Handicapping: Depth, Quality in Churchill Downs Stakes

There is a welcome return to graded stakes racing Saturday, May 23 as Churchill Downs puts on five stakes topped by the Matt Winn Stakes (G3), and Santa Anita Park cards a turf doubleheader with the Charles Whittingham Stakes (G2T) and Daytona Stakes (G3T), which each drew seven-horse fields.

Doug O'Neill sends out three of the septet in the 5 1/2-furlong Daytona, headed by morning-line favorite Wildman Jack and third choice Stubbins. The 1 1/4-mile Whittingham is topped by United, who was a close second in last year's renewal, and journeyed to Dubai to no avail for a World Cup program that was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Not counting also-eligibles the fields for the Churchill stakes go 8x14x14x12x14, and those looking for some additional "stimulus" money can try their luck in a pick five with a $500,000 guarantee.

Shawnee (race 7, 4:08 ET): The grade 1 winners Dunbar Road (4) and She's a Julie (8) lay over their rivals on class. Dunbar Road won four of her first five starts capped by the prestigious Alabama Stakes (G1), then settled for third in the Juddmonte Spinster Stakes (G1) and fifth in the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) when tried against older horses. She's a Julie boasts all three of the field's wins on this track, notably the La Troienne Presented By Inside Access From Chase (G1); she could wind up on an easy lead first time out since setting the pace in the Spinster.

The one price horse I'm backing up with is Vault (6), who is 5-1-0 from six starts at the distance, and takes blinkers off after running a troubled fourth in her first start of the year and first for Brad Cox.

A — 4, 8

B — 6

Tepin (race 8, 4:40 ET): Sharing (9) makes her first start since taking the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1T), and will be tested fully here by Alms (14), who is perfect from four starts but drew poorly.

Those two comprise the A-team, but we'll also back up with Hendy Woods (5) and In Good Spirits (6). The former began her career with two wins at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, while the latter showed promise in two front-running turf wins last fall including a maiden win on this course.

A — 9, 14

B — 5, 6

Blame (race 9, 5:12 ET): With all due respect to the Oaklawn Mile Stakes won by grade 1 winner Tom's d'Etat six weeks ago, this is the toughest non-graded stake of 2020 so far, containing nine horses that have won at the grade 3 level or higher.

Silver Dust (7) and Mr. Money (13) are taken to rebound from disappointing efforts. Silver Dust blew the start and was rushed to the lead in the New Orleans Classic (G2), but will be a handful if able to revert to his preferred stalk-and-pounce tactics. Mr. Money spun his wheels on a sealed wet track in the Oaklawn Mile off the bench, but reeled off four straight stakes scores through the heart of 2019, beginning with blowout triumphs in the Pat Day Mile (G3) and the Matt Winn locally.

Global Campaign (3) was sidelined nine months with a series of nagging issues and had a solid return win in a high-end optional claimer four weeks ago at Gulfstream Park.

Owendale (8) makes his first appearance since a second to Tom's d'Etat in the Clark Presented By Norton Healthcare (G1); the deep closer will need some racing luck.

American Anthem (11) and Diamond King (14) have been away since the Stymie in early March, but are well suited to the distance and run well fresh.

A — 7, 13

B — 3, 8

C — 11, 14

Matt Winn (race 10, 5:44 ET): Maxfield (10) is the marquee name in a revamped edition of the Matt Winn that now offers 85 qualifying points (50-20-10-5) for the rescheduled Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve (G1) on Sept. 5. The Godolphin homebred by Street Sense  looked good winning both outings last fall, including the Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (G1), but it's been over seven months and some minor ankle surgery since then.

We're also keying on two up-and-comers: Mystic Guide (1), another Godolphin homebred by Ghostzapper , is out of the five-time grade 1 winner Music Note and improved sharply when stretched out for a maiden win second time out. Pneumatic (2), a Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred by Uncle Mo , won both starts at Oaklawn Park and has trained forwardly since then.

Ny Traffic (6) cuts back from the 1 3/16-mile Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) and may wind up the controlling speed.

A —1, 2, 10

B — 6

War Chant (race 11, 6:16 ET): A pace showdown looms between two of the main contenders, Hieronymus (6) and Smooth Like Strait (9). That could set things up for Field Pass (5), who has been idle since taking the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), and /or Billy Batts (13), whose off the board finish on dirt sans Lasix in the Samba Saudi Derby Cup can be excused.

Bodecream (2) was close to Hieronymus twice over the winter, and he may trip out nicely.

Street Ready (11) overcame an impossibly wide journey to win an optional claimer last out and has improved numbers-wise with every turf start.

A — 5, 13

B — 2, 11

C — 6, 9

Best of luck and stay safe out there.