Spring Forward Into Handicapping Saturday's Stakes

There are a handful of 85-point qualifying races to be run the first Saturday in March for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) and Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1).

What's more, clocks spring forward to Daylight Saving Time shortly after the dust settles on the Gotham (G3) and Busher Invitational at Aqueduct Racetrack, the Honeybee (G3) at Oaklawn Park, the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita Park, and the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2) at Tampa Bay Downs. Spring is just around the corner.

At the Big A, the Busher and Gotham are the final legs of an all-stakes pick four that begins with the Stymie Stakes and Tom Fool Handicap (G3). 

At the Great Race Place, the San Felipe is flanked by the Frank E. Kilroe Mile (G1T), Santa Anita Handicap (G1) and San Carlos (G2).

The Tampa Bay Derby anchors an all-stakes pick four along with the Challenger (G3), Hillsborough (G2T) and Florida Oaks (G3T).

Those inclined to mix and match may dabble with a "Cross Country Pick Five" linking the Florida Oaks, Busher, Tampa Bay Derby, Gotham and Honeybee.

Preceding the Honeybee at Oaklawn is the six-furlong Hot Springs, where the venerable Whitmore will try to win for the fourth straight year.

Let's go spanning the nation in search of some opportunities, alphabetically by track.

Stymie (Aqu, race 7, 4:18 ET): Based on the way Mischevious Alex (see Gotham) won the Swale (G3) first time back from a layoff, let's assume John Servis has Diamond King (6) ready to roll first time out since chasing Maximum Security in the Bold Ruler last fall, five weeks after a hard-fought  runner-up finish in the Parx Dirt Mile. Diamond King has won four of six starts around one turn, two of those tallies coming off workouts as a first-timer and in his 2019 return.

I'm leery of both American Anthem, who had some trouble in the Toboggan (G3) but couldn't capitalize when a seam materialized in the stretch; and morning-line choice Wicked Trick, who missed the General George (G3) after showing signs of colic, and has been beating up on softer.

In the mix are Stan the Man (1) and Backsideofthemoon (7), either of whom could be helped by the cutback in distance after chasing Mr. Buff (who subsequently won the Haynesfield by 20 lengths) through quick fractions in the Jazil.

A - 6

B - 1, 7

Busher (Aqu, race 9, 5:14 ET): Lake Avenue (5) and Maedean (4) ran one-two when last seen in a slow-paced Demoiselle (G2) three months ago, and those daughters of Tapit  will take the bulk of the action as they return. Lake Avenue benefited from speed-friendly conditions keeping Maedean at bay in the Demoiselle, and the latter was actually favored that day.

The recency edge goes to Mo City (1) and Panthera Onca (3), who come off good races in January. Mo City stretches out another furlong after rallying for second in the Gasparilla, as does Panthera Onca, who ran on with good courage to regain second late in her first try for Brad Cox.

A - 4, 5

B - 1, 3

Gotham (Aqu, race 10, 5:42): There's enough pace to make me shy away a bit from the two morning-line choices, Mischevious Alex (6) and Untitled (10), who project as part of the early mix along with some others, notably War Stopper, who got loose for a fast maiden win with blinkers added last out.

Mischevious Alex has posted two blowout wins since blinkers came on, but seems susceptible to at least a mild regression off a big-figure Swale performance. Untitled had trouble in the Swale and ran back 13 days later against grade 1-placed Gouverneur Morris going two turns at Tampa Bay, so this will be his third race in five weeks.

The keys are Attachment Rate (4), who moved through blazing middle fractions to manhandle maidens three weeks ago; and Montauk Traffic (8), whose first work back from a last-to-first score in the Jimmy Winkfield was a bullet.

A - 4, 8

B - 6, 10

Honeybee (OP, race 9, 5:09 CT): Hard to say if generous morning-line quotes of 6-1 and 9-2 for Shedaresthedevil (2) or Alta's Award (5) will be available come post time, but they will be in our horizontal wagering matrix for sure.

Shedaresthedevil returned from a four-month absence to run a bang-up second in her initial start for Brad Cox, and it's worth noting the six-furlong split from that optional claiming route was just a tick slower than what Ring Leader (4) needed to win the six-furlong Dixie Belle one race earlier.

After spinning her wheels in a sloppy sprint debut, Alta's Award comes off back-to-back route wins showing versatility in terms of pace placement.

Ring Leader stretches out after beginning her career with three sprint wins, and she will take some catching as the likely lone speed.

Moto (1), a close second in the Golden Rod (G2) to the streaking multiple stakes winner Finite, figures to benefit from last month's comeback in the Suncoast, when she was overhauled late for second by Turtle Trax (3). The latter may also improve second time back, partcularly in view of two recent sharp works.

A - 2, 4, 5

B - 1, 3

Santa Anita Handicap (SA, race 10, 4:03 PT): I'm pretty chalky through the earlier stakes on this card—Flagstaff in the San Carlos, Got Stormy to rebound in the Kilroe, Bob Baffert's duo of Authentic and Thousand Words in the San Felipe—and Gift Box (4) looks like a pretty solid 6-5 shot as he tries to post a repeat in this race and become an unprecedented third straight Big 'Cap winner for John Sadler, who also trained 2018 winner Accelerate .

I'd only back up with Midcourt (5) on the chance that he gets an easy lead, and Endorsed (8), who was put away after a fourth-place finish in the Runhappy Travers (G1) and returned with an impressive optional claiming win at Gulfstream Park recently.

A - 4

B - 5, 8

Tampa Bay Derby (Tam, race 11, 5:32 ET): No major knocks on the two favorites. Chance It (4) was withheld from last Saturday's Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (G2) due to an outside draw and has a solid slate of 4-2-0 from six starts. Sole Volante (7) was third to Chance It in the Mucho Macho Man first time on dirt, before running down heavily favored Independence Hall in the Sam F. Davis (G3).

Sole Volante has since come back to work seven furlongs on turf, as did stablemate Ete Indien before he demolished the field in the Fountain of Youth. He may be capable of turning the tables on Chance It with a good race over the local surface under his belt, especially if Chance It feels the effects of his hard-fought win in the Mucho Macho Man off the bench.

Todd Pletcher takes three shots at a record sixth Tampa Bay Derby win with last-out maiden winners Texas Swing (1) and Market Analysis (5), and the maiden Unrighteous (9), who was beaten a length by Spa City (2) but nearly 15 lengths clear of the rest four weeks ago.

Spa City is a son of Street Sense , who captured the 2007 Tampa Bay Derby as prelude to victories in the Kentucky Derby and Travers.

Spa City has made steady progress through three starts for soon-to-be-jockey-agent Kiaran McLaughlin, and his last two works have been improved as well. I don't believe you'll get anything like the 10-1 quote, though.

A - 4, 7

B - 1, 2, 9