Handicapping: Oaklawn Park is Where It's At

In terms of stakes opportunities, Hot Springs, Ark., is strictly where it's at for the foreseeable future, and not surprisingly horses have come out of the woodwork for Saturday's doubleheader of the $150,000 Oaklawn Mile Stakes and $200,000 Oaklawn Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

Steve Asmussen, who was plagued by a 0-for-44 slump locally until getting a winner April 9, is represented by three runners in both races. He sends out Boldor, Snapper Sinclair and Bankit in a 14-horse edition of the Oaklawn Mile, as well as Basin, Shoplifted and Gold Street in a 13-horse Oaklawn Stakes. All six are stakes winners, notably Basin, who captured the Runhappy Hopeful Stakes (G1) late last summer and comes off a decent third in the Rebel Stakes (G2) four weeks back.

The Oaklawn Mile marks the seasonal debuts for three talented runners: Mr. Money, who won four graded stakes as a 3-year-old; Tom's d'Etat, a dominating winner of the Clark Presented By Norton Healthcare Stakes (G1) when last seen in late November; and Improbable, who took the 2018 Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) and was the beaten favorite in the Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1) last year.

The Oaklawn Stakes has exchanged positions on the calendar with the Arkansas Derby (G1), which is now set for May 2 and offers 170 qualifying points (100-40-20-10) for the Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5. The Oaklawn's top three finishers earn fees-paid berths to the Arkansas Derby and the winner gets an automatic spot in the Preakness, whenever that might be.

The Oaklawn Mile and Oaklawn Stakes are the first and third legs of a rather daunting all-route late pick four that also includes a maiden special for 3-year-olds and an optional claimer for older males, both of which attracted fields of 14 including a couple of also-eligibles.

Oaklawn Mile (OP, race 9, 5:43 ET): The aforementioned trio of Mr. Money (2), Tom's d'Etat (3) and Snapper Sinclair (7) have banked over $1.2 million, and Long Range Toddy (10) or Improbable (14) can become millionaires with a win, so this one-mile race could easily pass for a graded stakes race.

With a short run to the first turn and a short stretch, the lean is to Mr. Money and Tom's d'Etat, who break toward the inside and possess good tactical speed. Improbable is marooned on the far outside, and will be used in a defensive mode since too much has to go perfectly from way out there, and he was unfocused and/or unruly as a four-time beaten favorite in 2019, beginning with a division of the Rebel when run down by Long Range Toddy. The half-full view with Improbable is a jockey switch back to Drayden Van Dyke, who is 4-1-0 from five rides on the City Zip colt.

Given that Mr. Money, Tom's d'Etat and Pioneer Spirit (4) all have early speed, things could set up for a late runner such as Bankit (8), who was narrowly beaten in two stakes earlier at the meet before spinning his wheels in a sloppy renewal of the $350,000 Essex Handicap. That only served to reinforce the notion he dislikes sealed wet tracks, so await race-day conditions because the forecast calls for a 50-50 chance of showers.

A — 2, 3

B — 14

C — 8

Oaklawn Stakes (OP, race 11, 6:48 ET): Bob Baffert has compiled other-worldly numbers shipping to Hot Springs over the years, and he has the favorite here in Thousand Words (4), who is dropping in class after coming up empty in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) behind his unbeaten stablemate Authentic. Prior to that, however, the $1 million son of Pioneerof the Nile exhibited considerable grit taking his first three starts, including a downgraded Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) and the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3).

If I'm playing the favorite to rebound then I need to do the same with Digital (9), who was awarded first money in an optional claimer two back that went faster than the Louisiana Stakes (G3) and Lecomte Stakes (G3) later on the January 18 card at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots. He subsequently faded late in the faster division of the Risen Star Stakes Presented By Lamarque Ford (G2) but rates a chance to bounce back at 8-1 on the morning line.

I'm on the fence with Basin. His Hopeful has developed into a negative key race with the five runners behind him a collective 1 for 18 since then, with the lone tally delivered by stablemate Shoplifted (6) in the Remington Springboard Mile. On the plus side, Basin put in a middle move behind unbeaten Nadal in a fast-paced Rebel and ran on for third, and he could move up off that effort considering it was his first start in over six months and first going long.

Coach Bahe (2) was right behind Basin as a 66-1 bomb in the Rebel with first-time Lasix, and will be a big price once again. He remains hard to gauge, as all four of his starts have come on either turf or sealed wet dirt.

The Todd Pletcher-trained Farmington Road (12) didn't fare well at the post position draw, but the late-running son of Quality Road  may be able to drop over and tuck in behind the early pace. He ran on with good courage finishing fourth in the faster Rebel heat while wide, and perhaps the addition of blinkers will put him in better shape from a tactical perspective.

A — 4, 9

B — 1, 12

C — 2