Handicapping: Oaklawn Park Takes Center Stage May 2

With any semblance of normalcy out the window in these unprecedented times, the first Saturday in May finds us without a Kentucky Derby for the first time since 1945, and with split divisions of an Arkansas Derby (G1) for the first time since 1960.

A somewhat comforting familiarity is that both divisions of the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby are headed by unbeaten 3-year-olds trained by Bob Baffert: Charlatan in the first heat, and Nadal in the second.

In between those two races, which each bestow 170 qualifying points to the rescheduled Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) on Sept. 5, is a competitive renewal of the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) in which Baffert's enigmatic Improbable, the 2019 Arkansas Derby runner-up, is marooned out in post 14.

The races are linked in a pick three, and they are also the first three legs of a pick four that ends with a daunting 1 3/4-mile starter allowance with another full gate of 14 older marathoners. We'll try to get you to the cash-out leg and from there you're on your own.

Arkansas Derby: 1st division (OP, race 11, 6:29 ET): For many bettors, the pick three turns into a double and the pick four becomes a pick three thanks to Charlatan (1), who towers over this softer-looking heat based on two blowout wins at Santa Anita Park. 

As good as Charlatan looked in those races, bear in mind he broke from the outside post in four- and five-horse fields and is now on the rail against 10 (eight after expected scratches) more seasoned opponents. The strategy will obviously be "break and go" for this talented son of Speightstown , whose development to this point is strongly reminiscent of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify , who was campaigned by the same connections.

As if Charlatan needed any further help, his main early rival on paper was Shooters Shoot, who is to be scratched.

Charlatan may be a stand-alone in multi-race exotics, but vertical wagers could be intriguing for those looking to toss the two most accomplished horses in the field: Anneau d'Or (8), a close second in both the TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) and Los Alamitos Futurity (G2); and Basin (11), the winner of the Runhappy Hopeful Stakes (G1). A long list of horses—these two front and center—have underperformed coming out of the Juvenile and Hopeful, arguably the two biggest negative high-profile key races in the division last year.

This is a logical spot for Gouverneur Morris (4) to run well. However, the Constitution  colt looms a clear second choice off a wide run in the Curlin Florida Derby (G1) for Todd Pletcher, who has won the Arkansas Derby five times, most recently with Magnum Moon in 2018.

Potential bombers are Winning Impression (9) for Dallas Stewart, whose horses have displayed an uncanny knack for hitting the board at boxcar odds in recent years; and Crypto Cash (10), who was versatile and game to prevail on rain-soaked turf and fast dirt to end a promising juvenile season, and looks to bounce back after stumbling at the start of the Rushaway Stakes first time back.

A—1

B—4

C—9, 10 

Oaklawn Handicap (OP, race 12, 7:04 ET):  Six entrants are clustered in the 4-1 to 8-1 range, among them Tacitus (9), who is somewhat remarkably high-weighted at 121 pounds while looking for his first win since the Wood Memorial Presented by NYRA Bets (G2) early last spring.

To recall, Tacitus was pointed to the Dubai World Cup Presented by Emirates Airline (G1) but returned home after the entire World Cup program was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Mr Freeze (4) is a miler at heart but ran on well for second in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes Presented by Runhappy (G1) after setting a fast pace. He followed with a career-best effort to take the Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes (G2), which unfolded through demanding fractions as well.

Meanwhile, several others have been on or near the early lead through comparatively modest splits of late, specifically Trophy Chaser (2), Warrior's Charge (6), Combatant (7) and By My Standards (12). This could be an edge for Mr Freeze, who ostensibly won't have to work quite as hard to secure a good early position.

If Tacitus is afforded a chance as the co-second choice on the morning line, then Tax (11) has to be given consideration at 15-1 since they traded decisions at this distance last year in the Wood and Jim Dandy Stakes (G2). Tax was expected to be a pace factor in the Pegasus World Cup, but stumbled at the start and never recovered. He has trained forwardly since then, and it bears mention that two of his best races last year came when fresh.

I'm not sure what to make of Trophy Chaser at this point, but he has turned in two big-figure wins since stretching out to two turns, and the latest was at the expense of King for a Day, who remains the only horse to have finished in front of Maximum Security. At double-digit odds, he's in the mix.

Improbable (14) got ruined at the draw, just as in the Oaklawn Mile three weeks ago when he was forced to move wide into a hot pace and held well for second against favored Tom's d'Etat.

A—4

B—9, 11

C—2, 14

Arkansas Derby: 2nd division (OP, race 13, 7:43 ET): The top four morning-line choices in order are Nadal (5), King Guillermo (4), Wells Bayou (11) and Storm the Court (3). What they all have in common is a propensity to mix it up early, and based on their adjusted fractions the edge belongs to Nadal, who had to gun from the rail in the Rebel Stakes (G2) and held on resolutely despite having to fend off multiple challenges through a very strong pace.

Nadal is drawn outside Storm the Court and King Guillermo, which should allow him to play things off the break; he has reportedly been amenable to rating tactics in a series of solid recent workouts.

Silver Prospector (7) and Taishan (9) share a similar form pattern in that they each popped a career-best number to win their penultimate starts, followed by a regression when they middle-moved into hot paces in the Rebel and Oaklawn Stakes respectively. Either might rebound given a more favorable trip.

If the whole thing melts down Farmington Road (10) is second-time blinkers after a near-miss in the Oaklawn Stakes behind 46-1 bomber Mr. Big News, and he figures to be running on late.

A—5

B—7, 9

C—3, 4, 10, 11