Improbable Defeats Higher Power in Hollywood Gold Cup
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Photo: Benoit Photo
Improbable rolls to victory in the Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita Park
A new year, a new Improbable.
Following a 3-year-old campaign that was largely met with disappointment, Improbable shined in the second start of his 4-year-old season June 6 by winning the $300,500 Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) at Santa Anita Park, his first graded stakes victory since the 2018 Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity (G1) as a juvenile.
Hustled away from the gate after breaking a step slowly under Drayden Van Dyke, Improbable was well positioned thereafter in the 1 1/4-mile race, rated just off longshot leader Brown Storm. He pressed that one through easy fractions of :23.24, :47.57, and 1:11.84 for the first three-quarters of a mile, surged to the lead with a mile in 1:36.26, and drew away for a comfortable 3 1/4-length victory over Higher Power, the only other grade 1 winner in the field of six.
Tenfold, the winner of the 2018 Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) and 2019 Pimlico Special Stakes (G3), rallied for third. Brown Storm faded to fourth ahead of Midcourt and Parsimony.
A son of City Zip owned by China Horse Club, SF Racing, and WinStar Farm, the Bob Baffert-trained Improbable was timed in 2:01.69 on a fast track. He returned $4.60 as the favorite.
"I got the consolation prize," quipped Baffert, whose Authentic was upset as the favorite in Saturday's richest race, the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby (G1). "I honestly thought I could win three races today. This horse has been training so well. … Drayden had him in the perfect spot and he had plenty left for the run home.
"I'm happy for the team. Everyone thought this horse was a turf horse, and I thought he needed the dirt. This horse is only going to get better."
Improbable's victory followed a wide second to Tom's d'Etat in his season debut in the April 11 Oaklawn Mile Stakes, in which he was beaten three-quarters of a length. That effort was one of his best since his 2-year-old season when he went 3-for-3 and became a leading prospect for the 2019 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1).
Though he placed in a couple of major stakes last year and won the ungraded Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar, Improbable faltered on the largest stages, finishing out of the money in the Derby and Preakness Stakes (G1) as the favorite in both races.
Pleased by how he had trained in recent weeks, Baffert was excited to run him in the Hollywood Gold Cup, despite the fact the colt had not won beyond 1 1/16 miles.
Improbable gave Baffert his seventh win in the 81st Hollywood Gold Cup, which was run as the Gold Cup at Santa Anita from 2014-19 after the closure of Hollywood Park.
Over the past two years, the winner has gone on to capture the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1)—Vino Rosso in 2019 and Accelerate in 2018.
Improbable is alone at the wire in the Hollywood Gold Cup
It was the first Hollywood Gold Cup victory for Van Dyke, who has been up for all of Improbable's wins.
"It's awesome. Walking back, it's just kind of getting it into my head, I just won the Hollywood Gold Cup. There's so much history in that race," the young rider said. "To be a part of it, I'm blessed.
"It was how he has been working in the mornings. I worked him several times going seven furlongs, and these gallop outs that he would give me, it was just unbelievable. … He was sitting on a big one, and he ran a big one."
Higher Power, three wide around both turns while stalking the pace, rebounded from a last-place finish in the Jan. 25 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes Presented by Runhappy (G1) at Gulfstream Park to be well clear of all but the winner.
The John Sadler trainee won the $1 Million TVG Pacific Classic Stakes (G1) last summer at Del Mar and was third in the Awesome Again Stakes (G1) and Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita.
Improbable has won five of 12 starts and $1,129,520. He is the lone winner from two foals to race out of the A.P. Indy mare Rare Event, and was bred in Kentucky by St. George Farm and G. Watts Humphrey Jr. He was a $200,000 purchase by WinStar's Maverick Racing and China Horse Club from Taylor Made Sales Agency's consignment to the 2017 Keeneland September Yearling Sale.