million, of which $7 million went to the winner, Arrogate . Juddmonte Farms' 4-year-old son of Unbridled's Song went on to win the Dubai World Cup and put his sire atop the standings with $13,817,323 in progeny earnings by April 1. 

Multiple grade 1 winner and eventual Horse of the Year Gun Runner  made a valiant attempt to close the earnings gap for his sire Candy Ride  with a second in the Dubai World Cup and victories in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Whitney Stakes (G1), Woodward Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1), and Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), but it wasn't enough. Candy Ride ended 2017 as the runner-up on the leading sires list with $15,432,953 in progeny earnings to Unbridled's Song's $18,532,448.

Arrogate exited the Dubai World Cup with $13 million in purses for the year. If the same horse wins the Saudi Cup and Dubai World Cup, it would earn a total of $17.2 million, which exceeds the annual progeny earnings for the leading North American sires for five of the last 20 years.

The U.S.-bred runners who could give their sires a quick pass to the leading sire title include Mucho Gusto, by Adena Springs Kentucky's Mucho Macho Man ; Midnight Bisou, by Hill 'n' Dale Farms' Midnight Lute ; McKinzie, by Darley's Street Sense ; Tacitus, by Gainesway's Tapit ; and Gift Box, by Lane's End's Twirling Candy .

Mucho Gusto is already a millionaire this year after taking the Jan. 25 Pegasus World Cup Presented by Runhappy, which was run with a lower purse of $3 million. The victory added more than $1.66 million to Mucho Gusto's earnings and accounts for almost 85% of Mucho Macho Man's progeny earnings this year.

The influence of big-money races on sires standings is not a recent phenomenon.

A victory by Wild Again in the inaugural Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) in 1984 helped Icecapade climb from fourth to second on the BloodHorse's general leading sires list. A third-place finish in this race by Slew o' Gold allowed Seattle Slew to keep a comfortable margin as the leading sire.

The Dubai World Cup did not affect the leading sires standings until its third running in 1998, which Silver Charm won. A $4 million race at the time with $2.4 million going to the winner, Silver Charm's victory moved Silver Buck from 18th on the leaders' list to the top spot with $3,077,482 in progeny earnings the week following the race.

Silver Charm finished second later in the year in the Breeders' Cup Classic and collected another $1.024 million in purses, but it wasn't enough to keep Silver Buck on top. Instead, the year's leading sire was Deputy Minister, whose son Awesome Again collected just over $2.66 million in purses for winning the Breeders' Cup Classic. Deputy Minister ended the year with $8,567,723 in progeny earnings. Storm Cat finished in second that year with more than $6.8 million in earnings, and Silver Buck was third with more than $6.2 million. Without the Dubai World Cup prize money, Silver Buck would not have been among the top 70 leading sires that year.

Several stallion owners and managers agreed the Saudi Cup is a game changer in terms of continuing to rank sires by earnings.

"It is great for business that the Saudi Cup exists," said John Sikura, the president of Hill 'n' Dale Farms. "This Super Bowl, it creates value for owners and makes horses stay in training longer. How it affects our progeny earnings and sire standings is a valid question. I don't have the answer, but I think you have to rework it."

Ned Toffey, the general manager for Spendthrift Farm, which stands Into Mischief, said in today's world of advanced analytics, he would expect a better way exists rather than ranking by earnings.

"Given these substantial purses, one race probably shouldn't overly skew these standings one way or the other. A $20 million purse is a big skew," Toffey said. "The challenge is standardization. Compare us to baseball where people are essentially hitting against the same pitchers and playing the same teams, then you're comparing like to like. Stallions are so different, and book size can be a factor, too, because a stallion may cover significantly more mares one year than another."

Bill Farish with Lane's End also agreed that the earnings from only a few races are distorting rankings.

Via text from Saudi Arabia, Farish suggested a system that enhances a ranking by earnings with a weighted scale that gives the most importance to grade 1 stakes and then declining weight to grade 2 and grade 3 stakes.

Whether it is the Saudi Cup, Dubai World Cup, or simply figuring out the most equitable way to account for relatively large purses paid out regularly in racing jurisdictions like Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore, addressing the influence of money on sires standings has reached its tipping point, according to Sikura.

"You have to be respectful of countries putting up these kinds of purses, but it's right to ask how we maintain the integrity of our lists," Sikura said. "It was on the horizon to a degree, but the Saudi Cup brings it to the forefront."