Derby Trail: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down

Far From Over lived up to his name with a victory in the Withers Stakes after a troubled start. (Photo by NYRA/Susie Raisher)
A capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose Derby chances are not quite as strong as they were a week or two ago. 
Heating Up

1. Far From Over 

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With the exception of experience, this 3-year-old has it all. He’s won on the lead and coming from last to first. He’s overcome adversity by bouncing back after stumbling at the start in the Grade 3 Withers Stakes on Feb. 7 and by battling back after being headed in the stretch in his debut. Far From Over has an amazing pedigree for a Kentucky Derby hopeful that combines stamina and soundness from the top half and extreme class in the bottom half. He’s also pretty damn fast. The 103 Equibase Speed Figure he recorded in his second start in the Withers puts him right there with the second tier of 3-year-olds with a TON of room for improvement.

2. Dortmund

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You can’t teach determination. It’s either there or it’s not. Dortmund showed his mettle when battling back — from the inside — after being passed in the stretch by Firing Line to win by a head as the 3-to-5 favorite in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Feb. 7. He’s such a massive colt that he can really devour the ground with powerful strides when he gets going. With four wins in four starts, Dortmund looks like a very serious Kentucky Derby threat for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. The Big Brown colt earned a career-best 114 Equibase Speed Figure, which is tied with Robert B. Lewis runner-up Firing Line for the top speed figure earned by a 3-year-old in a stakes race in 2015. The only concern is that a tough performance with a new career-top speed figure might take something out of Dortmund for his next start, which will be a key race on the Triple Crown trail.

3. Firing Line 

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My initial thought after the Robert B. Lewis Stakes was that I might have been more impressed with Firing Line than Dortmund. The Line of David colt showed that flash of acceleration that I like to see in a 3-year-old, something that has proved effective in both the Derby and the Preakness. But I couldn’t give him a spot above Dortmund here because the winner battled back gamely to defeat him in the Lewis and also beat him in the Los Alamitos Futurity. The 114 Equibase Speed Figure means Firing Line is right there with the best of his generation, and with four starts he could still be on the rise, too. There is some back class in his pedigree as well: Canadian champion Key to the Moon and Grade 1 winners Gorgeous and Seaside Attraction, the latter the dam of Grade 1 winner and sire Cape Town and champion Golden Attraction.

Cooling Off

1. El Kabeir

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I’m in no way bailing on El Kabeir as an elite racehorse, but I had some strong questions about his ability to continue to excel at longer distances based upon his pedigree. Watching him get passed in the stretch of the Withers Stakes offered some support for that concern. El Kabeir is very fast and it could be he was worn down from pressing Classy Class early in the race, but you can count on competition for the lead in the Kentucky Derby. I dropped him out of my Derby Top 10, but I will continue to keep and eye on him. The Withers wasn’t a bad performance, I just was expecting a little bit more from a colt I had ranked fifth before the Withers.

2. Rock Shandy

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Nothing wrong with a runner-up finish in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes and a third in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, at least on paper. But the fact that Rock Shandy was 21 ½ lengths behind Dortmund and Firing Line in the Lewis tells me this Lemon Drop Kid ridgling is a cut below the best of the best on the Derby trail. Even before the Robert B. Lewis, I thought Rock Shandy might be a better runner on grass, a surface on which he won his second career start and placed in a graded stakes. This is a very nice 3-year-old and, I think, a potential graded stakes winner on grass. I’d be interested to see him on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park in the Spiral Stakes. He could be very dangerous in that spot, but I don’t think he is the 2015 Kentucky Derby winner.

3. Blofeld 

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This is more simple math than an indictment of Blofeld, who has won all three of his races and looks like a potential star. This Quality Road colt won the Grade 2 Futurity Stakes and Grade 2 Nashua Stakes as a 2-year-old, the latter by five lengths over El Kabeir. But trainer Todd Pletcher said he is just getting back galloping now. Figure three weeks of steady gallops could lead to a first workout during the first week of March. Usually, five workouts is about the minimum before bringing a horse back in the type of race it would take to earn Kentucky Derby points, which means probably the Arkansas Derby or the Lexington Stakes might be the two realistic targets. The latter might not get a horse the points required to qualify for the Derby and everything would need to proceed flawlessly to make the Arkansas Derby. I suppose, it’s possible that maybe Blofeld is simply a freak who could come off the sideline with four workouts and win the Blue Grass Stakes or the Wood Memorial. But even if he were to win a major Derby prep in his first race in five months, how much would be left in the tank for the Kentucky Derby? 

CURRY'S DERBY TOP 10

1. Texas Red 2. American Pharoah 3. Upstart 4. Dortmund  5. Ocho Ocho Ocho 6. Ocean Knight 7. Far From Over 8. Khozan 9. Firing Line TIE-10. Far Right, The Great War

Racing Terms
Allowance race – A race for which the racing secretary drafts certain conditions to determine weights to be carried based on the horse’s age, sex and/or past performance.
Also-eligible – A horse officially entered for a race, but not permitted to start unless the field is reduced by scratches below a specified number.
Apprentice – A rider who has not ridden a certain number of winners within a specified period of time. Also known as a “bug,” from the asterisk used to denote the weight allowance such riders receive.
Blinkers – A cup-shaped device that limits a horse’s vision. Blinkers, often used to try to improve a horse’s focus, come in a variety of sizes and shapes to allow as little or as much vision as the trainer feels is necessary.
Bullet – The fastest workout of the day at a track at a particular distance.
Claiming race – A race in which each horse entered is eligible to be purchased at a set price.
Closer – A horse that runs best in the latter part of the race, coming from off the pace.
Connections – Persons identified with a horse, such as owner, trainer, jockey and stable employees.
Disqualification – Change in order of finish by stewards for an infraction of the rules.
Dam – The mother of a horse.
Entry – Two or more horses with common ownership that are paired as a single betting unit in one race.
Front-runner – A horse whose running style is to attempt to get on or near the lead at the start of the race and to continue there as long as possible.
Furlong – An eighth of a mile.
Graded race – A non-restricted race with added money or guaranteed purse value of $100,000 or more which has been run at least twice under similar conditions and on the same surface and has been assigned graded status for the year contested by the American Graded Stakes Committee.
Handicap – This race type refers to a race where the weights are assigned by the track’s racing secretary or handicapper based upon past performances.
Length – A measurement approximating the length of a horse, used to denote distance between horses in a race.
Off track – A track that has a wet surface and isn’t labeled as “fast”.
Pacesetter – The horse that is running in front (on the lead).
Past performances – A horse’s racing record, earnings, bloodlines and other data, presented in composite form.
Prep – A workout (or race) used to prepare a horse for a future engagement.
Post Parade – Horses going from paddock to starting gate past the stands. The post parade provides spectators with a chance to get a final look at the horse before the race.
Post Position – Position of stall in starting gate from which a horse begins a race.
Rabbit – A speed horse running as an entry with another, usually a come-from-behind horse. The rabbit is expected to set a fast pace to help the chances of its stablemate.
Rank – A horse that refuses to settle under a jockey’s handling in a race, running in a headstrong manner without respect to pace.
Scratch – To be taken out of a race before it starts.
Silks – Jacket and cap worn by jockeys.
Sire – Father of a foal.
Stakes – A race for which the owner usually must pay a fee to run a horse. The fees can be for nominating, maintaining eligibility, entering and starting, to which the track adds more money to make up the total purse. Some stakes races are by invitation and require no payment or fee.