After scratching Chance It from the Feb. 29 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), the result of a disadvantageous outside draw, trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. will now have to wait until the March 7 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2) to see whether that colt confirms his worthiness to go to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1).
But the trainer might already be headed to Churchill Downs in Louisville—for the May 1 Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) the day before the Derby. You get that impression after his 3-year-old filly Tonalist's Shape improved her record to 5-for-5 in upsetting heavily favored Spice Is Nice in the $200,000 Davona Dale Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park.
Breaking sharper than she did in winning the Feb. 1 Forward Gal Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream, Tonalist's Shape was involved throughout in the one-mile Davona Dale. Under jockey Tyler Gaffalione, the daughter of Tonalist went to the lead with an opening quarter-mile in :23.84 under mild pressure and withstood a brief backstretch bid from longshot Chart with a half-mile in :46.93.
Casting that one aside on the turn, Tonalist's Shape covered six furlongs in 1:11.26 with a length advantage over Spice Is Nice and maintained a clear edge throughout the stretch run. She hit the wire 1 1/4 lengths in front, content to only do what was necessary.
“I didn’t really expect to be in front, but she broke so sharp and nobody really wanted the lead, so I went ahead and took it. She was cruising along nicely,” Gaffalione said. “I know she wants to run all day, so I wasn’t afraid to pull the trigger a little early, and she’s just a really nice filly."
Tonalist's Shape, who paid $6.20 to win, finished in 1:36.77 for her third stakes victory. She also won the Nov. 30 Hut Hut Stakes at Gulfstream.
The victory earned her 50 qualifying points on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks, improving her total to 60. She ranks second on the leaderboard behind Rachel Alexandra Stakes Presented by Fasig-Tipton (G2) winner Finite, who has 70.
“It’s everything we’ve dreamed of,” Joseph said. “It’s a long way to go, but to secure a spot is what dreams are made of. Dreams come true.”
Tonalist's Shape's next race, expected to come in the March 28 Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) on the Curlin Florida Derby (G1) undercard at Gulfstream, may provide even more of a barometer of her Oaks merits, coming over 1 1/16 miles. All of her races have been around one turn, from 5 1/2 furlongs to a mile.
Runner-up Spice Is Nice, ridden by John Velazquez, turned in a steady performance to finish well clear of the rest of the pack. The $1.05 million Keeneland September Yearling Sale purchase picked up 20 points on the Oaks points scale. Third-place Dream Marie and fourth-place Reluctant Bride earned 10 and five points, respectively.
The $119,040 payday improved Tonalist's Shape's earnings to $309,390—with most of that coming for her current owners of Slam Dunk Racing, Doug Branham, and Legacy Ranch, a group that bought her privately after a debut maiden victory last fall. Bloodstock agent Mike Recio brokered the interest bought by Branham.
Bred in Kentucky by Sabana Farm, Tonalist's Shape is the first foal out of the stakes-winning Harlan's Holiday mare Hitechnoweenie. She fell short of her reserve twice at public auction, most recently when bidding stalled at $60,000 at the 2019 Ocala Breeders' Sales Spring Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training.