Handicapping: Post Positions Tip Scales at Gulfstream

All nine graded stakes in the U.S. this leap-year Saturday will be run at Gulfstream Park, climaxed by the Feb. 29 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (G2) and Davona Dale (G2) stakes, which offer 85 qualifying points (50-20-10-5) to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) and the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1), respectively.

Of significant interest earlier Saturday is the inaugural running of the $20 million Saudi Cup at King Abdulaziz Racetrack in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Post time for the one-turn race at nine furlongs is set for 12:40 pm ET, with coverage on FS1 from noon-1 p.m. The strong American contingent features the seasonal debut of 3-year-old champion Maximum Security; last year's Whitney Stakes (G1) winner and Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) runner-up McKinzie; Midnight Bisou, the champion older filly or mare of 2019; Tacitus, who endured a series of tough trips in top-level company after taking the Lambholm Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G2); and Mucho Gusto, winner of the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes Presented by Runhappy (G1).

Knowing little about the Saudi surface other than reports that it is deep and demanding, and daunted by confiscatory takeouts of up to 27% in exotic pools, we'll stick close to home and focus on South Florida for potential plays. A prevailing theme is that major contenders in several races drew poorly, including Vitalogy (post 12) in the Palm Beach Stakes (G3T); Valedictorian (11) in the Honey Fox Stakes (G3T); and Chance It (12) in the Fountain of Youth.

Palm Beach (GP, race 4, 12:57 ET): Logical threats Famished (10) and Fenwick Station (11) didn't fare much better than Vitalogy (12), which has prompted me to go toward the inside with Tiesto (1), Fancy Liquor (5) and Life On Top (8) as the A-team.

Tiesto is on par with the others based on his winning debut early last fall, and projecting several months of maturity ostensibly gives him a big shot from the rail. Fancy Liquor and Life On Top were 14-1 and 45-1 for their respective maiden wins earlier at the meet, earning competitive figures, and it never hurts to have a race on the course under your belt.

A — 1, 5, 8

B — 10, 11, 12

Honey Fox (GP, race 5, 1:27 ET): Valedictorian (11) is the only graded stakes winner in the field and ran a bang-up race finishing second in this race last winter. But post 11 going a mile on the local course is a tough row to hoe, and she will have to be used early to contend with rival speed horses such as Silver Kitten (1) and Conquest Hardcandy (6).

So while Valedictorian is easily the most accomplished member of the field, this leads us to put Atomic Kitten (2) on the A list as well. Yes, she benefited from a perfect trip winning the South Beach, but the half-full view is that she is lightly raced for top connections and comes off a breakthrough performance.

The likable 7-year-old mare Miss Munnings (8) has a handful of recent races that are good enough to land her somewhere on the board.

A — 2, 11

B — 8

Herecomesthebride (race 9, 3:28 ET): Abscond (7)  barnstormed around North America in a juvenile campaign that included stops in California, Kentucky and New York, and a trip up North to take the Natalma Stakes (G1T) at Woodbine. She didn't have the best of trips when a close third in the Ginger Brew Stakes first time back, and for a change, she gets to run back on the same course.

It's not like Abscond has some tremendous edge by the numbers, though, so we'll back her up with some price shots in the form of Veruca (2), Declarationwarrior (3) and Lucky Polly (10).

Veruca was third in her debut on turf at Keeneland last fall behind Lucrezia, who has since come back to win the Sandpiper and Suncoast on the main track at Tampa Bay Downs. Veruca subsequently tried dirt for her next two starts, posting a game maiden win in the slop at Churchill Downs, and forcing a strong pace in the Gasparilla.

The Mark Casse-trained duo of Declarationwarrior and Lucky Polly seemed to turn a corner in recent maiden wins, and figure to be close right back if able to hold form.

A — 7

B — 2, 3, 10

Davona Dale (GP, race 10, 3:59 ET): Spice Is Nice (6) was bet to 11-10 for her unveiling and the $1 million Curlin  filly performed as advertised to win by a dozen lengths. She spots experience to Tonalist's Shape (9), who has won all four of her starts capped by a decisive score in an edition of the Forward Gal Stakes (G3) that was nearly two seconds slower than the Swale Stakes (G3) the same day.

We're not fully sold on either of those two just yet, so let's also use Reluctant Bride (5) and Bayerness (7).

Reluctant Bride goes turf to dirt with a suitable pedigree—by Speightstown  out of a multiple graded stakes winner on dirt—and a bullet blowout from the gate Tuesday for Patrick Biancone, who has done well with the 3-year-olds Ete Indien and Sole Volante off the same surface switch.

Bayerness beat 20 horses winning her first two starts in Kentucky last fall while handling fast and sloppy tracks. The filly she beat to garner her first-level allowance condition, Swiss Skydiver, was recently third in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2).

A — 6, 9

B — 5, 7

Fountain of Youth (GP, race 14, 6:04 ET): It's a shame that extreme longshots Makabim (50-1), Masterday (30-1) and The Falcon (50-1) drew posts 2-3-4, and one could also question the presence of Gear Jockey (20-1), who is many lengths better on turf.

It's probably best to await finalizing any plays since the connections of Chance It (12) have indicated he may be withheld in search of greener pastures if there are no race-day defections.

Neither did the draw do any favors for the aforementioned Ete Indien (11), who was a pole clear for second in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) to ante-post Kentucky Derby favorite Tiz the Law.

Pending late-breaking developments, the keys as of now are Dennis' Moment (5) and As Seen On Tv (6), who both fared well at the draw.

Dennis' Moment lost all chance stumbling badly at the break of the TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), which has developed into a negative key race. Nevertheless, he will be tough to beat with a representative effort, notably anything like what he produced to win the Iroquois Stakes (G3).

As Seen On Tv gave Chance It all he wanted through a pitched battle in the Mucho Macho Man, and is capable of using stalk-and-pounce tactics if a hot pace develops among some combination of Liam's Lucky Charm (9), Shotski (10) and Ete Indien.

A — 5, 6

B — 11, 12