Analyzing a Stakes Saturday in Television Spotlight

In these unprecedented times Thoroughbred racing is the only sport up and running, and there will be ample television coverage for handicappers sheltering in place this first Saturday of spring.

The graded stakes action is at Santa Anita Park and Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots. Be sure to check for late rider changes, because some high-profile jockeys have opted out for the foreseeable future, notably reigning two-time Eclipse Award winner Irad Ortiz Jr.

At The Great Race Place the long and short of it are a pair of grade 3 stakes scheduled for turf, the 12-furlong San Luis Rey and the 5 1/2-furlong San Simeon, which last week was postponed because of inclement weather in Southern California.

It's the climactic day of the meet at Fair Grounds, where eight stakes are topped by an all-grade 2 pick four on the New Orleans Classic, Muniz Memorial Classic, Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks and Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby.

San Simeon (SA, race 5, 2:33 PT): Layoffs abound and the only entrant to have run this year is Murad Khan (3), who figures to get some pace up front after putting in a dazzling stretch charge to win first off the claim for Doug O'Neill. That win covered the same course and trip, and it was the 7-year-old gelding's first-ever try at less than a mile. He is tabbed at 6-1 on the morning line, which would be great value on an in-form closer matched against several speed horses who haven't run for months.

Chief among those are Bound for Nowhere (2), who was meant for Keeneland's Shakertown (G2T) and re-routed here; Cistron (4), who was second in a longer version of this race last year before finding his true calling on the main track; Surrender Now (5), whose trainer Peter Miller isn't very strong with horses laid up more than six months; and Voodoo Song (6), who was off his best form in 2019 and goes first time for Dick Mandella.

A - 3

B - 2, 5

New Orleans Classic (FG, race 9, 3:10 CT): Silver Dust (6) ran a close second in this race a year ago and will obviously take some beating after winning the Louisiana (G3) and Mineshaft (G3) earlier at the stand. He's never won at nine furlongs, though, and has to give four pounds to eight opponents, including possible lone speed Fearless (3) and 2019 Louisiana Derby winner By My Standards (8).

Fearless sends mixed signals as a $725,000 yearling buy who didn't make it to the races until late December of his 3-year-old season, but the gelded son of Ghostzapper  recorded big-time pace and speed figures when stretched out at Gulfstream Park second time out, and has had seven weeks of recovery time for Todd Pletcher.

By My Standards has won three of four starts on fast tracks, finishing second to Gun It (9) here last winter in the lone defeat. By My Standards was shelved after a tough trip in the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1), and returned to win a prep for this easily. Gun It, a $2.6 million Tapit  colt, may finally be turning a corner after a close second in the Mineshaft ; this will be his first try behind 1 1/16 miles.

Lone Sailor (1) has a slate of 3-7-5 from 24 starts, which makes it seem unlikely he can cobble together back-to-back wins after beating optional claimers. Be that as it may, he has turned in three sharp workouts since that win second off the layoff, which is especially noteworthy for a deep closer such as this.

A - 6, 8

B - 3, 9

C - 1

Muniz Memorial (FG, race 10, 3:42 CT): Synchrony (12) won this race in 2018 and ran third last year, but I've got to relegate him to a defensive use from post 12, because that is a tough spot in a race run around 2 1/2 turns.

Dot Matrix (1) is second back from a layoff after taking the John B. Connally Turf Cup (G3T), and it has been made readily apparent that ignoring sharp Brad Cox-trained runners is bad for your pari-mutuel health. 

Chad Brown's duo of Rockemperor (4) and Instilled Regard (6) turn back from races at 1 3/16 miles. The former was stuck behind a slow pace when last seen in the Saratoga Derby Invitational, and the latter comes off a solid third in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1T).

Channel Maker is a multiple grade 1 winner at 11 and beyond so he certainly classes up, but 1 1/8 miles seems a bit short.

A - 1, 6

B - 4, 8

C - 12

FG Oaks (FG, race 11, 4:15 CT): Hard to knock 3-5 choice Finite (6) after five consecutive wins culminating with a breakthrough performance in the Rachel Alexandra (G2).

The half-empty view is that Finite's last figure is her only blowout number relative to these. Tempers Rising (3) ran her to a photo in the Silverbulletday two back and is on a favorable figure pattern for Dallas Stewart, who has an uncanny knack of hitting the board with longshots in marquee events. 

Bonny South (4) got a terrific pace setup erasing a 14-length deficit first time in blinkers, and makes her stakes debut for Brad Cox.

A - 6

B - 3, 4

Louisiana Derby (FG, race 12, 4:49 CT): The Road To the Kentucky Derby has gotten longer and so has this race, which has been lengthened to 1 3/16 miles this year. More than half the 16 entrants emerge from divisions of the Risen Star Presented By Lamarque Ford (G2), notably Modernist (14), who is marooned outside after taking the slower heat; and Enforceable (10), who was second in the faster division.

Major Fed (1) was second by a length to Modernist after a wide trip in their first meeting, but now projects for a ground-saving journey sitting behind an early battle between Wells Bayou (3) and Ny Traffic (11). Moreover, he should benefit from his initial stakes experience.

So too should Wells Bayou, who has inside position and emerges from a pace-setting try in the Southwest (G3). Not only was that his stakes debut, it was also his first time on a fast track after beginning his career on three sealed wet surfaces.

Royal Act (8) made a couple runs when second in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) first time on dirt and first time wearing blinkers. He has worked a total of 23 furlongs in the seven weeks that have elapsed since then, and need only reproduce his Southern California form to contend.

A - 3, 8

B - 1, 10, 14

C - 9