Handicapping: Focused on Count Fleet, Apple Blossom

The focus is on Oaklawn Park again this Saturday, as local legend Whitmore takes on 10 rivals in a bid to win the $350,000 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (G3) for a third time, and a full gate of 14 fillies and mares square off in a strong renewal of the $600,000 Apple Blossom Handicap (G1) that includes a quartet of seven-figure earners.

The Count Fleet and Apple Blossom are legs A and C of a pick four that also features a high-end optional claiming sprint with 12 fillies and mares and a no-conditions $50,000 claiming route in which a large handful of the 14 entrants are former stakes campaigners.

Count Fleet (OP, race 8, 5:14 ET): Coming off a fourth win in the Hot Springs, 7-year-old Whitmore (9) needs no introduction. His 8-4-1 record from 13 starts at Oaklawn includes back-to-back wins in the 2017-18 editions of the Count Fleet and a runner-up finish last year when outdueled by eventual sprint champion Mitole . The lukewarm 5-2 favorite on the morning line is favorably weighted considering his accomplishments.

Whitmore can work out a good stalking trip from post 9, but I am downgrading the chances of three other logical contenders: Flagstaff (2), Bobby's Wicked One (4) and Hidden Scroll (7).

Flagstaff notched his first graded stakes win in last month's San Carlos Stakes (G2) over five opponents, and it's worth pointing out he was in four-horse fields in three of four starts immediately prior to that. Further, he has been recording low pace figures (mine anyway) against suspect opposition and has never been outside Southern California.

Along similar lines, Bobby's Wicked One has won five of six starts at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, but nine starts elsewhere have produced only one victory in the 2019 Commonwealth at Keeneland. The front-running son of Speightstown  is under the gun drawn inside several others with early speed.

Among the others who do their best work up front is Hidden Scroll, who was intended for the Carter Handicap (G1) prior to the shutdown in New York. To this point the only thing Hidden Scroll has proved is that he looks awesome when able to boss inferior foes on the lead; he does not possess the kind of true six-furlong speed that bodes well for his chances while precariously drawn between the likes speed burners Bobby's Wicked One, Mr. Jagermeister and Share the Upside.

I'm looking to fill out the underside of vertical exotics with some price horses that should be running late: Hog Creek Hustle (3), Wendell Fog (5) and Nitrous (11).

All three ran in last year's Woody Stephens Stakes (G1), when Hog Creek Hustle edged Nitrous by a neck for the win, and Wendell Fong faded late to wind up a very respectable fifth after pressing a blazing pace.

A — 9

B — 3, 5, 11

Apple Blossom (OP, race 10, 6:16 ET): As a contrarian bettor by nature, my initial thought was to give morning-line favorite Come Dancing the heave-ho. After all, she hasn't been out since finishing off the board in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (G1) and she has never been two turns.

The half-full view, though, is she won four stakes from 6 1/2 furlongs to a mile in 2019 along with a second to Midnight Bisou in the Ogden Phipps at Saturday's 1 1/16 miles out of the chute at Belmont Park. Moreover, she won off workouts as a first-time starter and has since won all four times when brought back from a layoff. 

Provided she isn't too keen early off the bench, Come Dancing (4) could find herself sitting in the pocket as a contested pace develops between Cookie Dough (10) and Serengeti Empress (11), both of whom will have to be sent hard in the run to the first turn.

Lady Apple (13) was 20 lengths behind Serengeti Empress in a sloppy renewal of the Azeri (G2) last month but ran that one down prior to that in the Houston Ladies Classic Stakes (G3) while giving her three pounds and is getting three pounds from her Saturday. The post draw didn't treat Lady Apple kindly, but she won both of her route races at Oaklawn at age 3 including the Fantasy Stakes (G3), and we'll give her a chance to rebound at a square ticket.

At double-digit odds, I'm also featuring stretch runners Point of Honor (5) and Street Band (6). 

Point of Honor had a useful prep sprinting for the first time in her seasonal debut at Tampa Bay Downs. She lacks flashy figures to this point, to be sure, but was classy enough at age 3 to win the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2) and run second in both the Coaching Club American Oaks Stakes (G1) and Alabama Stakes (G1).

Street Band rallied from next-to-last to run down favored Guarana in the Cotillion Stakes (G1) last fall and looks to be cycling back around to a peak effort third time back from a freshening.

Ce Ce (14) is a defensive use only as she emerges from a perfect setup to upset Hard Not to Love in the Beholder Mile (G1). As the second choice from post 14, she will have to show me that again under more trying circumstances.

A — 4, 5, 6

B — 11, 13

C — 14