Based on nominations alone, the $750,000 Arkansas Derby (G1) figures to have an overflow field.
The reality of the situation, with the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) moved to Sept. 5 and the Preakness Stakes (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1) unlikely to be run in their traditional spots, also paints an equally compelling picture of a large field—and possibly two divisions—when the 1 1/8-mile stakes for 3-year-olds is contested May 2 at Oaklawn Park.
A long list of 99 nominations for the race, pending late mail, was released April 18, and while the vast majority of them have no intention of running, the connections of a core group of about 20 candidates have expressed an interest in a stakes that stands at the moment as the final points race for the Kentucky Derby. It is also five weeks removed from the last grade 1 stakes for 3-year-olds at a time when the COVID-19 pandemic has caused uncertainty about when the next major race for the division will be run.
"We feel good about the race having strong contenders. I believe I have at least 12-15 horses looking to come, depending on how their next breeze goes and if their trainers like what they see," Oaklawn racing secretary Pat Pope said.
Pope added that another five to seven horses are also in the mix, depending on whether the stakes is split and run in two divisions.
"There are some horsemen on the sidelines waiting to hear about the possibility of splitting the race, and there's five to seven of them who are interested in running only if the race is split," Pope said. "If we can get 20 to commit, (Oaklawn president Louis Cella) has said if there's 20 and the field merits splitting, then he will definitely consider splitting it."
Pope said a meeting is scheduled for April 19, at which time Oaklawn officials may decide on the possibility of and conditions for running the Arkansas Derby in two divisions.
Among the leading candidates for the Arkansas Derby are Charlatan, Nadal, Gouverneur Morris, King Guillermo, Storm the Court, Silver Prospector, Anneau d'Or, Wells Bayou, Farmington Road, Taishan, Blackberry Wine, Shooters Shoot, and Attachment Rate.
Nadal and Charlatan are both undefeated and trained by Bob Baffert, a two-time Arkansas Derby winner who last captured the race in 2015 with Triple Crown champion American Pharoah . Nadal won the Rebel Stakes (G2) earlier in the Oaklawn meet, and Charlatan will be making his stakes debut off impressive maiden and allowance wins.
Baffert also nominated the undefeated Authentic and Azul Coast.
"Baffert's horses will be the talk of the race, no doubt about it," Pope said.
Sackatoga Stable's Curlin Florida Derby (G1) winner Tiz the Law was conspicuous among the absentees on the list of nominees. Following the March 28 Florida Derby, owner Jack Knowlton told BloodHorse he had little interest in running the multiple grade 1 winner in the Arkansas Derby.
"We'll stay here on the East Coast and see what happens," Knowlton said. "I don't want to face (trainer) Bob Baffert until I have to."
The Arkansas Derby was originally scheduled for April 11 with a $1 million purse, but after the Kentucky Derby shifted to late summer due to the spread of the virus, the stakes was moved to the date when the Run for the Roses was supposed to take place.
The Arkansas Derby will still award 100-40-20-10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top four finishers. It was intended to be the final prep in the Road to the Kentucky Derby series, but in all likelihood Churchill Downs will eventually add new qualifying races.
Two candidates to become point races are the Preakness and Belmont, which were scheduled for May 16 and June 6, respectively. But with racing suspended in Maryland and New York, it is uncertain when both races will be run.