Right time, wrong place. The Hurworth Bloodstock Coronation Cup (G1) was always scheduled to be run June 5, on Epsom Oaks (G1) Day. The Oaks is still a month away due to COVID-19 schedule changes, but the Coronation Cup keeps its place, albeit at Newmarket.
The main factor to consider regarding race conditions is differing course topographies. Epsom turns and swoops, Newmarket gives far more room for creative freedom until the Dip. That matters, considering that Ghaiyyath is in the field.
It is striking how many wide-margin group 1 winners prove frustrating. Ghaiyyath, who won the Longines Grosser Preis von Baden (G1) by 14 lengths last year, just has not had enough chances to show how devastating he can be. That is partly down to fragility, like in the case of Harbinger, but also partly his own fault, as with Hawk Wing.
The rule of thumb is that if Ghaiyyath is allowed to do his own thing up front, then best of luck to those trying to catch him. If he is not afforded that luxury, he can be quite easily disheartened. He also might need to be caught fresh, but after more than three months off the track, that can be taken as read.
"If he turns up on his 'A' game, then they have got him to beat," trainer Charlie Appleby said. "His last run in Dubai was over a mile and a quarter, and this step back up to a mile and a half will suit him—it's his best trip. He's in great order and looks the finished article now as a 5-year-old."
His jockey, William Buick, should be able to make the front in this seven-runner field. Nothing else has a strong tendency to lead: Frankie Dettori has been known to take the initiative on Stradivarius when the occasion calls for it, and German recruit Alounak is similarly a mere part-timer. The only way it is imagined that Ghaiyyath will be taken on is if one of the other jockeys fancies ruffling his feathers.
Stradivarius dropping back to 12 furlongs has been on many of his fans' wish lists for some time. He has a tremendous attitude, as well as an above-average change of pace for a stayer, so this little adventure in advance of another Gold Cup (G1) bid certainly piques curiosity. He might be the dominant stayer, but winning a group 1 over 12 furlongs would rank among his greatest achievements.
"Let's be very clear that this is a trial for another crack at the Ascot Gold Cup," trainer John Gosden said. "It's not ideal to be starting him off at a mile and a half, but the race is on our doorstep and it comes in a good slot. He's in good form going into the race and won't mind any rain as he goes on anything. It's a long time since he's run on the Rowley Mile, which was when he was beaten by Cracksman as a 2-year-old."
Defoe is the defending champion, but how much that counts for is a moot point. He has also been first and second in the past two runnings of the Jockey Club Stakes (G2), which as an early season group race over 12 furlongs on the Rowley Mile feels like a reasonable parallel with this year's Coronation Cup.
"He's in good form and looks great," said Defoe's trainer, Roger Varian. "He's trained nicely for the race, and I think he's improved a few lengths off his Meydan run in the spring. It's a warm, select field, but I'm happy with conditions and happy to be there."
Anthony Van Dyck and Broome, last year's Investec Derby (G1) first and fourth, respectively, are on the hunt for a group 1 beyond 3. A win would boost the former's stud value, which is probably suffering from the perception that last year's Derby was below average. They may at least offer some sort of handle on Aidan O'Brien's string, with no runners having been sent out of Ballydoyle since Irish racing closed in March.