André Fabre has proved time and again that a prep race is only that, before wringing major improvement three weeks later when the main target comes around.
Backers of Victor Ludorum in the Emirates Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French Two Thousand Guineas, G1) can be reasonably assured that they will see a much better performance June 1 in the classic test for 3-year-old colts than when he finished a moderate third in the Prix de Fontainebleau (G3) last month, and the layers have taken no chances in making him favorite to overturn that form with The Summit and Ecrivain.
Three wins in the space of six weeks marked him out as a serious talent at 2, one who looked likely to improve physically at 3.
"Victor Ludorum needed the race in the Fontainebleau and it wasn't the best of efforts because he was drawn wide and then pulled a bit," Fabre said. "All his work has satisfied me and I think he will run up to his best. This could be sharp enough for him and I've always had it in mind that he is an ideal horse for the Jockey Club, but he is good enough to win a race like this and I expect him to run well."
Unlike the fillies' trial, defeat in the Fontainebleau has been no bar to future success and Victor Ludorum still looks an exciting prospect.
The conundrum for punters is whether his apparent sluggishness in the straight at ParisLongchamp was just down to rustiness, or whether he is more of a galloper than a colt with an instant turn of foot. If it is the latter then Deauville's dragstrip mile could just catch him out for speed.
In the Fontainebleau Ecrivain was never asked to seriously chase The Summit, who already had a race under his belt, and he looks almost sure to run his race.
Kenway has been something of a mercurial performer and is more exposed than most but was only just behind Victor Ludorum, while the memory of the acceleration he deployed to a group 3 win last September is hard to shake.
Away from the main trial Fabre has two more interesting candidates.
Alson was outstayed by Victor Ludorum on heavy ground in the Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere-Grand Criterium (G1) in October and should be suited by this lesser test of stamina, though he will be having his first start of the year.
Arapaho may not have achieved a lot when he won the listed Prix du Pont-Neuf over seven furlongs but the manner of his success suggested he could play a major hand.
"Alson has to adapt and I don't want him to make the running as that would be too hard first time out," Fabre said. "He will be covered up and we'll see how he finishes. He is in good shape and he's going to run well. Arapaho has a lot of class and a good turn of foot. I think he has a role to play in this race."
Shinning Ocean has been supplemented and looks the pick of his owner's two runners, while Reshabar was impressive in a conditions race at Chantilly and lines up for a trainer who does not take much notice of the ante-post markets when deciding on his group 1 entries.