Tip of the Week: Shaking off the Rust

Joann's Wildcat had a layoff of more than 14 months but made her return on Feb. 4 a winning one. (Photo by Coglinese Photos)
One of the riskier handicapping angles involves wagering on horses returning from a long layoff.
Usually, these type of horses need a race or two – or more – to return to top form. Yet every now then, a horse comes around that offers an inviting mix of talent and wagering value that’s hard to ignore.
Joann’s Wildcat, who ran in the ninth race at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 4, fit that mold.
She came into that start having not raced since Nov. 23, 2013, a lengthy hiatus of more than 14 months – which fans of certain cable TV shows can no doubt relate to.
Clearly something happened to Joann’s Wildcat, yet durability was never her middle name. She did not debut until July of her 3-year-old season (in 2013) when she captured a maiden special weight race at Gulfstream. She next raced more than six weeks later, on Aug. 23, and finished third in an allowance race, again at Gulfstream. Finally, she took three months off and returned on Nov. 23 and romped to a 6 ¼-length allowance win at Gulfstream.
From those results, trainer Larry Pilotti had certainly treated Joann’s Wildcat with kid gloves and the filly showed that she could run well when fresh.
Fresh, however, was an understatement compared to the gap of 438 day she was attempting to overcome on Feb. 4. 
Yet there were positive signs. For Joann’s Wildcat’s comeback start, Pilotti did not enter her in a claiming race, which could have been perceived as a sign of a lingering problem that diminished her worth as a racer. She was entered in an allowance race.
She had also been training sharply. Her last five workouts, all at five furlongs, were in fast time for Gulfstream: 1:00.80, 1:00.40, 1:00.20, :59.20 and 1:00.60. Each was among the seven fastest workouts at the distance on those days.
Joann’s Wildcat also drew the rail, which loomed an asset for a filly that has early speed and figured to bust out of the starting gate like a rocket off the layoff.
The icing on the cake could be found on the toteboard. Joann’s Wildcat was sent off at 10.40-to-1, a big departure from her odds in her previous three starts. She had never been higher than 3.20-to-1 in any of them.
Had Joann’s Wildcat been 3-to-1 in the Feb. 4 race, she would not have been as appealing. A handicapper can easily find other 3-to-1 shots with less risk attached to them than a horse coming off a 438-day layoff. Yet at 10-to-1, gambling that Joann’s Wildcat was ready for a sharp effort made some sense.
It later turned out to be a stroke of genius when she rushed out to the lead and never looked back, winning by 1 ½ lengths and returning $22.80.
What’s next for Joann’s Wildcat? Who knows? Though it seems safe to say that the New York Racing Association’s new 14-day rule probably will not come into play.
THE LESSON: Do not dismiss a horse simply because of a lengthy layoff. If there are positive signs and good value on the toteboard, it might be worthwhile to tag along while it shakes off the rust.