Handicapping: Insights on Oaklawn, Turfway, Santa Anita

The final weekend of winter feels as far away from normal as can be, but at least horseplayers are already used to following the sport remotely from their living rooms. Despite empty grandstands, the show will go on at racetracks across America Saturday. Fittingly, it will be raining at many of them.

The rain that prompted the cancellation of March 13 racing at Santa Anita Park is expected to linger into Saturday when Hard Not to Love stretches out from the rail as the favorite in the $400,000 Beholder Mile Stakes (G1). The San Simeon (G3T) was originally on the card, as well, but has been pushed back to March 21 in hopes of better weather and a drier turf course.

The richest race in the nation is the $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2) for 3-year-olds at Oaklawn Park, where the highly regarded Nadal stretches out from the rail in search of qualifying points (50-20-10-5) for the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1). Rain in Hot Springs, Ark., on Friday is likely to hang around for a Saturday card that also includes the $350,000 Essex Handicap and $350,000 Azeri Stakes (G2).

It's also the biggest day of the season at Turfway Park, where six stakes are topped by the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) and Maxim Crane Works Bourbonette Oaks, which each offer 34 points (20-8-4-2) to the Derby and Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1).

The Bourbonette, Rebel and Jeff Ruby are the interior legs (B-C-D) of the NYRA-hosted Cross Country Pick Five that begins with a maiden special (race 9) at Aqueduct Racetrack and ends with a maiden special (race 11) at Oaklawn. You can download free Equibase past performances for the sequence here:

Let's take a look at the Beholder and then three stakes in the XC P5.

Beholder Mile (SA, race 7, 4:07 PT): The prospect of a wet track is a major X-factor for the majority of the seven fillies and mares entered here. Morning-line favorite Hard Not to Love (1) and 30-1 longshot Kaydetre (4) were maiden winners on back-to-back days in February 2019 on harrowed surfaces rated "good," but that's the extent of their experience with wet tracks, Three logical contenders—Der Lu (2), Ollie's Candy (6) and Ce Ce (7)—have never encountered off-going. Zusha (3) was second in the Bayakoa (G3) on a sealed "good" track at Los Alamitos Race Course three races back. Mother Mother (5) ran on three consecutive wet tracks early last year with mixed results including a sharp second in the Beaumont Stakes Presented By Keeneland Select (G3) and a 14-length defeat in the Eight Belles Stakes Presented By Derby City Gaming (G2).

The versatility displayed to this point by Hard Not to Love gives Mike Smith options depending on the break because the filly has won on the lead, as a stalker, and rallying from dead last.

Ollie's Candy, winner of the 2018 Summertime Oaks (G2) and last year's Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (G1) over the track, is seen as the main danger in her first appearance since a credible fourth in the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1). However, a mile could be a tad short for her first time back, and she must tote 125 pounds conceding four pounds to the field.

A — 1

B — 6

Bourbonette (TP, race 10, 5:55 ET): Laura's Light (9) was purchased by Gary Barber and relocated to Southern California with Peter Miller after winning her debut on Golden Gate Field's synthetic surface. Three subsequent starts on turf have produced a placing in the Jimmy Durante (G3T) behind the unbeaten (4 for 4) Alms, and wins in the Blue Norther and the Sweet Life (G3T). The daughter of Constitution  can set or stalk the pace depending on the break from post 9.

In addition to backing up with Queen of God (3) and Pass the Plate (5), I also want to include Mama's Grey Ghost (1) if that 20-1 shot lands here instead of the Beyond The Wire Stakes, a one-turn mile at her home base of Laurel Park where she drew post 2.

Mama's Grey Ghost is by Violence , a productive sire of synthetic runners, and could fall out to an easy lead from the rail with a short run to the first turn.

A — 9

B — 3, 5

C — 1

Rebel (OP, race 10, 5:23 CT): Bob Baffert shoots for a seventh win in the 1 1/16-mile Rebel, and the fact that he takes blinkers off Nadal (1) bodes well for the Blame  colt's initial route try.

Nadal has worked a total of 18 furlongs since handling heavy pace pressure to take the San Vicente Stakes (G2). He will have to deal with the speedy Louisiana-bred No Parole (5), but Joel Rosario figures to let that one go early and move out to a tracking position. Nadal looks legit, but getting anything like the 5-2 quote on the morning line is a pipedream.

The B-team consists of Basin (3), Silver Prospector (4) and Three Technique (6), who have all run well on wet tracks. Basin has been absent since taking the Runhappy Hopeful Stakes (G1) in the slop, and he is a half brother to Rise Up, a multiple route winner of over $900,000. Silver Prospector won a sloppy Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at the expense of one of the current Derby favorites, Tiz the Law, and emerges from a big-figure win in the Southwest Stakes (G3). Three Technique followed a placing to Basin last summer with back-to-back wins and returned with a solid second in a muddy Smarty Jones Stakes.

A — 1

B — 3, 4, 6

Jeff Ruby Steaks (TP, race 11, 6:42 ET): The two favorites, Invader (11) and Field Pass (12) didn't fare well at the draw for post positions but at 1 1/8 miles there is a decent run to the first turn.

Invader overcame post 10 demolishing a big field of maidens first time on the Turfway track and showed excellent tactical speed once again to win the John Battaglia Memorial as much the best. He has clearly found his calling for Wesley Ward, who has won at a 36% clip on synthetic surfaces since the start of 2019.

I'm going to let reigning two-time Eclipse Award winner Irad Ortiz Jr. figure out what to do with Field Pass from the far outside. The son of Lemon Drop Kid  got up late to win the Dania Beach in his seasonal bow on turf for Mike Maker and will try synthetic for the first time.

Maker also entered Fancy Liquor (3) and Victory Boulevard (7), and this will be their first experience with the all-weather stuff as well. Fancy Liquor wired a full field of maidens on turf first time out at Gulfstream Park. His speed makes him dangerous, and his sire, Lookin At Lucky , has been a dynamic producer of sophomore synthetic runners the past several years. I'm not sure why Victory Boulevard is tabbed at 30-1, which seems exceedingly generous for a horse coming off three straight wins by open lengths at the Big A.

Myamanoi (5) was beaten less than a length by Field Pass in the Dania Beach Stakes and switches over from turf third time back from a layoff.

A — 3, 11

B — 5, 7, 12

Best of luck and stay safe all.