Handicapping Gulfstream Park's All-Stakes Rainbow 6

Other than the Santa Ana Stakes (G3T) at Santa Anita Park, all the graded stakes action this shelter-in-place Saturday is at Gulfstream Park, where a 14-race program includes 10 stakes, six of them graded and topped by the Curlin Florida Derby (G1) and Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2).

The Derby and Oaks are 170-point qualifying races (100-40-20-10) for the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1) and Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1), which are now scheduled for Sept. 5 and Sept. 4, respectively.

With racing canceled or postponed indefinitely across the globe due to the coronavirus pandemic, horses originally intended to run elsewhere turned up at Gulfstream. The Derby and Oaks are part of a must-pay Rainbow 6 that had a carryover in excess of $1.5 million after there was no single winning ticket Thursday. All that's required for a potentially life-changing score (hasn't life changed enough already?), is to navigate through the Sand Springs Stakes, Orchid Stakes Presented By Rood and Riddle (G3T), Gulfstream Park Oaks, Kitten's Joy Pan American Stakes (G2T), Appleton Stakes (G3T) and Florida Derby.

Not including also-eligibles the sequence goes 12x12x12x10x12x12, which works out to over 2.4 million possible combinations or a mere $497,664 to cover them all at 20 cents apiece. 

Our tickets will be a bit less. Keep in mind there is also a $400,000 guaranteed pick five starting with the Orchid and a $500,000 pick four beginning with the Oaks.

Sand Springs (GP, race 9, 3:34 ET): A surplus of speed works against morning-line favorite Newspaperofrecord (5), who was dominant at 2, a bust at 3 and makes her 4-year-old debut drawn inside stretch-out sprinter Jakarta and last year's Sand Springs winner Valedictorian (12), who came up short in the Honey Fox (G3T) to begin her season.

Zofelle (2) won her first three starts in the United States, then had a difficult trip behind a stakes repeater last month. She ought to get a favorable pace setup, and the same goes for Getmotherarose (7), the late-rallying Honey Fox winner who is third off the bench. 

Also third back is La Signare (6), who cuts back from a decent third in the longer The Very One Stakes (G3T).

A — 2, 7

B — 5, 6

C — 10, 12

Orchid (GP, race 10, 4:17): Mean Mary (6) was meant for Keeneland but lands here as the controlling speed and comes off a front-end win in the La Prevoyante Stakes (G3T). The lightly raced and improving daughter of the late Scat Daddy has inside position over potential pace rival Elizabeth Way (12).

Gentle Ruler (5) began 2019 as a maiden but was a four-time stakes winner at four tracks by the end of the year under Chris Landeros, whose winless streak at the current meet has reached epic proportions.

A — 6

B — 5, 12

Gulfstream Park Oaks (GP, race 11, 4:49): As a second-time starter Spice Is Nice (5) couldn't get to the far more experienced Tonalist's Shape (9) in the Davona Dale (G2), as the latter won for the fifth time in as many starts. Spice Is Nice ran on with good courage for second, however, and the $1 million Curlin  filly figures to improve off that race as she stretches out to two turns.

Swiss Skydiver (6) is ostensibly taking a drop in class after a third in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes Presented by Fasig-Tipton (G2) behind Finite, who was winning her fourth straight stake, and juvenile filly champion British Idiom.

Lucrezia (7) was intended for the Central Bank Ashland (G1), but the Sandpiper Stakes and Suncoast Stakes winner winds up here after two recent bullet workouts.

A — 5, 9

B — 6, 7

Pan American (GP, race 12, 5:26): With four graded stakes winners from his last four local appearances and coming off paired peak efforts in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Presented By Runhappy (G1T) and the Mac Diarmida Stakes (G2T), Zulu Alpha (9) will be a stand-alone on many tickets.

On the chance the 7-year-old gelding comes up flat after those lights-out performances, the backups are Channel Cat (1), who beat Zulu Alpha in the 2019 Bowling Green Stakes (G2T) and has had two months off since the Lasix-free Pegasus Turf; and defending Pan Am Stakes winner Focus Group (10), who makes his seasonal bow for new trainer Christophe Clement after being purchased at the Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale.

A — 9

B — 1, 10

Appleton (GP, race 13, 6:00): Throw a proverbial blanket over a large handful of contenders in this two-turn mile, with trips and racing luck expected to play a significant role.

English Bee (1) closed gamely between horses when a close second to Sombeyay (10) in the Canadian Turf (G3T), which featured blistering fractions start to finish. They will be at the forefront of a spread play along with March to the Arch (3), who overcame a slow pace to take the Sunshine Millions Turf first out this year, followed by a sharp third in the Tampa Bay Stakes (G3T).

Hembree (2) and Ballagh Rocks (4) are both third off the layoff and boast competitive races on the go-back.

Dr. Edgar (8) was a front-running winner of this race a year ago and may get loose up top with the ever-aggressive Paco Lopez.

A — 1, 3, 10

B — 2, 4, 8

Florida Derby (GP, race 14, 6:36): Constitution  won all four of his starts at Gulfstream, including the 2014 Florida Derby and 2015 Donn Handicap (G1), and the son of Tapit  sired three of the top four morning-line choices: Gouverneur Morris (5), Tiz the Law (7) and Independence Hall (9).

Tiz the Law will rightfully be favored after taking the Holy Bull (G3) over Ete Indien (12), and he was flattered when the latter returned to capture the Fasig-Tipton Fountain Of Youth (G2) in dominating wire-to-wire style.

Tiz the Law is not without some quirks however, and this will be his first experience in a big field. The same goes for Independence Hall, who has acted up on more than one occasion and may actually be helped by the relative quiet of spectator-less surroundings.

Gouverneur Morris ran on well for second in the Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (G1) directly off a debut sprint win last year for five-time Florida Derby winner Todd Pletcher and had a useful tightener garnering his first-level allowance condition over the well-regarded Untitled in mid-February. 

Pletcher also sends out Candy Tycoon (10), who looks to be coming around after a maiden win followed by a runner-up finish in the Fountain Of Youth.

A— 7, 12

B — 1, 5

C — 9, 10